The Nord Stream pipelines blasted into the Baltic Sea on September 27 this year, what is likely the most significant single release of climate-damaging methane into the atmosphere. Leaks from the pipelines have finally stopped after four separate ruptures were discovered. Nord Stream AG, the company that manages the pipeline, said in a statement on Twitter, "a stable pressure now appears to have been achieved on the two Nord Stream pipelines," which means pressure from water entering the ruptured pipelines had stopped the gas from leaking.
However, the claim could not be independently verified. Nord Stream AG has already conducted a preliminary investigation and data collection at the site of the pipeline damage on Line 1 of the Swedish Exclusive Economic Zone. Besides, on November 1, 2022, the Danish Geodata Agency granted permission to Nord Stream AG to survey the pipeline rupture site in the Danish Exclusive Economic Zone. At the same time, under certain conditions, the Danish Maritime Authority has allowed access to the damaged area to carry out relevant work by maintaining a sufficient distance. The exclusion zone's radius for maritime navigation decreased from 5 nautical miles to 500 meters around the pipeline damage zone.
A preliminary investigation by Copenhagen police found evidence of damage to two Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Danish part of the Baltic Sea due to a "strong explosion." Denmark and Sweden told the United Nations Security Council that the leaks were caused by "at least two detonations" with "several hundred kilos" of explosives.
Russia and Nato members have been blaming each other over the ruptures to the pipelines, which are partly owned by the Russian state and partly by European energy companies. European leaders alleged that Russia was the mastermind behind the explosions to cause further havoc with gas prices or demonstrate its ability to damage Europe's energy infrastructure.
Map locating the approximate location of gas leaks detected in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines AFPThe Nord Stream gas pipeline accident may be the worst industrial methane accident. Authorities fear it could be the equivalent of one-third of Denmark's total animal greenhouse gas emissions, and there are rising fears that the disruption may cause a climate and ecological disaster. The long-term impact of this explosion is quite hard to quantify. Also, it is unknown what kind of threat awaits the surrounding marine environment of the Baltic Sea, but Greenpeace and other environmental organizations raised concerns. According to experts, the long-term climate impact of these emissions will be substantial as colossal amounts of so-called 'fugitive methane,' the most potent greenhouse gas, add to the atmosphere.
Neither pipeline was in operation when the accident occurred, as Moscow stopped delivering gas a month ago. Both pipelines contained an estimated 150-300 million cubic meters of natural gas. Based on available data, the assessment suggests that the leaks released more than 500 metric tons of methane per hour when the pipelines first ruptured. By contrast, the vast Aliso Canyon gas leak in the United States in 2016 spewed around 50 tons of methane per hour at its peak. So these leaks are mountainous in comparison to what happened in America. According to the chemical engineer Paul Balcombe at London's Queen Mary University, these leaks would result in around 200,000 tons of methane being released into the atmosphere.
Natural gas - is primarily composed of methane, the most potent gas that is silently baking the planet and the second biggest polluter after CO2; methane has been responsible for global temperatures rising by around 30% since the industrial revolution. In contrast to CO2, it does not last long in the atmosphere before breaking down. However, it is way more substantial in the short term. It is so potent that over 20 years, methane has heated the planet more than 80 times that of CO2. On September 26, a tiny Earth-observing satellite managed to spot one of these dramatic signatures. Atmospheric Scientist Thomas Lauvaux's study found that about 10% of the industry's methane emissions come from gigantic releases like this.
The leaks have already caused immeasurable damage to the economy and the environment. This leak is the most significant and super-emitting event ever. These pipelines had lost all their methane through water in the atmosphere; it is not yet possible to assess the size of the damage and how much gas would be absorbed by microbes in the water before reaching the surface but to compare the overall amount that will be lost in the process to far beyond the largest lignite power plant in Germany and this was that it would be a third of Denmark's annual emissions. Concerning people's health, living close to those leaks is no initial health hazard; actually, it's better than oil leaks, and there is no lasting damage to the marine environment in the short run. However, there will be consequences in the long run; it will disrupt the existing environment and climate pattern. But today, what the future holds for this region is unknown.
Many protocols, agreements, and commitments have been made at various climate conferences in the past and the recent climate conference in Egypt. Still, no one wants to take responsibility for environmental damage. The impact of such methane release into the atmosphere is disastrous. As a result of a single event like this, many climate policy measures taken in the past would be null and void. According to a calculation based on IPCC conversion factors, the leaked amount of methane has the same potential for over 100-year global warming as about 6 million tons of carbon dioxide, roughly the amount of CO2 emitted annually by mid-sized cities like Helsinki or Dayton.
If we can reduce methane emissions by about 45% in the next 10 years, we can shave off almost 0.3 degrees Celsius of warming during the next 2-3 decades. The Global Methane Pledge, launched in November by more than 110 countries at the COP26 Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, world leaders have acknowledged that reducing methane emissions is vital to avert the worst effects of climate change and its participants agreed to allocate resources to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030. By contrast, we are witnessing an incredible pace of construction of LNG terminals in the US and other major LNG rich countries. These constructions are not supposed to happen in the first place, and there shouldn't be pipelines.
Consequently, that confirms the reality of world leaders going against their promises. We must rely entirely on the future of renewables and not on fossil fuel infrastructures. Otherwise, those creating a Frankenstein of development by endangering the environment will one day pay a heavy price for this.
Md Zahurul Al Mamun is an independent climate researcher.
