In defining the boundaries of a constituency there are two alternatives: Make the number of voters in the constituencies equal, or make the population in the constituencies equal. Usually, the available data may make it difficult to try to keep the number of allowed voters equal; in most countries such data is not available. However, in Bangladesh, there is good data on the number of voters available that are reasonably up to date. Population data is available at only ten-year intervals of census.
In Bangladesh, the latest is for 2022 and this was difficult to collect due to the Covid-19 epidemic. Furthermore, the next election will probably be in 2026 or even 2027. The voter lists are kept quite up to date. Whichever data is used it must be available at the village or ward level in order to count theconstituency numbers.
What is the current situation? If one uses the current voter list data for the current 300 constituencies, we find that the differences are very large: The average number of voters per constituency is almost 400,000; the median is slightly less at 390,000. The constituency with the least voters is Jhalokathi-1 with 212,000 voters; the largest is Narayanganj-4 with 696,000 voters. The lowest 10% range from the smallest to 293,000. The highest 10% range from the largest down to494,000. There are, therefore, major differences in the number of voters per constituency. Table-1 sets out the distribution by deciles. This shows clearly the large differences between the constituency sizes. This is no surprise. The last two Election Commission simply ducked this issue as the politicians are not happy with changing their constituency boundaries. In a way no one cared as the election was not taken seriously.
The percentage of the population that is 18 years old and higher is 65% based on the age distribution from the 2022 Census. [This is from the adjusted data] from this ratio and the number of voters one estimates the population as 185 million assuming the number of voters is correct. Hence, one concludes that either the Census [176 million assuming the growth rate is 1.2% per year] is correct and then there should be 114 million voters, whereas the voter lists total 120 million persons by the end 2023. Or the Census is wrong and the actual population is 185 billion.
We believe that the voter lists are more accurate counts of the 18+ population than the Census. The voter lists are reviewed more frequently. However, if you delineate the constituencies to have equal voters, you are close to the same requirements as if you used the 18+ population. Another difficulty is that the enumeration corrections are not available at the lowest levels.
The political power of an individual can be defined as one over the number of voters in his constituency. If you are voting as a member of a group, the power of each member is measured by that ratio. By having the same number of voters in each constituency, each person has the same political [voting] power. It is a fundamental principle of democracy that in voting everyone should have the same influence on the selection of a candidate. That is clearly violated if you count population as the basis for defining constituencies, as one-third of the population is underage and, in some sense, are represented by their parents. Every person has equal power, but the representatives of the children have more.
One of the key jobs of the Election Commission is to define the boundaries of the constituencies so that the number of voters or people is the same in each. We suggest the following rules:
1. Each constituency should have the same number of voters +/- 10%
2. The constituencies should include areas from two districts. This rule is difficult to apply to large urban areas. Judicious use of the boundary of the district will enable many constituencies to be two districts, but some areas will be in the centre of the district
3. The delineation should be done with the existing voter lists as the constituencies should be defined as soon as possible so potential candidates for Parliament can begin their work
4. Representatives of political parties and former MPs should be forbidden access to the team doing the delineation
5. The work should be done in secrecy and the team doing the work investigated before they start and after they finish
6. The constituency should be compact and as much as possible avoid odd shapes
Our reasoning is as follows: There is probably little difference in using population or voters, but we prefer voters as having better and more recent data. Furthermore, it is a betterdemocratic structure to have voters, there is no good reason for giving power to children. By splitting constituencies over two districts, one breaks up the old delineation and reduces the advantages held by old politicians.
Assuming there is little participation by the AL, to make room for new parties, it is necessary to take away the advantages old, established parties have from their old members competing in the currently delineated constituencies. It may be impossible to meet the +/-10% rule without spreading many constituencies over more than one district anyway. By requiring two districts you have a fairer breakdown. The objective should be to get equality of numbers and to break up the old constituencies.
Delineation of the constituencies is a major job for the new Election Commission. For years the commission has avoided doing this job, resulting in the unbalanced size of the constituencies. To establish a better democracy, the adjustment in constituency size is needed.
Forrest Cookson is the Research Advisor to the Centre for Research and Development. In Bangladesh, he led the central bank component of the Financial Sector Reforms; was the Team Leader of the study of Northwest Area Development of Bangladesh; and served as the Statistical Advisor of the Legal and Judicial Capacity Building Project. Emdadul Haque is the CEO of the Centre for Research and Development and has previously worked with the Election Commission.
