The first part covered five points where the Trump regime was acting in ways to increase the chances of war over the next five years. Breakup of the world trading system, decline in supporting democratic movements, immigration actions causing world-wide interaction among professionals to break up, the US withdrawal from its role as a global policeman, and the destruction of foreign assistance flows to low-income countries. In this second part we cover the other five actions that Trump has initiated with fatal consequences for human society.
1. Destabilizing the world financial system: The stability of the world financial system is built on two constructs: The US will run a deficit in its balance of payments providing a flow of dollar assets that can be held by other countries. (These reserves are needed to manage a situation where a country has a balance of payments problem and uses its reserves to get through the situation at only a modest cost.) The second is that the US will follow a judicious path in management of its economy, laws will be followed and inflation kept low. It is now not clear that the US will follow this path. The economic policy of the unintelligible reciprocal tariffs, the threats to the chairman of the Federal Reserve with the intent to force him to follow the Executive’s wishes, fiscal policy actions underway to raise the government deficit that is already unacceptably high, and the chaotic efforts to reduce employment levels of the US government -- all of these actions have reduced the confidence in the financial stability of the US. The dollar is weakening, ie the price of dollars in other currencies falls and reduces the interest of non-American investors to hold dollars. The opening of cryptocurrencies opportunities with limited supervision will add to the dangers of holding dollars. All of this will raise uncertainty in the world economy, raising interest rates, reducing investment in plant, equipment and intellectual property.
Hence the financial stability of the world economy is threatened by the economic policies of the Trump administration. Instability of the financial system has widespread consequences for all dimensions of the world economy. Instability inhibits all types of financial transactions. Exchange rates become more variable and forecasts more difficult to make.
It is likely that the Trump administration will, during the next few years, withdraw from the IMF and remove the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Such actions will cause countries to reduce holdings of dollars and private organizations to hold fewer dollars.
2. Increase of racism: The Trump administration has signaled daily its racial prejudices, its dislike for Black Americans and Hispanics. It is remarkable to see this prejudice play out so openly. The president’s entire career manifests his racial prejudice. (See his niece’s book Too Much And Never Enough) He has made his disdain for Black Americans continuously and openly. He is particularly uncouth towards black men who have accomplished more than he has.
This prejudice has led Trump to take action to stop all efforts which aim to balance the position of blacks and whites; what are known as DEI programs (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion). Bleating that it is unfair to whites to have programs to help blacks, he emerges as an ignorant but cruel fool. The truth of American society is that even today the system treats the blacks unfairly, favoring the whites. This is evident in education achievement, family stability, wealth, access to home ownership, income, and treatment by the criminal justice system. Inequality is built into the operation of the system. Steady progress was made in trying to reduce the inequality that the administrative systems themselves produced. Trump leads an effort to reverse the progress that has been achieved over the past 50 years. The bitter legacy of slavery and unequal treatment and widespread cruelty is part of the US just as is the building of a great if imperfect democracy. The twisted views in the president’s mind so clearly described in his niece’s book is a sad commentary on this sickness. The great efforts to change the thinking of white Americans have made great progress but sadly the election results clearly show the depth of the racial attitudes.
Trump and his followers, the MAGA mob, are attempting to ensure that Blacks and Hispanics are kept suppressed. Asians are subject to the same disdain. It is a sad commentary that so many Americans support this return to racism and points to a deep division perhaps impossible to overcome. The efforts by the US, Canada, and Western European nations to build a multi-ethnic and multi-cultural society is not feasible.
Asian countries have consistently been against such multi-ethnic and multi-cultural nations. Many Chinese, Indians, and Bangladeshis move to the US and have a reasonable chance to build a good life; acceptance in the society with prejudice but the administrative rules are followed and ability is rewarded. But it is impossible for large numbers of white Americans to move to India, China, or Bangladesh and be accepted into the society as equals.
The result is a continued growth of racially structured societies. Trump’s administration actively opposing the growth of such a society and the political support he has received indicates that perhaps it is impossible. Perhaps eventually the US will return to the rocky path of building such a society but one has to be pessimistic.
3. Financing of elections: The US has moved steadily to a position where extremely wealthy people have undue influence through their ability to finance elections. Attempts to limit the contributions from the rich, thus limiting their influence, have all failed. Essentially one can contribute unlimited amounts anonymously.
What good is money in elections? First, the television advertisements. Second, the costs of the contacts by party agents going door-to-door to encourage choice and participation in the election. Third, the public presentations by the candidates who travel around to display themselves before the voters. The failure to establish a reasonable system for financing elections has led to a rapid rise in how much is spent for an election, as a result the role of the rich becomes more and more important. (A recent election of the chief justice of a state drew more than $1 billion in election financing.)
One might mention that cybersecurity is becoming increasingly important for both candidates and the organizations which conduct the election. Hacking skills and data analysis are becoming more and more complex. There are stories that the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election was influenced by both campaigns’ computer organizations with hacking operations in the seven swing states.
What is developing in the US spreads around and all countries will face these problems of limiting and auditing the expenditures of organizations which are involved in the elections. The approach that is evolving in the US focuses on allowing wealth to have much influence on elections to the disadvantage of most of the population.
The Supreme Court in the US has increasingly supported the dominant role of wealthy individuals and organizations in elections. This folly by the Court is undermining American democracy. The American democratic system is often the signal for how the mechanics of a democratic system should develop and the views of the US Supreme Court are often referred to in other judicial systems.
The disastrous election financing system in the US is not only changing the functioning of American democracy but setting a poor example for other democracies.
The financial stability of the world economy is threatened by the economic policies of the Trump administration
4. Climate change: Trump has effectively destroyed the role of the US government in actions that reduce greenhouse gas emissions resulting in the inability of humanity to prevent dangerous increases in the Earth’s temperature.
First, he is encouraging further growth in the production of fossil fuels. This includes drilling for oil and gas in locations previously not available to the industry. He is encouraging the use of coal as a fuel for power generation. In addition, regulatory organizations controlling the power sector are expected to be more supportive of private companies and fail to protect the general population from pollution. In these steps the US is moving in the opposite direction from other advanced economies and against its own pledges and policies of the past few years.
The Trump policies also move against the use of clean energy. The new administration is making every effort to stop the implementation of Biden’s policies to encourage electric vehicles, and solar and wind power generation. Trump wants to ease pressure on car manufacturers to control emission levels, reduce government support for recharging stations, and eliminate subsidies to reduce the cost of the electric vehicle. He is cancelling many approved wind energy projects. Also, he will raise tariffs on solar panel imports. This is a shocking attack on a key element of the critical effort to increase clean energy.
The US government is closing down research on climate science projects and studies of climate change policies. The US will no longer participate in international efforts to study and track the implications of climate change. The withdrawal of the US from these efforts will greatly weaken the level of research and data collection.
The other advanced economies will strike back in time with tariffs against American exports which are meant to force the American exporter to pay for the carbon discharged into the atmosphere in the production of the export goods. Conflicts over this will further destabilize the international trade system.
The abandonment of action against climate change is the most despicable action that Trump has taken. It illustrates the anti-scientific, unjustifiable ego by which this administration is destroying the progress of humanity. These policies are crimes against humanity and in due time the US will pay for Trump’s climate policies.
5. Science and technology: The role of science and technology in the US is fundamental to the future of the world. In the past 80 years, the world development of mathematics, physics, chemistry and biology have centred in the US. This has been an international effort, but the US government and the great American research universities were at the centre of this worldwide effort. This is evident in the Nobel prize awards. It was partly driven by the exodus of European scientists to the US before World War II.
In the area of technology, the invention of the chip, the development of computers and network communications have all led to revolution in the world economy, particularly in the advanced economies. Television emerged after WWII, the first of the great consumer changes. This revolution has resulted in great shifts in employment, in methods of communications, in the nature of art and entertainment, in medicine, and in industrial manufacturing. We stand on the verge of another revolution in the use of artificial intelligence. This will have striking consequences for employment, scientific research, and communications. What we can be sure of is that the scientific world and the technology that it produces will prosper. Trump, however, is on the road to take the US out of this game and allow the Europeans and Northeast Asians to take the lead.
Trump is reducing the government’s financing of research. He is attacking the great research universities. (He himself graduated from one with a terrible academic record and learned nothing of the scientific disciplines). His attacks on the scientific and technology communities will hamstring the role of the US. The Chinese scientific community is growing rapidly and there is real intent to become leaders in these areas. Trump is doing all he can to limit and destroy American science. Trump will cause within the next fifty years the US to be in the backwater of the world’s scientific community.
These five areas where Trump’s policies will destroy the future of the US will be devastated. The first of the five, the actions that will reduce the role of the US in the world financial system, will lead to 25 years of chaotic management of the financial flows among countries. The combination of the protectionist regimes emerging from the Trump policies and the instability of the world financial system will lead to greatly reduced economic growth and the consequences. Now, an extensive and reasonably well-managed Federal Reserve, under the guidance of the IMF, will become difficult and congestive. The result is a poorer world economy including especially that of the US.
The second, the return of racism and the prejudices that almost every country falls victim to. This will increase the likelihood of war, deform the relations between different ethnic groups and bring conflict and violence.
Third, the development of democracies will stumble over financing elections. The failure of the US to develop a sound method of achieving this will signal to the world that autocratic systems are a superior means of organizing government.
Fourth and fifth, Trump is destroying America’s greatest strengths and withdrawing from the battle for survival. He is undermining the efforts to limit the temperature of the earth and the difficulties arising from such. He is handing the leadership of the world to the Chinese while bleating about his imaginary great accomplishment.
Forrest Cookson is Research Adviser to the Centre for Research and Development. In Bangladesh, he led the central bank component of the Financial Sector Reforms; was the Team Leader of the study of Northwest Area Development of Bangladesh; and served as the Statistical Advisor of the Legal and Judicial Capacity Building Project. Part 1
