Chinese leader Xi Jinping is hosting Brazil's president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, in Beijing on Sunday, seeking to deepen ties with another diplomatic ally following his three-day visit to Russia that took place earlier this week.
The state visits come at a time when China is trying to present itself as an important global power that can rival the US.
China's trade relationship with Brazil is set to take center stage, as Lula is bringing a delegation of 240 business representatives with him to Beijing. Trade flow between China and Brazil currently amounts to $150 billion annually, and Brazilian exports to China reached $89 billion in 2022.
China now invests in a wide range of sectors in Brazil, and experts say Beijing wants to tap into the South American country's rich resources and market size.
"Brazil has a lot of resources that are of interest to China, and soy from Brazil is a major component of China's overall thinking on food security," said Margaret Myers, director of the Asia and Latin America Program at the Inter-American Dialogue (IAD).
Myers added that, given the size of the Brazilian market, it was a natural choice for Chinese companies to make it one of their first destinations in Latin America.
"The welcoming of China, Chinese engagement, and Chinese investment to Brazil by the Lula administration in 2010 helped grow the bilateral dynamic," she told DW.
Other analysts point out that Lula's trip aims to further expand Chinese investment in Brazil, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
Evandro de Menezes de Carvalho, a professor of international law at Brazil's FGV University, said that Brazil hopes to attract Chinese companies that can help foster growth in areas like automobiles and green energy.
Building China-Brazil agriculture business ties
The agricultural sector will feature prominently during Lula's five-day trip to China, as 90 representatives from the agricultural industry will travel to China with the Brazilian president.
Among them, the meat industry is particularly eager to gain more access to the Chinese market, as the world's largest meat company, JBS SA, has sent 10 representatives as part of the Brazilian delegation, according to Reuters news agency.
Leland Lazarus, the associate director for national security at Florida International University in the US, pointed out that while China views Brazil as an important pillar in its engagement with Latin America, Lula will try to strike a balance between prioritizing courting Chinese trade and investment while taking a tough stance on China when it comes to environmental issues.
"Lula won't be so keen to simply play second fiddle," he told DW. "He will likely continue to find ways to boost exports of frozen bovine meat, soybeans, iron ore, and crude petroleum to China's massive market. At the same time, [he is likely to demand] China do more to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and [hold] Chinese state-owned enterprises operating in Brazil accountable for damaging Brazil's precious environment."
Concerns about Chinese dominance
Although Brazil hopes to maintain its deep economic engagement with China, the dominance of Chinese companies across many sectors in Brazil sparks unease among Brazilian businesses and industry leaders.
In a recent piece published by the US-based think tank Global Americans, Even Ellis, an expert on Latin American Studies at the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, pointed out that Chinese businesses have invested an estimated $70 billion in Brazil over the last two decades.
Additionally, Chinese businesses have projects in 23 of Brazil's 26 states, which span across sectors like mining, agriculture, industry, telecommunications, finance, and medicine.
Myers from IAD said that industries and interest groups have expressed growing concerns about China's engagement in certain sectors.
According to her, the manufacturing sector in Brazil has been resisting open trade with China, as they worry it would negatively impact Brazilian industry and competitiveness. "There are many concerns about Chinese dominance across different sectors," she said.
While Brazil is not a signatory to China's flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Myers said the topic will likely be brought up when Xi and Lula meet on Sunday.
"Signing onto the BRI will result in some economic benefits for Brazil," she said, adding that it was critically important for China to garner support not just for the BRI, but also for other wide-ranging China-backed initiatives.
The future of BRICS
While bilateral trade issues will dominate the agenda of Lula's trip, there are also important geopolitical implications when the Chinese and Brazilian leaders meet.
The two countries signed a ten-year cooperation plan in 2012, after Beijing upgraded the bilateral relationship to a "comprehensive strategic partnership."
China also sent former Vice President Wang Qishan to attend Lula's inauguration earlier this year, highlighting the importance of Beijing's relationship with Brasilia.
As both countries are members of the BRICS group, some experts expect Xi and Lula to discuss the current status and future prospects of the alliance, including China's close partnership with Russia and how Moscow might fit into the group.
Myers told DW that she expects the two leaders' discussion to also include the ongoing war in Ukraine. "The Ukraine war will come up in a much more pragmatic sense, including the aspects related to BRICS and the implications of the conflict for the platform," she said.
Lazarus from Florida International University added that Xi and Lula will likely present BRICS as "a successful framework for Global South cooperation."
"While Xi may seek to claim economic leadership of BRICS, Lula will likely claim moral leadership on climate protection," he said.
Additionally, Brazil's role as a major player in South America also can offer a balancing effect amid the rising tensions between China and the US, said Dawisson Lopes, a professor of international and comparative politics at the Federal University of Minas Gerais in Brazil.
"It's crucial for both China and the US to maintain good relationships with the largest country in South America," he told DW.
