The dark valley?

On November 8, the American voters will choose all of the members of the House of Representatives, and 33 of the 100 Senators. This midterm (half way between two Presidential Elections) election will establish control over the legislative branch of the United States government.

In addition to these elections there are many other elections for state governors, members of state legislators, judges on state Supreme Courts, and others.

The view by most observers and opinion poll averages is that the House of Representatives will be won by the Republicans. For the Senate there is a consensus that it is close; but my view is that the Republicans will gain control of the Senate by 1-2 seats.

A highly probable forecast

Many observers in the United States see this election as the opening to the collapse of democracy in the United States. This would emerge over the next six years through the following 10 possible events:

1. Republicans winning control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in 2022.
2. A two-year period of economic turmoil and a high probability of a worldwide financial crisis, more serious than 2007-2008. Continuing inflation, higher interest rates turning into recession, and a substantial level of unemployment.
3. During the same two years, widespread Congressional investigations that conclude with the impeachment of Biden, Congressional investigations that support the claim that the 2020 election was seriously flawed and that it is likely that Trump won.
4. The United States Congress is very likely to no longer be prepared to fund the Ukrainian war and the Russians gradually prevail. The American Congress blames the fiscal position and Biden's son's corruption as the excuses for withdrawing support.
5. NATO begins to weaken its ties, Germany declares that it has nuclear weapons and raises its military budget.
6. In the election of 2024, Trump wins the presidency.
7. In the period of 2024-2028 Trump fights for and wins to repeal the amendment to the Constitution enabling Trump to run for further terms.
8. Serious succession movements arise in California and the Northeastern United States. Militia-type organizations grow rapidly, each accusing the other of violence.
9. The world economy falls into a deep recession, international trade breaks down. China takes control of Taiwan without response from the United States. The IMF and World Bank close down.
10. A military takeover begins in the United States during Trump's third term.

Deep conflicts in the United States

This outcome of the election is no surprise. What is disturbing is the underlying attitudes and interests. 

The United States faces serious problems and there is no indication that the leadership of either political party has the ability to manage these. Compromise and cooperation are replaced by “You are a fool and I know best.”

1. Inflation: The reduction of inflation is best achieved by higher interest rates and a smaller government deficit. It is unlikely that the Republicans would take any effective fiscal actions. In particular, their main objective is to lower taxes -- the exact wrong action to limit inflation. No doubt the Republicans would be pleased to reduce expenditures; but that would be unacceptable to the Democrats. Any serious attempt to limit inflation through fiscal means will fail. This places the responsibility on the Federal Reserve and the only instrument they have is to raise the interest rates. The end of inflation will take two more years and most likely cause a recession. The Democrats are blamed.
2. Racism: Despite all of the noise, the Republican party too often plays the race card. The reality is that across education levels, financial assets, incomes, access to health care, incarceration, and job security, there is discrimination against Black Americans. The extent of racism is a deep secret in the souls of many white Americans and the people perceive the Republican party represents their interests.
3. Crime is a rising issue in many parts of the United States and the efforts to control it will increase the racial conflicts. The Republicans have the support of the people.
4. Immigration: There are a large number of persons who are appearing at the border and appealing for admission to the United States. No one has any solution to this but again the Republican tough position has the support of the people.

Immediate actions of political conflict

Apart from these major issues facing the US government, there are other very highly contentious issues:

1. Investigations of Biden's son, accusing him of being involved in the Ukraine war. Investigation of the Trump attempt to overthrow the United States government will be stopped and efforts are likely to commence to impeach Biden.
2. Attempts will be mounted to claim that the 2020 election was won by Trump. Trump will push hard for explicit actions that will support such actions.
3. The limit for debt that the US government can take on has been reached. If this limit is not lifted by Congress, the US government will not be able to pay its debt, bonds held by people all over the world may default, and the world financial system will be under tremendous pressure. The Republican Party has announced it will not lift the debt ceiling without concessions from the Democrats to reduce access to government pension programs and medical care. Both sides will take very rigid positions. In the present climate of irresponsibility, it is hard to predict what will happen.
4. The Republicans have threatened to withdraw support for the Ukraine government, threatening collapse of the international systems that attempt to maintain order.
5. The world energy economy, already in chaos, will become more volatile.

Republican ascendancy

All of this points to the ascendancy of a political party, the Republicans, that has shown no clear signal of responsibility for any of the issues mentioned here. 

The impact of the erratic behavior of the American government over the next two years will have significant impacts on Bangladesh. 

American trade policy will remain uncertain and not supportive of Bangladesh; the world energy economy will become more unstable; support for the United Nations will decline; and most serious support by the United States for global warming actions will decline. 

The calming presence of the United States on the relations between China and India will be removed, probably leading to military conflict. The United States will observe, leaving Indians to save themselves.

Finally, it is widely expected that Trump will announce that he intends to run for president in 2024 after the 2022 election. This will raise the level of violence. American democracy is headed for a very difficult period. Patriotism, integrity, honour, and compassion will be drowned out.

The United States has no current political leader of stature, integrity, and energy to face future conflicts, and to actually lead the country by inspiration and clarity of view. 

There are four areas of great importance to Bangladesh:

1. The organization of world trade. Weakening of globalization undermines the manufacturing sector of Bangladesh that was built because of the opportunities globalization offered.
2. The stabilization of the world energy economy, to achieve reduced price volatility and well-functioning sources of demand and supply of fuel.
3. Continuing serious efforts to reduce GHG emissions. Bangladesh is a victim of the behaviour of advanced economies' emissions. If the Republican party has control of Congress and continues to deny that climate change is a problem, it will effectively weaken the world wide efforts to limit rising temperatures and ultimately put much of Bangladesh underwater. 
4. The world is already at war and there are potentially more points of conflict particularly between China and the United States. A conflict involving China, India, and the United States could create very difficult choices for Bangladesh.

Forrest Cookson is an economist who has served as the first president of AmCham and has been a consultant for the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.