Little did I realise when I wrote on the Indian elections a few months ago that the Indian voters would create history by giving the BJP an unprecedented mandate to make its leader Narendra Modi the 15th prime minister of India .
The former chief minister of Gujarat, Narendra Modi, a staunch believer in Hindutva, will be sworn in as the prime minister of India in a grand ceremony at the Rashtrapati Bhavan in New Delhi, having won an astounding victory on the planks of change, development, and stability.
But despite having such a comfortable cushion of 336 seats in the 543-seat lower house of parliament, the Lok Sabha, will it all be a bed of roses for the Modi administration?
One of the biggest challenges to be faced internally is the threat posed by the Maoists. The outgoing prime minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, had described the Maoists as the biggest internal security threat to the country. It is widely believed that Modi will handle the question of security in a tit for tat way. He is quite aware that the people of India would love to see tough measures being taken, be it against the Maoists or the “jihadis.”
It must be remembered that Narendra Modi has been given a huge mandate, and that carries huge expectations. The changes promised cannot come overnight and so “management of expectations” would be important. His decision-making capability is well-known and this could give him a head-start in kick-starting the economy and give India the status of a large “economic” power.
On the economy, Dr Jagdish Bhagwati, a free-market advocate, has been brought in as an adviser, and this could help get more FDIs. It is a good omen that the stocks are rising and the rupee has also seen an increase in its value. Modi is known to be industry-friendly and so there could well be more investment in this sector. He has to show visible progress in development, notably in industrial infrastructure throughout the country.
Inflation is a major issue. Price hike of essential commodities has to be tackled. Added to that is the price of fuels. The government has to cough up a huge amount in the form of subsidies for diesel. Change in the price of diesel has a spiral effect on the domestic economy. Bringing the economy back on track would be one of his biggest priorities.
One of the biggest criticisms of the UPA 2 government was that it was inactive and very slow in making decisions. It is thought that with the induction of the Modi government, the policy paralysis era in India will come to an end.
Another problem that would need attention is the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of parliament, where the NDA is poorly represented. Out of the 250 seats in Rajya Sabha, five seats are now vacant. The UPA presently holds 102 seats (Congress 68) while the NDA has only 65 seats (BJP 46). The NDA, therefore, would have to depend on the regional parties, mainly BSP, Trinamool Congress, and AIADMK, for attaining majority. All these parties are opposed to the NDA, though AIADMK has since softened its attitude. It is felt that this would not be a big hurdle, as the opposition with such paltry numbers in the other house, the Lok Sabha would not like to rock the boat.
Modi would have to, on the one hand, give some freebies to some states, and, on the other, riding on the present wave, reap the benefits in a number of upcoming state assembly elections. Victories in the state assembly elections would help the NDA get more Rajya Sabha seats. One-third of the seats of Rajya Sabha are up for elections in 2016 and only then could the NDA bring the situation in its favour.
Infiltration from Pakistan is a major issue that Modi needs to take care of and this is an ongoing issue. Modi also promised during his election campaign in the east and north-east of the country that he would firmly handle infiltration from Bangladesh. Whether this was election rhetoric or not is yet to be seen.
Relations with neighbours and foreign policy would be the two matters that need a closer look when the new administration takes office.
Inviting Saarc leaders to Modi’s swearing-in ceremony was a bold and smart move. He is trying to show that he is extending a hand of friendship to all the neighbouring states and also making it absolutely clear that India is an emerging power in this part of the world. While Modi’s move has been appreciated in India, it came under sharp criticism as well from some quarters. About inviting Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, cynics ask what Modi’s reaction would have been if Congress had sent a similar invitation. Others try to remind the BJP leader that in an election rally, he ridiculed the former government for serving “chicken biriyani” to a former Pakistani prime minister.
Inviting Sri Lanka’s President Mahinda Rajapakse did not go very well in Tamil Nadu. BJP’s ally MDMK’s leader Vaiko and also the state’s chief minister Jayalalitha, vehemently opposed the Sri Lankan president’s visit.
Regarding the Indian foreign policy outline and relations with its neighbours, there has always been a broad consensus, irrespective of which party comes to power. But things have changed in this election campaign and so Modi’s moves would be very closely watched.
On the question of relationship with Bangladesh, the problem relating to river water-sharing between the two countries would need the help of the state governments concerned. Finding a solution to this problem would be complex. On the Afghanistan-Pakistan situation, this could be a foreign policy thorn to look out for more because of the impending withdrawal of US and allied troops.
Finally, it must not be forgotten that Narendra Modi is a staunch supporter of Hindutva and came up from the ranks of Rashtriya Swayamasevak Sangha (RSS).
There is a fear that there could be a remote button to be pressed by RSS in the running of the government. As one RSS leader said, they would “inspire” the Modi government but would not “interfere” with it. Modi may have toned down on this issue after the election, but hardcore Hindutva leaders around him may not cool off. One has to see what happens in reality.
Narendra Modi must also remember that he is to become the prime minister of the whole country, and he rightly said that the government is “of the country” and as such, he needs to govern keeping social inclusion in mind.
The whole world’s eyes are now closely focused on Narendra Modi, the next prime minister of India, and how he tackles the economy and shapes the country’s foreign policy.
