A few weeks back, I asked my shopkeeper: “Last week I bought onions at Tk140 per kilogram, and today they are Tk65. Why?”
The answer was simple: “Sir, Indian onions have arrived, so prices have fallen.” He also added that our recent experience of importing onions from Pakistan and Turkey during emergencies was not encouraging. India, he said, remains our last resort.
At a special discussion on geopolitics at the Kellogg School of Management many years ago our professor said: “You do not get to choose your parents or your immediate neighbors.”
When I joined Citibank NA, the late Nanu Pamnani, who hired me, remarked: “You may be reluctant to enter India, but in this age of globalization, you cannot ignore or overlook Indians anywhere.”
Even the finance adviser of the interim government acknowledged before the elections that we need India -- both economically and in the health sector.
There is no doubt that the fall of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 came as a major shock not only to Indian intelligence agencies but to India as a whole. During her 15 years in power, India was her most reliable ally. New Delhi’s support helped the Awami League navigate three controversial elections.
However, this close relationship with an increasingly unpopular leaderalso fueled anti-India sentiment within Bangladesh. Since the mass uprising, both countries have struggled to repair ties -- engaging in aggressive rhetoric, imposing trade restrictions, and becoming involved in border confrontations.
Yet, the elections offer an opportunity to reset the relationship. To make the most of it, New Delhi should be prepared to demonstrate a cooperative mindset and expand engagement with a wide range of political stakeholders, including those with whom it has disagreements. On the other hand, Bangladesh’s major political parties should refrain, as much as possible, from anti-India rhetoric.
Recently, the International Crisis Group published a report emphasizing what needs to be done to restore balance in our bilateral relations. The report notes that the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government has led to a deterioration in Dhaka-New Delhi ties. Border disputes, retaliatory trade restrictions, and provocative statements have all intensified. Nevertheless, the group also remained hopeful that there is an opportunity to rebuild the relationship.
India’s support during Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan in 1971 was crucial, and the two countries share deep historical and cultural ties. Yet border disputes, security concerns, perceptions of India’s hegemonic behaviour, and communal tensions have repeatedly strained relations. While politicians play a prominent role in shaping this narrative, many ordinary Bangladeshis view India with suspicion.
Sheikh Hasina’s victory in the December 2008 election created what New Delhi has often described as a “golden chapter” in bilateral relations. The two sides resolved land and maritime boundary disputes, reduced tariffs, signed multiple transshipment agreements, and strengthened economic integration through infrastructure development. A large number of Bangladeshis also began traveling to India for tourism and medical treatment.
However, a widespread perception persists in Bangladesh that, in exchange for keeping Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian government in power, India extracted unilateral advantages in political, security, and business domains. India’s decision to provide her shelter in August 2024 -- despite Bangladesh’s strong demand to bring her to justice -- has further deepened this bitterness.
Both sides claim they have extended hands of reconciliation, only to be met with indifference from the other. Instead, accusations of provocation have dominated the discourse. In some cases, both countries have adopted confrontational postures along the border, which appear to be linked to retaliatory trade measures. Such tensions have benefited neither side; rather, they have entrenched negative perceptions.
Most political leaders in both countries appear to agree that improved relations would be mutually beneficial. Still, there remains a risk that both sides could become trapped in a cycle of resentment and mistrust. While the likelihood of state-to-state conflict is low, prolonged tensions could create widespread instability -- manifesting in violent protests, communal attacks, border killings, and insurgent activities. The potential rise of religious extremist forces in the future could further complicate matters.
For a long time, India believed that maintaining constructive relations with Bangladesh depended primarily on the Awami League remaining in power. This approach has negatively affected both Bangladesh’s domestic politics and the long-term sustainability of bilateral relations.
With the BNP now in power, both sides should seize this opportunity to bring the relationship onto a more stable footing. New Delhi should go a step further by strengthening ties with all political actors in Bangladesh -- not just the BNP but opposition parties as well. At the same time, people-to-people and economic linkages must be expanded so that bilateral relations are insulated from political transitions.
India will understandably prioritize its economic and security interests. However, it must also ensure that its initiatives are mutually beneficial and sensitive to Bangladesh’s internal concerns. By proactively lifting the visa restrictions imposed in August 2024, New Delhi could signal renewed diplomatic engagement and begin formulating new policy proposals to present to the BNP.
On the other hand, the BNP should respond positively to India’s constructive initiatives, pursue a balanced foreign policy, and take more effective measures against cross-border smuggling and illegal migration. In the years ahead, steering bilateral relations in the right direction and transforming them into a source of stability will require Bangladesh to take India’s security concerns into account. At the same time, the benefits of working closely with an emerging power like India -- particularly in agriculture, science, and healthcare -- must also be taken into cognizance.
Mamun Rashid is an economic analyst.
