After taking the helm since the fall of Sheikh Hasina, the interim government is facing a severe economic and political crisis exacerbated by a devastating flash flood in the southern region of Bangladesh that hasn’t been seen in decades. The flood which led to the death of 31 people since last reported affected 5.6 million people in 11 districts directly, many of whom have lost everything. The catastrophic flood has left the people of this country debating on the causes behind it.
Many took to social media blaming the Govt of India for opening the Dumbur Dam. However experts in Bangladesh pointed out excessive rainfall as the primary cause of the flood. Whether or not the recent flood was political, it has opened up the fault lines in Dhaka-New Delhi relations due to a lack of consensus on the Transboundary rivers considered a serious domestic issue in downstream Bangladesh. Bangladesh is shaped by the silt of three mighty rivers originating from the Himalayas -- Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna. Approximately 405 rivers flow through Bangladesh, of which 57 are transboundary rivers. Among these, 54 rivers are shared between Bangladesh and India. The total basin area of these three rivers is approximately 1.72 million square kilometers, of which only 7% lies within Bangladesh.
On August 23, after one of the worst floods in the history of Bangladesh and amid heavy anti-India rhetorics, Chief Advisor Professor Muhammad Yunus shared the idea of developing a high-level mechanism between Bangladesh and India to tackle emergencies like floods. But Bangladesh and India already have a Joint River Commission in place to mutually work on issues of mutual interest including river water sharing of common rivers, sharing of flood data, addressing river pollution conducting joint studies on sedimentation management, river bank protection, etc. But it hasn’t been very effective in tackling these pertaining issues between the two neighbours.
Formation of the Joint River Commission
In March 1972, through a joint declaration by the Prime Ministers of the People's Republic of Bangladesh and the Republic of India, the JRC was formed under the Indo-Bangladesh Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Peace. This involved comprehensive surveys of the shared rivers by experts from both countries, the development and implementation of projects for flood control, detailed flood forecasting and warning systems, and studies on major flood control and irrigation projects. The objective was to ensure the equitable utilization of water resources for the mutual benefit of the peoples of both countries. Additionally, the feasibility of connecting power grids in areas adjacent to Bangladesh and India was to be explored.
Following this declaration, on November 24, 1972, the statute of the India-Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission was signed, establishing a permanent commission. The aim was to maintain continuous communication and maximize joint efforts to ensure the optimal benefits from the shared rivers. To facilitate the work on the Bangladesh side, the Joint Rivers Commission, Bangladesh was established as an affiliated office of the Ministry of Water Resources.
JRC, a symbol of friendship or failure?
The JRC since its inception in 1972, has been able to materialize only one water-sharing deal- ‘The Ganges Water Sharing Treaty” in 1996 out of 54 common rivers. Lack of political will from India and the incapacity of subsequent governments of Bangladesh to be persuasive. Out of 208 meetings that were supposed to be held over the last 52 years as per the rules of procedure, only 38 meetings have taken place, the last of which was held in 2022 after a gap of 12 years. Even the Ganges water-sharing treaty took 25 years to materialize. Himanshu Thakkar from the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People rightly pointed out the complexity regarding negotiations on transboundary rivers, stating
As climate change exacerbates the frequency and intensity of floods, water-sharing agreements with effective cooperation in the areas of transboundary floods will become even more crucial for ensuring regional stability
“In any water agreement, there’s an upstream and downstream dynamic. The upstream country often sees no direct reason to enter into an agreement, as it doesn’t immediately face consequences unless compelled by other factors. For example, if two countries are closely tied economically through trade and other ventures, it’s easier to negotiate agreements.”
Pavel Partha, an ecology and biodiversity conservation researcher, and director at Bangladesh Resource Centre for Indigenous Knowledge (BARCIK) while talking to Dhaka Tribune opined that,
“JRC can change this dominant narrative that water is used as a political tool used by upstream nations to subjugate the downstream. They can minimize the social and political controversy. They should be more scientific and follow the international river and water treaties with ecological and humanistic approaches. We have yet to see a regime that sees the common river as the lifeline stream of nature and culture. Need to ensure the justice of the transboundary lifestream.”
JRC could be an excellent platform to build upon the bilateral relationship between India and Bangladesh and mitigate the water dispute without having to involve a third party as a mediator. The commission has lost much of its executive power and has been limited to a consultation platform. The Ganges water-sharing agreement is set to expire in 2026 with no clear sight of what is to come beyond 2026. The advisor for Environment, Forest, and Climate Change has recently signaled about raising the issue in the international arena however without ratifying the 1997 United Nations Watercourses Convention it will not bring the desired results.
The need for a reset in Bangladesh-India Relations
The bilateral relationship between Bangladesh and India stands at a critical juncture. As both nations face new regional and global challenges, there is an opportunity to redefine this relationship based on the principles of non-interference, mutual respect, and shared benefits. India's long-standing ties with the Awami League, while valuable, should evolve into a broader partnership with Bangladesh itself, transcending individual political affiliations. This shift is not only essential for Bangladesh's development but also for India's regional and global ambitions.
With the potential change in leadership in Dhaka, New Delhi is presented with a unique opportunity to recalibrate its approach. Moving beyond party politics, India can strengthen its position as a genuine ally to Bangladesh, prioritizing equitable relations that reflect the aspirations of both nations. Such an approach would help India solidify its influence in South Asia while also countering rising anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, which has emerged due to unresolved issues like the transboundary water-sharing agreement.
The recent floods in Bangladesh have highlighted the vulnerabilities faced by the population, particularly those living downstream. These natural disasters underscore the urgency of resolving the longstanding dispute over the sharing of river waters, such as the Teesta River, which remains a point of contention between the two nations. The failure to resolve not only harms Bangladesh but also risks damaging the potential of the relationship with India in the future. For India, failure to address these concerns could alienate a key regional partner at a time when it seeks to expand its influence globally.
As climate change exacerbates the frequency and intensity of floods, water-sharing agreements with effective cooperation in the areas of transboundary floods will become even more crucial for ensuring regional stability. India and Bangladesh must find a workable and equitable solution, one that prioritizes the well-being of both populations. This cooperation would not only alleviate immediate concerns but also demonstrate India's commitment to a relationship based on mutual respect and shared interests.
Tanmoy Dhar is a freelance contributor.
