Well, that’s that, then. The leader of the opposition’s statement that, as of today, she considers the AL government to be illegitimate would seem to sound the death knell for any possibility of compromise between the two sides. The BNP has pushed all its money into the centre of the table: they are all in.
In truth, this comes as no surprise. The BNP had already stated that they were determined to hold their rally today, at any cost. And after the rejection of their formula for polls-time government, they had nowhere else to go. They have played what could have been a winning hand with shocking incompetence and left themselves with few options.
Here we have the opposition to an increasingly unpopular government. Opinion polls as well as recent elections suggest that they are more popular than the government.
Not only that, but on the main issue of difference between the two parties, whether the AL could be trusted to hold a free and fair election, or whether the caretaker government needed to be reinstated, or some other mechanism to ensure that a neutral administration oversee the upcoming elections, they enjoyed a massive advantage over the government.
The BNP shot itself in the foot with its comical proposal for holding the elections. It could easily have stuck to its guns and insisted that the caretaker government system be reinstated in its entirety, a position supported by anywhere from 70-90% of the country, according to polls. With similar numbers opining that an election without BNP participation would be illegitimate, they held a powerful veto over proceedings.
Alternatively, the party could have compromised by accepting the prime minister’s formula of an all-party cabinet, but demanded parity between AL and BNP, and insisted on a neutral head of government to head the polls-time administration.
This would likely have been unacceptable to the government, but it would have been an eminently reasonable proposition that would have put the government on the back foot and maintained the upper hand for the opposition.
In the event, the formula that the opposition did come up with was so slipshod and laughable that it was easy for the AL to dismiss it out of hand. Not only was it a proposal that suggested the BNP was not serious about finding a solution, it was a proposal that suggested the BNP was not serious, full stop.
The fact that they were apparently unaware that there were only 18 advisers from 1996 and 2001 to start with, and not 20, and that 4 of the 18 were dead made the BNP proposal look like amateur hour. Added to the fact that no one had apparently thought to ask the remaining 14 advisers whether they would consent to such an arrangement, and that the BNP seemed unaware that to institute its plan would require amendment to the constitution, and what conclusion can one draw except one of a party that is unserious.
The BNP subsequently clarified that they weren’t wedded to their proposal, and that the only real issue was the unacceptability of the PM as head of the interim polls-time government, but by that time the damage had already been done.
In fairness, it is not as though the AL has evinced much interest in reaching a compromise solution, either. The AL has clearly decided that it is better off to hold elections without the BNP and its game-plan all along has been to goad the BNP into boycotting rather than to try to accommodate them. For a party that is well behind in the opinion polls, this makes perfect sense. In fact, it is precisely the BNP game-plan from 2007 in reverse, when the shoe was on the other foot.
So here we are. The AL has responded to the BNP rally by calling on its own shock troops to resist what it calls BNP anarchy by any means necessary. In addition, the home minister has confirmed that a special force is on standby. The stage is set for the first showdown.
All indications are that the BNP does not have the street strength to bring the government down or even to fight it to a stalemate, as the AL was able to do in 2006 and 2007. This is both good news and bad.
The good news is that we can hopefully be spared the kind of running street battles we had to endure during the days of the Iajuddin interregnum.
The bad news is that if that isn’t going to work this time around, I very much doubt that the opposition will quietly fold its hand and go home. The stakes are simply too high. There will be more to come, and it won’t be pretty.
