The current trends of emissions project levels of future warming and suggest transition to a low carbon economy to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100.
An Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group III (WG3) report, published on Monday, shows how transformative systems can ensure a safer climate and a sustainable economy, while also making it evident that the world is off-track, with significant hurdles to change, said a press release issued on Tuesday.
Business as usual, damaging land management, fossil fuel subsidies and the ongoing construction of coal, oil and gas infrastructure are obstructing the well-planned and widescale transition society sorely needs, the report says.
Current trend of human greenhouse gas emissions
The report says there is a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to limit warming to 1.5°C by 2100. Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions reached 59 GtCO2eq in 2019, the highest level since 1990, primarily driven by fossil fuels and industry. About 34% of human emissions came from the energy supply sector, 24% from industry, 22% from agriculture, forestry and land use, 15% from transport and 6% from buildings.
Bangladesh’s GHG emissions also increased significantly—by 218%—between 1990 and 2017 and energy is the leading source of GHG in the country.
Fossil fuels, namely oil, coal and natural gas, still make up 77% of Bangladesh’s energy mix. Electricity generation in Bangladesh is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, with 79% of electricity generated from natural gas.
In 2020, Bangladesh provided $968 million in electricity consumption subsidies, $449 million in gas consumption subsidies, and $7 million in oil consumption subsidies, for a total amount of nearly $1.424 billion.
While the rollout of renewables has increased over time with the addition of some solar, the much more rapid increase of natural gas has resulted in the share of renewables in the overall mix decreasing by approximately 8.6% between 2014-2019.
In the longer term, continuing to rely on fossil fuels would not be compatible for Bangladesh with the global efforts to reach a 1.5°C pathway.
Hence, to achieve 1.5°C, the world must reduce annual CO2 emissions by 48% by 2030, and reach net zero by 2050, while reducing methane emissions by a third by 2030 and almost halving them by 2050.
Prof AKM Saiful Islam of the Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) (IWFM) of Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Buet) stated that: “Despite all our efforts we are not going to avoid reaching 1.5°C global warming by the next two decades.
“However, a more rapid, deep and immediate reduction of GHG of 43% by 2030 including a methane reduction of 34% would stabilize global warming to 1.5°C by the end of this century after the temporary overshooting.”
The countries that emit the least continue to be the most vulnerable to climate impacts. In 2019, least developed countries (LDCs) are estimated to have emitted just 3.3% of global GHG emissions. The top 10% of households by per capita emissions contribute 34-45% of global consumption-based household GHG emissions. Those with per capita emissions in the bottom 50% contribute just 13-15%.
What do current levels of climate ambition mean for the world?
Since the AR5 WGIII report and Paris Agreement, climate change has shot up the agenda of politicians and the media, but it is still far from gaining the level of attention and action the scale of the climate crisis requires.
The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) announced prior to COP26 would likely mean passing 1.5°C during the 21st century. With no increased ambition after 2030, we might see global warming of 2.8°C by 2100.
However, Bangladesh has set an unconditional emissions reduction target of 5% below business as usual by 2030.
Conditional on international support, it has an emissions reduction target of 15% below business as usual for the power, transport and industry sectors.
Moreover, the Eighth Five-Year-Plan encourages renewable energy. It places importance on solar, wind and imported hydropower while discouraging high fuel import dependency.
According to the 2016 Power System Master Plan, Bangladesh aims to add two GW renewable energy projects to achieve an installed capacity of 2,470MW by 2021 and 3,864MW by 2041.
The draft National Solar Energy Roadmap 2021-2041 recommends a new solar target of up to 30GW by 2041 to address the slow progress in developing renewable energy.
Immediate, deep GHG emissions cuts and systemic, transformative actions are needed to deliver a 1.5°C world
Net-zero government and corporate pledges are booming, but need a stronger emphasis on rapid, near-term action in order to be consistent with a pathway to 1.5°C.
The scale of the task is vast and transformative, but possible with tech options already available.
Substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use across the full energy sector, the deployment of low-emission energy sources, switching to alternative energy carriers, and energy efficiency and conservation are central to achieving this.
Solar and wind energy, electrification of urban systems, greening in cities, energy efficiency, demand-side management, improved forest and crop/grassland management, and reduced food waste and loss are all supported by the public, technically viable and increasingly cost-effective.
Prof Saiful also reiterated that: “There are mitigation options that exist in every sector eg, energy, land use, industry, cities, urban areas, buildings and transportation, to reduce GHG emissions by at least half by 2030”.
Moreover, the report clearly shows near-term dates for the stranding of fossil fuel assets in a 1.5°C world, with recommendations on how the use of oil and gas, in particular, should be limited, with CCS to mitigate emissions from remaining installations.
If existing fossil fuel infrastructure is not phased out early, and instead continues to operate on historical patterns, future cumulative emissions of 660 GtCO2 would exhaust the remaining 1.5°C with a limited overshoot carbon budget of 510GtCO2. Further installation of unabated fossil fuel infrastructure will “lock in” GHG emissions and put 1.5°C out of reach.
More investment
Estimates of the cost of mitigation for the low carbon transition tend to be overestimated, as they have generally not been offset by corresponding declines in polluting infrastructure investment, or the benefits of mitigation in terms of avoided climate impacts and reduced cost of adaptation.
Between 2020 and 2030, annual investments need to be three to six times greater than current levels across all sectors to limit warming to 1.5°C.
Removing fossil fuel subsidies would reduce emissions, improve public revenue and macroeconomic performance, yield other environmental and sustainable development benefits, and could reduce GHG emissions up to 10% by 2030.
Accelerated financial support for developing countries from developed countries is a critical enabler to enhance mitigation and address inequities in access to finance, including its costs, terms and conditions, and economic vulnerability to climate change.
Prof Saiful mentioned that: “Limiting global warming below 1.5°C would benefit highly vulnerable countries like Bangladesh by reducing adaptation costs, avoiding irreversible losses and damages as well as achieving its sustainable development goals by 2030.”
Dr Saleemul Huq, director of International Centre for Climate Change and Development, said: “As the WG3 report completes the three working groups for the IPCC's sixth assessment reports, they collectively present a major game-changing series of reports with the WG1 report showing for the very first time that impacts are now unequivocally attributable to human-induced climate change while WG2 reported clear evidence of the losses and damages caused as a result.
“Now WG3 binds together the need for efforts to be redoubled to tackle mitigation, adaptation as well as now loss and damage. This message is being heard loud and clear in Bangladesh which is one of the most vulnerable developing countries to climate change but is in the process of making itself more resilient.”
