After years of rising tensions, covert and limited strikes, and proxy battles, a direct and massive confrontation broke out last week between Iran and Israel. The long-standing animosity and threats culminated in an Israeli surprise offensive of unprecedented scale -- signaling that the shadow war has now become an open and expansive military conflict.
From Israel’s perspective, this war is not just a reaction to threats; it is a pre-emptive act of survival. Officials in Tel Aviv had increasingly warned that Iran was approaching a nuclear threshold, and that time was running out to stop the Islamic Republic from acquiring the capability to develop and potentially use nuclear weapons.
For months, military and intelligence agencies in Israel had reportedly drawn up extensive plans for a decisive strike -- a scenario that would cripple Iran’s nuclear ambitions in one swift blow. That moment came last week, as waves of Israeli fighter jets, drones, and cyber units launched a surprise offensive, striking deep inside Iranian territory.
The war as it stands
The operation, reportedly called “Operation Rising Lion,” was massive in scope and shockingly effective. Within a span of less than 48 hours, Israeli forces conducted coordinated strikes on over 100 critical targets, including uranium enrichment facilities in Natanz and Fordow, missile production plants, and weapons storage sites.
Even more strikingly, Israel successfully assassinated multiple senior Iranian nuclear scientists and top military commanders, including figures seen as central to Iran’s nuclear program and regional military strategy. Among the dead were General Hossein Salami, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), General Mohammad Bagheri, Iran’s military chief of staff, and General Gholam Ali Rashid, a key strategic planner.
The sudden loss of such high-ranking officials has left Iran’s military leadership severely fragmented and scrambling to regain control. In addition to the airstrikes, the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, reportedly carried out precision ground operations within Iran to sabotage radar systems, disable air defense units, and guide airstrikes to their intended targets. Iran, which had long anticipated Israeli threats, was caught off guard.
Iran’s response was swift but lacked the coordination and impact of the Israeli assault. Within hours of the attacks, the Iranian military launched a barrage of over 100 drones and several hundred ballistic missiles toward Israeli territory. The Islamic Republic declared that it would retaliate and vowed to exact revenge for what it called an act of war and a violation of its sovereignty.
Who's winning?
The key question now is: Who holds the upper hand -- geopolitically, strategically, and militarily?
The answer, at least for now, appears to favour Israel. Iran is entering this war from a position of profound weakness. Its strategic alliances and regional influence have been severely diminished. The al-Assad regime in Syria, once a reliable partner and host to Iranian forces, collapsed. Hezbollah in Lebanon, long considered Iran’s most powerful proxy, has been depleted by war and Israeli airstrikes. Hamas has suffered significant setbacks in Gaza, both militarily and politically. The Iranian regime, therefore, finds its regional influence waning at a critical moment.
Having systematically weakened Iran’s regional proxies, there is no immediate fear of multi-front retaliation. Strategically, the collapse of the Syrian regime has eliminated one of the key platforms through which Iran projected force toward Israel. Hezbollah’s diminished arsenal and Hamas’s recent defeats mean fewer distractions at Israel’s northern and southern borders. Most importantly, Israel enjoys steadfast support from the United States, which has provided air defense coordination.
From a military standpoint, the war is not expected to involve ground invasions. Instead, it is being waged almost entirely through air and missile power. And in this arena, Israel enjoys a clear and overwhelming advantage. Its air force, among the most technologically advanced in the world, includes stealth fighters, satellite-guided munitions, and electronic warfare capabilities that Iran cannot match. Israeli pilots are highly trained, and the country’s air defense systems have proven themselves again and again under intense pressure. While Iran can inflict damage, it lacks the ability to deliver sustained, precision strikes at the scale Israel can.
Cyber capabilities also play a role, and again, Israel leads. As the dust settles from the first week of this conflict, one thing is clear: Iran’s government finds itself in a deeply vulnerable and constrained position. With senior leadership eliminated, nuclear progress rolled back, air defense systems compromised, and limited retaliatory capacity, Tehran faces an uphill battle. Its options are few, and none of them are without risk.
Israel, while facing inevitable costs and the unpredictability of extended war, has so far executed a well-coordinated, high-impact campaign. It controls the pace and scope of escalation and holds most of the tactical advantages. Whether it chooses to press forward with further strikes or negotiate from a position of strength will depend on evolving strategic calculations. But for now, it holds the military and geopolitical upper hand.
Dr Majid Rafizadeh is a political scientist specializing in US foreign policy and the Middle East, and is a Harvard-educated scholar. A version of this article previously appeared in Al-Arabiya and has been reprinted under special arrangement.
