The recent killing of an Italian as well as a Japanese citizen, in Dhaka’s Gulshan area and Rangpur, has prompted debate as to whether this was a new initiative by ISIS in Bangladesh, all the way to conspiracy theories that it was an attempt by domestic political forces to de-stabilise the country. It seems premature, in the absence of credible evidence or the capture of the perpetrators, to dismiss either possibility.
There has also been an attempt by some to downplay the response of the international community, both those based in Bangladesh and overseas, as an over-reaction in the context of the number of foreigners that have been killed in Bangladesh. Statistically, one can have some sympathy with that view, to the extent that two deaths out of the 224,000 foreigners working in Bangladesh is a considerably smaller number than have been killed in other countries.
International hypocrisy?
In case of Thailand, the UK government reported that in the 12 months to April 2014, 362 Britons were killed there and 389 in the same period up to 2013.
The high profile death of more than 38 foreigners, including 30 Britons in the Tunisian beach attack earlier this year, was a much more recent example of terrorist violence. And in the aftermath of the October 1 Oregon shootings, where nine were killed and 20 injured, the Washington Post reported that so far, in the 274 days in 2015, there have been 294 instances of mass shootings, which they define as four or more people killed by gunfire.
We don’t hear of calls for the cancellation of all foreign travel to the US or Thailand -- prior to the latest killings Bangladesh was not seen as any more risk than India or Thailand or Indonesia.
You might also argue that the terrorism risk in Europe has been underplayed, given the Charlie Hebdo killings in Paris. Just last month, Andrew Parker, the head of MI5, stated that British authorities were monitoring 3,000 home-grown terrorists in the UK who have been active with ISIS in Syria, Iraq, and Libya, and have returned home. He said the six plots foiled in the UK in the past year “is the highest number I can recall in my 32-year career, certainly the highest number since 9/11.”
Nonetheless, there can be little dispute that the two killings have shaken the foreign community’s confidence in the safety of Bangladesh, perhaps precisely because such attacks have been so rare. It has been reported that a number of embassies have imposed a curfew on their foreign nationals after 6pm and almost all development
work outside Dhaka has been halted. A number of Japanese business delegations that were due in Dhaka this month have been postponed in light of the tragic murder of Mr Kunio.
Impacts on our economy
A majority of other countries will likely take the same risk-averse approach. This is especially frustrating given that FDI momentum in terms of mega infrastructure projects such as the JICA-funded Matarbari 1400MW power plant, and Japanese, Chinese, and Indian Special Economic Zones were finally gaining momentum, benefiting from the welcome lull in domestic political instability. The potential for Bangladesh benefiting from a Look East Policy were finally being realised.
The ADB forecast Bangladesh GDP growth for 6.7% FY 2015/16 looked credible in my view of the basis of the positive FDI outlook and scope for export diversification and the new industries that would result. Bangladesh’s economic stability also contrasted dramatically with other EM countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand which have proved to be much more vulnerable to the China slowdown and collapse in commodity prices, which is likely to continue in 2016 and probably 2017.
But such an optimistic economic scenario is very much at risk if the perception that Bangladesh is a dangerous place for foreigners is allowed to gather momentum. It has been reported that a number of embassies have already imposed a curfew for their staff after 6pm, and donors have suspended operations outside of Dhaka. A number of foreign visits in the RMG sector have been postponed and Japanese companies have been considering relocating staff out of Bangladesh.
So, whether we believe the reaction to the killings is overdone or not, and the Bangladesh risk perception is exaggerated, to some extent it is a reality, and to that extent this is a time for action and not complacency from the relevant authorities.
What needs to be done
To some extent, the Bangladesh government has taken a few initial steps to reassure foreigners by heightening security and police presence visibly in Dhaka. They have also begun the process of requiring foreigners to register with the local police station across the country so they can be offered better protection.
Ironically, Bangladesh had been given a positive review by the US State department, who, in their “Country Reports on Terrorism 2013” published last year, noted that “the government of Bangladesh has demonstrated political will and firm commitment to combat domestic and trans-national terrorist groups, and its counter-terrorism efforts made it harder for terrorists to operate or establish safe havens in Bangladesh.”
Moreover in 2009, the newly elected AL government formed an eight-member “National Committee for Intelligence Coordination,” with the Prime Minister as the Chairperson, to co-ordinate the intelligence activities of different agencies. The committee was also charged with improving the campaign against extremism through exchanges between law enforcement and intelligence agencies. So Bangladesh cannot be accused of not taking the terrorist threat seriously.
However, a more focused effort needs to be made to track down the killers and critically assess the structure of these targeted killings. The fact that both killings followed the same pattern, involving three people and a motorbike, might suggest there are other sleeper cells operating in the country.
This needs to be established quickly. It also makes sense to a greater extent to take technical assistance and support from counter-terrorism experts from the US, UK, and Europe. The fact that there has not been another large-scale terror attack on US soil since 9/11, reflects a huge investment in counter-terrorism prevention by the US government that can benefit our own initiative.
We also need to credibly signal to the overseas community that the authorities will have a focused attempt to prevent this happening again in the future. In this context, it makes sense to set up a dedicated counter-terrorism task force. This could be staffed by personnel with specialist experience from the existing law enforcement and intelligence agencies, as well as foreign experts on secondment.
To some extent, the immediate benefit of such a move is symbolic. But there is an important operational element as well as that such a new unit can play a critical role in co-ordination between the various law enforcement agencies and ministries within Bangladesh as well form more effective partnerships with foreign anti-terrorism agencies. In the US, a Joint Terrorism Taskforce (JTTF) has been in place since 1980.
However, in the aftermath of the 9/11 New York Terror attacks, this was expanded so the National Unit has 70 members and there are now representatives from 35 different federal agencies and while it is headquartered in Washington, there is a presence in 100 FBI field offices.
Between them, National and Local JTTF units have a total of 4,000 personnel, quadrupling since 9/11. The US Justice Department website states that the JTFF “chase down leads, gather evidence, make arrests, provide security for special events, conduct training, collect and share intelligence, and respond to threats and incidents at a moment’s notice.”
