There’s a spectre that has been haunting the world ever since the beginning of time, a spectre that has gotten the entire world in its clutches. People thought, with the great world wars, that the rider of the pale horse had gotten enough for a lifetime; but the rider has been waiting in a corner, biding his time.
He has shown his teeth a number of times over the years, turning the Middle East into a land filled with blood, and setting its sight on Europe next. Now that the wars are no longer restricted to the lands far away, but have come into our own backyards, the rider has been seen to smile, for he is on a path to consume us all.
Much has been said about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the part I find the most problematic is the fact that critics are describing this as unprecedented -- the first time any nation has invaded the borders of another sovereign state in a long time.
I do not agree with this assessment. For what about the bloodshed in Syria, where the many powers of the world employed unwilling pawns and cast them away like nothing when the deed was done? What about Yemen, where the robber barons of the Middle East launched powerful attacks using different methods that have further destabilized another region in the land of blood and sands?
If the attack in Yemen is justified as there was a different, militant faction of Muslims operating in the region, then how is Russia’s attack -- with the justification that Ukraine is home to various Nazi groups -- any different?
One can easily go back in time and have a look at how things were during the Soviet missile crisis. If America’s response then was to bring total nuclear Armageddon, then how is Russia’s response to being surrounded by Nato allied countries any different? Does being the protector of “democracy” automatically give one the right to act in aggressive ways?
The US still continues its expansion in South America, which saw things coming to a head in recent years where the US backed a presidential candidate that was not voted in by the people of Venezuela, but instead was someone that best served the affairs of the United States and its allies. And with the support that has been alleged to be given by the US to the dozens of right-wing groups in Venezuela (something that the US has employed a number of times in the past), how is it any different from sending its own Navy seals to the Venezuelan shores?
I feel that at this point of the article I have to make things clear. Just because I am broadening my scope and including other countries in a list which I consider to be a list full of tyrants, I do not consider Russia an innocent bystander.
Theoretically, I am left leaning, but that doesn’t mean I support war or will unilaterally blame the Western powers while being silent when it comes to the expansionist ambitions of the heirs of the iron curtain.
No matter what intention one has, war in a general sense can only give birth to more violence and more bloodshed. And as this cycle of violence continues, we find ourselves in a world where the doomsday clock has long become obsolete, and anxiety and dread have become the go-to emotion of all of mankind.
I acknowledge that the Russian invasion is different only insofar that, before this, all kinds of bloodshed and carnage happened in places like the Middle East and South America. These places are remote to use, far away from the reality we inhabit. And from the treatment that has been shown to the refugees that have come out of these nations, it is not controversial to say that there has been a case of othering here.
There has always been a divide between us and them, between the people who live under “barbarism” and those of us who live in the civilized world. With the Ukrainian invasion, our illusions have shattered. This veil that separated us from the others and gave us a sense of false security has fallen away. This is no longer happening in distant lands. The European conflict has shown that when it comes to the jaws of war, no one is safe.
And it has left all of us with the same question: Today, it is Ukraine. Tomorrow, what if it is us? Is the third great war we have been afraid of for so long finally upon us?
Yes and no would be my answer. Yes, tomorrow, it could be us that are on the receiving end of nameless technology; technology as such that Obama employed in the infamous Kunduz Hospital airstrike. But at the same time, I would say things are going to take more time. And while I would want to deny the possibility of a great war by saying that war is more diplomatic and technical than it was in the olden days -- which is indeed the case -- I would be lying if I said that I can’t sniff the odour of gunpowder.
For a long time, the tactic of global expansion has been employed by the west, and there have been marked graveyards as proof. But now, the western world order has met its match, and the area in which engagement is permissible has been expanded.
The UN has long been criticized as an international retreat for the powers-that-be where bureaucrats spend taxpayer money to play poker, but now that something terrible has happened close to home, I think this would be the final nail in the coffin for the UN. Just like the league of nations was nothing more than a vanity of our hubris, so too will the UN be regarded in the coming pages of history.
Although there has been an increase in bilateral and global alliances, the inability of Nato when it comes to Ukraine should be a wake up call for people around the world that the only one they can rely on are themselves. Russia had been defanged in the 90s, and the only reason it has been able to roar again is because it has been concentrating its mind and resources in its military wing for the past several decades. Following this, it only makes sense that the global arms race will be getting a strong second wind.
I, myself, was against the procurement of weapons just a year ago, but watching a game of death unravel in real time, I hope Bangladesh does its best to beef up its military. I even hope that we emerge as a nuclear power, as two of our neighbours already have that capability; and when it comes to sitting in a room with people who have machine guns, I wouldn’t feel safe with a rusty old six shooter.
A writer on these very pages pointed out that this war is the perfect opportunity for China and Russia to grow its global empire, and soon, people around the world will have to set the same stock on Rubles and Renminbi the same way they have to do for the almighty green. We will be entering the second phase of the cold war, and chess pieces will be moved here and there as part of the game. I don’t even rule out an occupation of Taiwan by China at this point, although that is more of a late game maneuver, and there are other complications between the two countries that I cannot get into when it comes to the scope of this piece.
Ukraine will fall, and the anxiety that casts on the rest of Europe will be hard to shake off. Nato is already mobilizing in the states it occupies, and Russia has already made dangerous threats against further aggression. We can prepare for the worst, but I predict that for a long time, what we will be under is a stalemate.
It is indeed a strange game, where the only winning move is to not play.
But anxiety is bound to get the best of us, and when there are massive deals and oil pipelines at stake, something has to give. I predict that we will see more proxy wars and other small skirmishes here and there, and that the tension within states will grow.
People of a certain sect in Bangladesh are already cheering for Russia, and why wouldn’t they? Where was the West when their brothers and sisters were slaughtered in Yemen? What has the UN done when it comes to the question of occupied Palestine? At the same time, the US media have been caught red handed interviewing alleged neo-Nazi groups in Ukraine.
We are long past the point where we might conjecture that America means well. They care about nothing but themselves, and their continued support for right wing groups like this will spell disaster for the world over, just like it has been the cause for 9/11.
There has been a strong wave of nationalist and right-wing uprising around the world, and with these latest developments, the dichotomy of us versus them will grow even more. Finally, the chess board will be perfectly placed where all of the pieces are in perfect distance for the kill. And when all is said and done, something will have to give. Whether intentional or unintentional, a move will be made, and all moves thereafter will be a consequence of that one single moment.
But we must not forget that we have been coming to this moment for more than a century. For the rider of the pale horse doesn’t take rest. It doesn’t take prisoners, and it doesn’t change course. Just like the Nazis were allowed to continue their work out of sight through despicable operations like Operation Paperclip, all that the great world wars have achieved is to conceal the dust left behind by the rider for a bit.
And now, the veil has lifted. For the rider has been hungry, and his prize has been long overdue. And as the doomsday clock makes a full circular movement, we civilians will be left behind to bear the burden.
The burden of a world that is lost to the wind. The burden of a world that was always supposed to be lost. Rivers will run red, people will die, and even the best of intentions will have monstrous consequences.
For this world has been on a single highway for a long time, and what lurks at the end is not a pretty sight.
Sans lingua franca, the world will be torn asunder. And then, it shall be free.
The secret fate of all life.
Apocalypse.
Nafis Shahriar is an apprentice sub-editor at Dhaka Tribune.
