Events in Mosul being well known to everyone, I will not tax readers’ patience by going through the details.
However, as things stand right now, Mosul is a quagmire that not even the best fighting forces in the world have any inkling about nor can it extricate itself in any reasonable time-frame.
“Bogged down” is actually an endearing term to describe Mosul. It looks like a no-go situation beyond human comprehension as lives continue to be lost in dozens even as I write this.
What are the options really available?
Are we in a position to fight IS in a besieged city where the murderers are known to be inhumanely brutal and ruthless? Is there any hope in the horizon?
I am no military or guerrilla warfare strategist.
I have never looked at weapons as a means to an end. I do not think peace can ever be found if war is considered a solution. As a peace warrior my options are limited if not limitless.
First rule of peaceful non violent combat is to disarm highly overcharged thought processes that see only two colours of the rainbow. Black and white isn’t in my domain of thinking.
I am grey, and while there is absolutely no credible proof of this colour being available in our cerebral region, the proverbial “grey matter” as we call it is a ruse -- but a necessary one. Using just a little bit of it, here is my “strategy” for military leaders to consider.
If it sounds too infantile, I would hope I am branded so, but only after it has been tried and tested. This is no “intellectual exercise,” it is a “cerebral exercise.” Let’s commence post haste:
Stage 1
Water therapy. Dry out all sources of water available to IS, their wells, their rivers, their tanks, their moats, and lastly their available water pipelines. Make sure we concentrate on pumping out all the water in the pipes and make it bone dry, so that whoever it is in the besieged city whether they are combatants or civilians only receive hot scorching desert air when they open their taps.
Stage 2
Continuation of stage one, wait. Pull back besieging allied forces of Shias, Sunnis, and US Special Forces to broaden the encirclement by another 5km or so. Let the enemy breathe in ecstasy and see signs of victory coming from Mosul when in reality a peaceful trap is being laid. Let them celebrate with more black flags and Allahu Akbars.
Stage 3
Wait for the thirst to set in. Give it 48 to 72 hours. Cut off power, gas, and food supply at this stage. Be patient.
Stage 4
After four to five days, look for signs of thirst fatigue, of people getting desperate. Employ your own special forces to infiltrate Mosul in disguise and create as much commotion over water as possible just not among civilians -- but also among IS fighters.
Stage 5
After a week see how many civilians have fled to your side in search of water. IS will of course shoot and kill any civilians trying to escape, but that’s an unavoidable collateral damage to be paid even in unarmed and peaceful civilian combat.
Stage 6
After about nine days when you have a thousand civilians who have risked lives and moved to your side, offer water directly to the enemy, medium and large bottles only. Do not use armed soldiers to deliver water. Do not ask your soldiers to deliver water at IS doorsteps but leave it mid way in a designated “no man’s land” far away from any snipers range and wait.
Stage 7
In 12 days, most of the civilians will be compelled by sheer thirst to come to your side. Do not be surprised that many IS fighters will have defected to your side too. Treat them humanely but make sure they are constantly monitored during their captivity so that they have no change of mind or have been sent to wreck your well-laid trap.
Stage 8
When IS has been “humanely neutralised” -- make your move. The next lot of water must be laced with sedatives or other non-lethal medicines. However the dosages must be very low giving you a 6/8 hours “window of opportunity” to knock everybody out unconscious. Do not use poison or other “honey traps” under any circumstances.
Stage 9
When all is quiet and there have been no shots fired nor any suicide bomb or vehicles sent your way in at least six hours -- make your move. Send in your special forces with silencer guns. Remember IS trains its recruits to endure thirst and fight on.
Do not be fooled.
You may have to neutralise as many as 100 to 250 IS fighters in the leeway. Kill them if absolutely necessary.
Stage 10
Disarm all IS fighters, strip them nude and march them to your nearest prison camps in full glare of the world media -- but do not make it a media tamasha. At this stage, unfurl the flags of Iraq and declare Mosul “free.”
And how to “peacefully and honourably” depose the IS tyrant the so called “Caliph al Baghdadi” will be explained in the next write up -- assuming the water therapy strategy is a success which I am sure it will be.
Maqsoodul Haque is a Dhaka-based jazz rock fusion musician.
