In democracies where strong opposition is absent or where state mechanisms suppress dissent, “unseen triggers” -- emergent forces from within society -- can become significant threats.
Bangladesh has seen several such triggers over the past decade, including Hefazat-e-Islam, student protests against VAT on private universities, the Nirapod Sharak movement, and the 2018 quota reform agitation. These movements have acted as critical warnings to the ruling party.
The Awami League-led Grand Alliance’s overwhelming victory in the 2008 elections marked the beginning of increasing authoritarianism. With over two-thirds of the parliamentary seats, the government centralized power, suppressing opposition and dissent while tightening control over its coalition partners.
Over the past 15 years, the Awami League employed repressive tactics -- extrajudicial killings, abductions, assaults, false accusations, and judicial manipulation -- to stifle political opposition. This systematic repression dismantled political movements, while non-political protests gained significant public support and challenged the regime.
The recent uprising on August 5, leading to Sheikh Hasina's departure, represents a crucial turning point. The regime’s long-standing authoritarian practices triggered a backlash from unconventional platforms, highlighting the explosive power of discontent when it emerges outside traditional opposition channels. Consider a football match where Bangladesh is set to play Bhutan. If the team prepares for Bhutan but faces Brazil instead, they would be unprepared. Similarly, when opposition parties are allowed to operate, public demands and protests can be channelled through these platforms, fostering dialogue and negotiation.
The situation in Bangladesh reflects a concerning trend where democratic processes are increasingly manipulated to consolidate power.
What were once viewed as signs of democratic progress in 2001 and 2008 -- such as the peaceful transfer of power and acceptance of electoral defeat -- have now given way to clear authoritarian practices.
Initially, under Sheikh Hasina's leadership, the Awami League adhered to democratic norms, albeit reluctantly, when faced with electoral loss.
However, once re-elected, Hasina’s focus shifted from governance to maintaining control by any means necessary. This shift illustrates a troubling trend: While the outward appearance of democracy is maintained, its core elements -- fair elections, judicial independence, and the protection of dissent -- are systematically undermined.
Political repression escalated significantly since 2008. The aggressive crackdown on the BNP and its supporters, the removal of the caretaker governance system, and the erosion of judicial independence all point to a deliberate effort to suppress opposition.
By sidelining the judiciary and manipulating elections to ensure they are either uncontested or heavily rigged, the Awami League has dismantled the essential checks and balances of a functioning democracy.
The Awami League’s overconfidence led them to believe that ignoring dissent would not have severe consequences
The elections of 2014, 2018, and 2024, which have been marred by allegations of fraud and violence, further underscored this authoritarian trend.
During the Awami League’s tenure, these unseen triggers lacked centralized leadership and their potential was underestimated. The 2024 quota reform movement, for instance, grew in strength despite the government’s attempts to suppress it with force, evolving into a broader anti-discrimination campaign. The lack of clear leadership for negotiation left the government struggling to manage the situation.
Institutions like Bertelsmann Stiftung and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) have consistently highlighted the decline of democracy in Bangladesh since 2014. The erosion reached a level where Bangladesh was labeled a “flawed democracy” and even autocratic by some observers.
The Awami League’s overconfidence led them to believe that ignoring dissent would not have severe consequences. They suppressed reactions, maintained an international anti-terrorism stance, and violated democratic norms and human rights. Despite some initial global support, the government’s repressive measures -- starting with the 2014 one-sided elections -- continued unabated.
Their development narrative was used to marginalize opponents but in turn transforming minor protests into significant mass movements. This evolution reflected deep-rooted public discontent and resilience, ultimately contributing to the regime's downfall.
In essence, what unfolded in Bangladesh is a stark reminder of how democratic institutions can be hollowed out from within. The veneer of democracy is maintained through elections and political processes, but the underlying principles -- fairness, freedom, and accountability -- are systematically dismantled.
For true democratic renewal, Bangladesh needs more than just a change in leadership; it requires a return to the foundational principles of democratic governance, where power is checked, dissent is protected, and elections are genuinely free and fair.
Shariar Ibrahim is a sub-editor at Dhaka Tribune.
