Bangladesh is acknowledged as a global leader in climate change adaptations and disaster preparedness. Its remarkable economic growth, despite vulnerability to climate risks, can be attributed to the pro-active measures taken since 2009 with the Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan.
All consecutive national strategic plans, including the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 provides specific guidelines on investments in early warning systems, disaster preparedness, reconstruction and recovery by recognizing the hazards of climate change. In a recent feat, efficient evacuation of over 700,000 people prior to cyclone Mocha's landfall resulting in zero casualties, showcases the remarkable disaster management in Bangladesh.
Unfortunately, more of nature's wrath awaits us since the country's geographical location is such; it is often called the “Ground Zero of Climate Change.” Despite being a minimal contributor of only 0.4% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the Global Climate Risk Index 2021 placed Bangladesh in the seventh position in terms of loss and damage from climatic events for the period of 2000-2019.
The challenges
A sub-tropical country of low-lying flatland with more than 230 rivers and their tributaries, Bangladesh is situated on the largest delta floodplain at the confluence of Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) rivers at an elevation of less than 10m above sea level.
It has the “perfect” variables of experiencing all the hazards resulting from climate change- rise in temperature, rainfall variability, sea-level rise, ocean warming and acidification, cyclones and storms, increase salinity, landslides, riverbank erosions, droughts, heatwaves, floods and flash floods.
Temperature that never rose beyond 0.0067 degree Celsius per year between 1961-1990 saw a sharp rise of 0.03 degree Celsius per year between 1991-2019. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts a further warming of 0.44 degree Celsius to 0.69 degree Celsius in the near term (2030s) and 1.3 degree Celsius to 2 degree Celsius in the mid-term (2050s).
Rainfall is predicted to increase all over the country by the 2050s with more during monsoon and post-monsoon season with recurrent episodes of heavy rainfall and decrease in light rainfall. Sea-level is expected to rise 0.11-0.12m in the near term, 0.23-0.27m in the mid-term and 0.54-0.86 in the long-term.
All of these are threats to water and food security, infrastructure, livelihoods, ecosystem, health, and biodiversity. Climate policy reform as well as better implementation is necessary as Bangladesh ranked as low as 163 out of 182 in the 2020 ND-GAIN Index which summarizes a country's vulnerability to climate change, global challenges, and their readiness to improve resilience.
The economic loss due to climate-induced disasters was calculated to be 1.32% of GDP from 2016-2021. The World Bank predicts that one-third of the agricultural GDP may be lost by the next 20 years and 13.3 million climate migrants may emerge in the next 30 years.
Although 58 out of 64 districts are considered to be extremely vulnerable, the Delta Plan 2100 identifies six regions of Bangladesh as the climate change hotspots: Coastal zone, barind and drought-prone areas, haor and flash flood areas, river systems and estuaries, Chattogram hill tracts, and urban areas.
Why is the coastal region on the frontline of vulnerability?
Over 30 million people living on the coast, in 19 districts comprising 27,738sq-km of area, are facing climate-induced water and food insecurity. Experts predict that approximately 18 percent of the coastal area could face devastating inundation by the 2050s. Compounded by sea-level rise, cyclonic storms will further induce floods with saltwater intrusion which will damage crops, fisheries, people's livelihood and cause human health deterioration.
How are flash floods debilitating the haor basin?
The haor region comprising seven districts and an area of 16,574sq-km is a wetland ecosystem in the northeast. The occurrence of early flash floods is the new normal. The flood events in 2017, 2019, and 2022 destroyed Boro crops, the heart of the northeast region's agriculture. Climate change-induced rainfall variability in neighbouring Indian states (Assam and Meghalaya) exacerbates the situation.
How is the barind tract battling drought in a changing climate?
Bangladesh's semi-arid north-western region consists of 18 districts and 22,848sq-km of area and experiences extreme temperatures. Climate change is expected to prolong the number of dry days, scorching summer heat, and dry up the soil further which will reduce the yield of wheat, Aus and Boro variants of rice, thus threatening the food and water security.
Climate change in hill tracts
The hill tracts regions of Bangladesh, home to indigenous communities have experienced over 30 landslide events since 1990, resulting in loss of life, livelihood, and property damage. Climate change induced intense monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall increases the risk of landslides.
Urban areas: The land of extremes
Heat waves are a concern in urban Bangladesh, with around 70 days per year experiencing temperatures greater than 35 degree Celsius. Dhaka recorded the highest temperature in 58 years in April of this year. Heatwaves decline productivity of labourers, spread infectious diseases, increase heat stroke in humans, increase mortality in livestock, and reduce water levels. Urban flooding is another threat due to heavy rainfalls and improper drainage systems. Change in seasonality is also extending the duration of vector borne diseases like dengue.
River systems and estuaries: The lifeline of people and economy
Bangladesh's river systems and estuaries generate 1,350 billion cubic meters of water annually. Climate change projections indicate an increase in the mean annual flow of the GBM river basins by 17-28%, 2-5%, and 1-4%, respectively in the 2050s. Approximately 10,000 hectares of land erode annually and increase in river flows will exacerbate erosion as well as flooding with greater sediment transportation downstream.
Source: BBS
Other adversities of climate change posing a direct threat to life are increasing lighting, turbulence in air travel, cyclones, post cyclone floods, tornados, and acidification of the Bay of Bengal.
How are our neighbours battling the climate change's wrath?
Despite low emissions contribution (only 0.027%), Nepal is projected to see a rise of temperature around 1.5-2.7 degree Celsius by 2100. Black Carbon (BC) accumulation, glacier melting, and glacier lake outburst floods may lead to 13 percent loss in GDP by 2100.
In Thailand, a country sharing economic similarities with Bangladesh, projections indicate a potential temperature increase of 0.95°C-3.23°C by the 2090s exceeding the 1986–2005 baseline period's record. As one of the ten most flood-affected countries globally, river floods may impact over 2 million people by 2035-2044, while coastal flooding could affect 2.4 million by 2070-2100. The iconic “Rice Bowl of South-East Asia” faces immense risks, putting its vital rice crop in jeopardy. With a sinking rate of up to 2cm (0.8 in) annually, experts warn that the capital city, Bangkok, could be submerged within two decades.
Which countries bear the greatest responsibility as polluters?
A New York Times analysis found that 23 rich industrialized countries are responsible for half of all historical emissions and more than 150 countries are responsible for the rest.
Source: World Resources Institute's Climate Watch Data
These top 10 emitters account for two-thirds of global emissions, with China, US, and India emitting 15 times more than others. These top 3 polluters are responsible for 42.6% of emissions compared to 2.9% from the bottom 100 nations. In terms of per capita emissions, India ranks lower due to its vast population.
How does Bangladesh gear up for a game-changer with carbon taxation?
Bangladesh's rapid growth and urbanization pose a high carbon emission risk without simultaneous transition towards renewable energy sources. Introducing carbon taxes in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka could prevent nearly 1 billion tons of carbon emissions by 2030.
A game-changing proposal emerges as the government plans to introduce a carbon tax in the upcoming fiscal 2023-24 budget. This bold move aims to curb fossil fuel usage, slash carbon dioxide emissions, and combat city traffic congestion. Car owners brace for additional taxes, ranging from Tk25,000 to Tk2,00,000, signalling a shift towards greener public transport.
Simultaneously, Bangladesh needs to explore solar, wind, tidal, and hydro energy as renewable alternatives. Innovative technologies, using the platform of blockchain and artificial intelligence are in use in Australia, UK, and Uttar Pradesh in India. This technology empowers consumers to track, trace, and pay for their energy consumption with excess energy efficiently distributed to communities in need.
As we witness the devastating impacts of climate change, it becomes evident that urgent global action is the need of the hour. By embracing green energy sources, we can contribute to a more sustainable and resilient world. Let us act now, with determination and solidarity, to combat climate change and ensure a brighter, greener future for generations to come.
Maliha Mannan Ahmed is an entrepreneur and public health communicator. She is the Founder and Managing Director of Organikare Limited. Joyee Chakma and Lamiya Sharmeen are leading YPF Environment and Climate Change Team. This is the third part of a series of articles on Politics and Policies of Climate Change, produced by YPF.
