Bangladesh's recent parliamentary election, which returned the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) to power with a two-thirds majority, marks a potential paradigm shift in the country's foreign policy trajectory. With Sheikh Hasina's long political era now over, the BNP, led by Tarique Rahman, is expected to trigger a recalibration of Dhaka's relations with regional actors such as India, Pakistan, and China.
In his post-election statements, Tarique Rahman articulated a “Bangladesh First” approach, asserting that foreign policy would be guided by national interest and the welfare of the people.
Against this backdrop, the article examines whether the BNP government’s foreign policy will constitute a significant departure from the previous administration or a pragmatic adjustment shaped by structural and regional constraints.
India-Bangladesh relations at a crossroads
Under the Hasina Administration, New Delhi cultivated close ties with Bangladesh as a crucial partner as regional powers India and China competed for influence.
However, after Hasina's government was overthrown by a mass uprising in 2024 and she went into exile in India, relations between New Delhi and Dhaka deteriorated significantly, marked by accusations, misinformation, allegations of religious minority repression in Bangladesh, trade restrictions, and India's refusal to extradite Hasina, even though Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal had sentenced her to death for her role in 2024.
Under the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, anti-Indian narratives gained increased visibility among opposition groups and segments of the broader public in Bangladesh. India’s continued support for the Awami League in the 2014, 2018, and 2024 elections certainly contributed to growing public dissatisfaction and perceptions of external political influence. These developments have complicated bilateral relations and reinforced domestic debates over sovereignty and foreign policy autonomy.
Nonetheless, India began to adapt to a new political reality in post-Hasina Bangladesh. Earlier this year, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar attended the funeral of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. Following the BNP’s victory, Narendra Modi congratulated Tarique Rahman, reaffirming India’s support for a democratic and inclusive Bangladesh.
It is widely assumed that the BNP will take a pragmatic approach to its relationship with India, grounded in mutual benefit and strategic necessity. Given India's status as Bangladesh's closest neighbour, the new government has significant incentives to restore a productive working relationship, even if it does not replicate the level of political intimacy seen during the Hasina administration.
Dhaka must adopt a cautious middle position, balancing proximity with autonomy while emphasizing mutual respect, reciprocal sovereignty, and noninterference. Another key challenge will be maintaining this balance amid persistent anti-India and anti-Bangladesh sentiments among segments of the public in both countries, often amplified by rumours, misinformation, and political propaganda. In this context, the BNP government may face domestic pressure to adopt a firmer rhetorical stance toward New Delhi, even as strategic interdependence and regional stability necessitate continued engagement and cooperation.
A recalibrated engagement with China?
Relations with China are likely to pose the most consequential strategic challenge for the incoming government.
Beijing positioned itself independently of Bangladesh’s domestic political forces by maintaining close ties with Hasina and fostering relationships across the political spectrum. During Hasina's tenure, China increased its economic footprint with the Belt and Road Initiative, deepening infrastructure investments and military ties with Bangladesh. The interim government that succeeded Hasina also received approximately $2.1 billion in Chinese investments, loans, and grants, as well as high-level visits to Beijing.
The BNP is likely to continue economic engagement with China, preserving investment and connectivity projects where they align with Bangladesh’s national interests. While historically perceived as leaning toward Beijing, the party's record reflects a pragmatic strategy of foreign policy diversification.
Under Ziaur Rahman (1977–1981), Bangladesh strengthened diplomatic and military ties with China as part of a strategy to broaden external partnerships beyond India and the Soviet bloc. This approach continued during the time under Khaleda Zia (1991–1996; 2001–2006), when defense cooperation and economic engagement with China expanded through agreements on infrastructure, trade, and technical assistance.
The upcoming government will also need to navigate growing resistance from India and the United States to China's growing regional influence. Questions about the sustainability of large-scale infrastructure financing and claims of Chinese debt dependency will further shape Dhaka’s approach. Consequently, BNP is likely to strike a balance between strategic prudence and economic collaboration in its engagement with Beijing.
Pakistan’s bid for re-engagement
During the Awami League government, Pakistan remained relatively distant from Bangladesh, largely due to Dhaka’s long-standing strategic alignment with New Delhi. This dynamic began to shift under the interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus, when Bangladesh and Pakistan resumed direct flights, exchanged high-level civilian and military visits, and eased visa procedures as part of confidence-building measures.
Islamabad also explored renewed defense cooperation, including discussions on the potential sale of fighter aircraft. Beyond official diplomacy, Pakistan has pursued soft-power outreach by engaging Bangladeshi cultural figures and media platforms, such as the participation of Bangladeshi artists in Pakistan Idol. Amid persistent anti-India sentiment among segments of Bangladeshi youth, Pakistan appears to be leveraging cultural diplomacy and public engagement to shape favourable opinion and encourage closer bilateral ties with the new government in Dhaka.
Looking ahead: Bangladesh’s foreign policy choices
For Dhaka, diversifying external partnerships represents an ideal strategy for reducing overdependence on any single actor. This approach involves balancing relations with both Islamabad and New Delhi, alongside potential outreach to partners in the Middle East.
At the same time, Bangladesh will need to maintain a transactional approach toward both India and Pakistan, ensuring that engagement remains transparent, structured, and guided by clearly defined national interests rather than ideological alignment.
The BNP’s “Bangladesh First” policy must signal an effort to prioritize national autonomy and core interests while diversifying external partnerships and addressing regional challenges such as the Rohingya crisis. At the same time, the new government should avoid entanglement in great-power rivalries involving the United States, India, and China. The new administration’s diplomacy, therefore, should be grounded in pragmatism and strategic calculation rather than rhetorical positioning.
Saume Saptaparna Nath is a Graduate Student, Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), Japan.
