The demographic dividend refers to the accelerated economic growth that can occur in a country when its working-age population is larger than the dependent population (children and elderly). This situation arises when the proportion of the working-age population (generally between 15 and 64 years old) is high, leading to a potential boost in economic productivity due to increased labour supply.
To know about the demographic dividend of Bangladesh, we must know the population trends and dynamics. Since 1974, the country's first census, the population has more than doubled and stands at 165,158,616 in 2022. Apart from the evident increase in population, the population growth rate has actually been gradually decreasing over the years. The annual growth rates of Bangladesh were 2.84% and 1.22% during the respective years of 1981 and 2022. According to Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS-2022), The total fertility rate (TFR) of Bangladesh was 6.3 births per woman in 1975, and now it is 2.3 in 2022.
It is clear that women's education is a catalyst dominating all other effects of fertility and sexual behaviour change. Modern contraceptive use and socio-economic development are also the main factors among the other factors of the fertility decline.
Bangladesh is going through a demographic transition that is a gradual shift from high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality. As a result, the demographic profile and age-sex structure of Bangladesh have changed. According to the 2022 census, The proportion of the working-age population (age 15-64) is 65.63% which was 60.62% in the 2011 census.
Furthermore, if we set our eyes on the dependency ratio, which is the ratio of the working-age population (15-64) to the dependent population (0-14 years and 65 years and above), it has declined significantly from 73.00 in 2011 to 52.64 in 2022. Now the working-age population overlaps the dependent population and so it is the peak time to harness this demographic dividend.
Making full use of the opportunity
The demographic dividend provides a window of opportunities for Bangladesh. Its huge number of working page population can drive productivity and economic growth. As per the result of the first quarter of the Labour Force Survey (LFS)-2023, there are now 73.69 million people working in Bangladesh, of which 48.25 million are men and 25.44 million women.
Good education and necessary skill sets are the pre-conditions of reaping the full benefit of the demographic dividend. Our existing educational system still depends on theoretical knowledge rather than the implication of knowledge -- it doesn’t focus on developing creative thinking and effective decision-making skills among students.
There is a huge gap between academia and industry relationships so university students don't know what he/she is going to do after graduating from university. Many university graduates don't have enough sophistication in their language skills and other communication and soft skills that are needed. Consequently, a paradoxical situation is occurring in the job market of Bangladesh. On one hand, many educated people are unemployed; on the other hand, recruiters don't get competent people.
Moreover, without having a relation between academia and industry, we encounter brain drain and brain waste. After graduating from a medical college or engineering university, people join civil services -- this is brain-wasting. If skilled people do not get a job or do not get an appropriate environment for work, they are compelled to migrate to developed countries.
Technical and skill-based education systems must be ensured. We also have to invest in the health care system. Our policymakers should be committed to ensuring the vital resources of living. The private sector complains that they don’t get skilled graduates who are technically sound. Students must be dedicated to acquiring technical skill sets and critical reasoning power.
We have to keep in mind that the demographic dividend is a time-sensitive phenomenon. Half of Bangladesh's demographic dividend period has passed. Some researchers suggested that it may end by 2040. When this once-in-a-lifetime window closes, we may never regain it, and the demographic dividend may turn into a demographic burden. So, we must utilize the full benefit of the demographic dividend to ensure the vision of Smart Bangladesh and march towards prosperity.
Mahebub Hasan, a student of Department of Population Sciences at University of Dhaka.
