The Ukraine crisis has created a new reality, both from an economic and security perspective, for the world. Though Ukraine started fighting against Russia by relying on the rhetoric of the US and the West, it is now alone in this fight.
On the other hand, Russia invaded Ukraine in lieu of security concerns, and is now on the verge of being isolated from the rest of the world. The geopolitical interests and strategic concerns made the global powers inactive in this crisis which has created a new lesson for the world. This crisis has taught us that, “no matter how complex the crisis with your neighbour, you should resolve it through mutual discussions.”
And, this is why Russia and Ukraine are continuing peace talk even amid the war.
Bangladesh and Myanmar, the two close Asian neighbours, shares a border of only 271km. Like every neighbour in the world, they have some disputes, such as the Rohingya crisis, which can be resolved through peaceful negotiations. On top of that, they can unlock the huge untapped potential that exists in their relations by enhancing connectivity and cooperation.
Ukraine’s aspiration to become a member of NATO was the main reason that instigated Russia for this military invasion. Recently, Ukraine’s president has declared that “Ukraine will not join NATO” and it is unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future. Though the US and the West encouraged Ukraine, they critically rejected Ukraine’s demand for a no-fly zone over its airspace.
On the other hand, protests erupted in Russia against Vladimir Putin denouncing his decision to invade Ukraine. Externally, Russia is also facing pressure after the sanctions slapped by the US and the West. Such foreign sanction has confiscated hundreds of billions worth of Russia's foreign reserves.
Considering the economic loss and energy dependency, the EU has been divided into two groups on whether to split relations with Russia. The UN resolution to end the Ukraine war has not been unanimously adopted and has no direct or indirect effect on the war.
So, how will the Ukraine war end? Ongoing guerrilla fight between Ukraine and Russia for indefinite period, full occupation of Ukraine by Russia, or starting World War III? Only time can say that.
So, what is the future of Bangladesh and Myanmar as neighbours? They have historical and cultural ties that date back hundreds of years. Myanmar's Rakhine State, former Arakan, has century-long friendly relations with Bangladesh. Now, the Rohingya crisis is the only unresolved issue between them.
Brutality against ethnic minorities, such as the one in Rakhine, is one of the oldest tactics used by Tatmadaw to seize power and gain support of the extremist Burmese. Moreover, the Rohingya, who have been living in Rakhine for almost a thousand years, have falsely been propagated as Bangladeshi infiltrators.
After the audacious military coup on February 1, 2021, the attitude of the Myanmar public towards the Rohingya started to change. In various interviews, General Twan Mrat Naing, leader of the Arakan Army, an armed group of Rakhine State, also called for the restoration of civil rights to the Rohingya. Now, it is possible to resolve the protracted Rohingya crisis through repatriation with the green signal from the Myanmar army. That is why there is no alternative to continuing bilateral talks.
Apart from Rohingya issues, these two countries may also focus on other areas, such as trade and investment, import-export, communication sector, military and security cooperation, etc in their bilateral discussion. Myanmar may be the gateway for Bangladesh to getting direct access to China and the countries of the South East. Myanmar and Bangladesh can also play a leading role in enhancing regional cooperation between ASEAN and SAARC countries.
As they both have common membership in Trans-Asian Railway, Asian Highway Network, and Bangladesh-Myanmar-China trilateral road connectivity projects, they can play a crucial role in accelerating the implementation of these projects. The two countries could take collaborative actions to curb drug smuggling, human trafficking, and separatist movement on the border.
Bilateral trade between the two countries is currently $112 million, which could be significantly increased. Bangladesh can export pharmaceuticals, iron or steel products, electronic equipment, paper, textiles, leather, etc to Myanmar. On the other hand, vegetables, fish, machinery, coffee, tea, cereals, nuts, stones, cement, wood etc can be imported from Myanmar to Bangladesh.
In addition, joint ventures for exploration and extraction of oil, gas and other mineral resources in Myanmar; establishment of special economic zones on both sides; provision of priority privileges for investment, and cooperation between Bangladesh and Myanmar chambers of commerce and industry, universities, and agriculture ministries can be arranged as a part of further cooperation.
The Rohingya crisis has posed a serious security threat. And, this crisis has an indirect impact on Malaysia, Indonesia, and India as well. Normally, countries try to secure their own interests. For example: ASEAN countries, South Korea, Japan, India, and even many Western countries are doing business with Myanmar even after the serious allegation of genocide against the Rohingya.
Now, both Bangladesh and Myanmar should move forward to establish a long-term relationship without resorting to any indirect impetus. In this case, these countries can continue their efforts to resolve the issues through building trust and arranging diplomatic discussions between their military forces.
As the Myanmar army is mainly responsible for the Rohingya crisis, it is next to impossible to ensure safe and dignified repatriation without their direct assistance and interference. Bangladesh and Myanmar can play a strong role in establishing peace in the region through bilateral talks, not only by resolving the Rohingya crisis but also highlighting other bilateral affairs. And, economic and military diplomacy will make that path easier.
Tonmoy Chowdhury is an analyst specializing in refugee and security affairs. [email protected].
