Lichtman is a distinguished professor at The American University in Washington DC. He developed a method of forecasting the outcome of US presidential elections. This method has been very successful. Like many successful theories, at its core is a simple but persuasive idea.
This idea is that predicting a presidential election depends on the quality of the governance of the sitting president at the time of the election. Lichtman discards all the polling, discussion groups, and experts who believe that they can figure out what is happening.
Instead of all this effort, his method calls for answering 13 “keys.”
The questions are answered TRUE or FALSE and apply mostly to the conditions during the four years prior to the election being predicted.
Thus, as we apply it below, it deals with the accomplishments of the four years of the Biden administration 2021- 2024.
The rule is that if five or fewer of the keys are false, then the party in power will remain in power.
Lichtman’s method was at first interpreted as predicting the winner of the popular vote.
As I understand it, Lichtmann claims the 13 Keys are now taken to predict the outcome of the Electoral College, and therefore the winner of the election.
We now apply the 13 Keys to the 2024 election between Trump and Harris.
Key 1: Incumbent party mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
This is False. The Democratic party had fewer seats in the House in 2022 than in 2018.
Key 2: Nomination contest?
There is no serious contest for the nomination.
This is True. Although the candidate shifted from Biden to Harris, there was no challenge to this shift.
Key 3: Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
This is obviously False. Biden, not Harris, is the sitting president.
Key 4: Third party
There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
There is no significant third party running. RFK Jr was participating in the election as an independent, but he has withdrawn and is supporting Trump so this is True.
Key 5: Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
There is no recession during 2024, on the contrary the US economy expanded very strongly. This is True.
Key 6: Long-term economy
Real annual per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms.
This is True as growth has been faster during the Biden regime than during the previous eight years.
Key 7: Policy change
The incumbent administration affected major changes in national policy.
There were massive changes in public policy during the Biden regime. Three major acts have resulted in a rapid growth of manufacturing and actions to reduce greenhouse emissions. This isTrue.
Key 8: Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
This is True. There was no real social unrest during the last five years. The Trump Republican party has made considerable noise and protests, but no real sustained unrest. The January 6 uprising lasted only a few hours.
Key 9: Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
There is no major scandal in the Biden administration. The attempt by the Republicans to make the misbehaviour of Hunter Biden a major scandal was not successful. This is True.
Key 10: Foreign or military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no failure in foreign or military affairs.
This is False. The withdrawal from Afghanistan is perceived by Americans as a failure. The attempt to moderate the war in the Middle East is also perceived as a failure, regardless of which side one favours.
Key 11: Foreign or military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
The Biden administration has no successful military or foreign outcome. This is False.
Key 12: Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Harris is certainly not a charismatic figure. This is False.
Key 13: Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
This is a difficult decision. Trump is no hero, but he is charismatic. There are a large number of Americans who think that he is a strong leader and they are prepared to follow him. We judge this as False.
The conclusion is: True: 7 and False: 6.
The rule is that if there are more than five False then the incumbent party loses.
Therefore, according to Lichtman’s methodology and my answers to the 13 Keys, Trump should be the winner of the election.
There is one caveat. Key 10 depends on what one thinks about the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Biden administration's performance in the Middle East.
If you judge Key 10 to be True -- that the Biden administration has suffered no foreign policy failure -- then the score is True: 8 and False: 5 -- which would suggest that Harris will win.
Forrest Cookson is the Research Adviser to The Research and Development Center. In Bangladesh, he led the central bank component of the Financial Sector Reforms; he was the Team Leader of the study of the Northwest Area Development of Bangladesh; and served as the Statistical Adviser of the Legal and Judicial Capacity Building Project.
