Bangladesh is making notable progress towards its 12th parliamentary election, with the Election Commission (EC) announcing that the polls will take place on January 7, 2024. The disclosure of the election schedule has provided lucidity to the political milieu, alleviating a prolonged period of uncertainty and suspicion.
In the months leading up to now, there has been a sequence of coordinated actions, both within the country and on the global stage, piling pressure on the incumbent government. The Bangladesh National Party (BNP) has called for the establishment of a caretaker government to supervise the election.
International actors, endeavoured to cultivate an environment characterized by ambiguity and apprehension among government officials, political party leaders, law enforcement personnel, and judiciary members by employing the tactic of visa rejections as a means of intimidation and many others. Despite these coordinated efforts, the government maintained its resolute stance.
As the electoral process unfolds, a pertinent question arises: Can Bangladesh anticipate an election devoid of violence?
The primary issue is in BNP's announcement to impede the election under the existing constitutional framework. Uncertainty prevails around the BNP reconsidering their decision and their subsequent involvement in the electoral process. Currently, evidence reflects the party's hesitance to participate in the election, thereby boosting the potential for internal disputes.
Recent events suggest the possibility of a division within the BNP since Trinamool BNP has already indicated its desire to partake in the upcoming election. There is widespread speculation over the potential realignment of several figures from the BNP to Trinamool BNP, a development that could undermine the organizational strength of the party. The critique put out by Bir Bikrom Hafizuddin Ahmed against the central leadership of the party highlights the presence of internal divisions.
In a recent press conference, 125 leaders, who have previously held or currently hold leadership positions within the BNP, expressed their intention to partake in the next election. Concurrently, the party's central leadership demonstrated assertiveness by dismissing these leaders, causing further internal discord. There is further speculation over the affiliation of other leaders with alternative platforms if the central leadership continues to boycott the election. This situation presents significant organizational issues for the party.
Within this complex political landscape, the BNP faces a perplexing dilemma, resulting in a restricted range of choices which necessitates its participation in the forthcoming election. The party's lack of ability to effectively showcase solid political power at the grassroots level has dramatically hindered its ability to apply significant pressure on the government. The party's limited street presence has had a dual impact, impeding its ability to shape public opinion and its effectiveness in negotiating with the ruling Awami League.
On the contrary, despite the emergence of tensions in recent months, the AL possesses a strategic edge. The ruling party's capacity to withstand the political obstacles and sustain a unified stance has put it in a favourable position in anticipation of the next elections. Their exhibited tenacity in response to pressure from opposing forces, along with their skillful maneuvering within this turbulent political environment, has only strengthened its position.
The possibility of engaging in a political dialogue is severely limited due to the recently declared election schedule. Hence, the letters sent by Donald Lu, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs of the US government, to AL, BNP, and Jatiya Party (JP), advocating for unconditioned dialogues among prominent political factions, are unlikely to have any significant influence on the nation's political landscape.
However, the correspondence has elicited surprise and concern, particularly over the deliberate omission of specific political parties. The omission of other political parties from the list in the letters has generated disputes over the underlying purpose of the intended conversations.
As the country approaches the election, the EC assumes a crucial role in ensuring a free, fair, and credible election and it is necessary for the EC to effectively manage and overcome any possible obstacles. The EC must prioritize ensuring the safety and security of the political parties involved in the electoral process and the general voting population.
Successfully addressing these difficulties necessitates a nuanced equilibrium between the preservation of democratic principles and the effective operation of the voting apparatus. The EC must maintain a state of constant vigilance, taking proactive measures and ensuring impartiality in its endeavours to establish an election atmosphere that enables individuals to freely exercise their democratic entitlements, devoid of any apprehension or coercion.
Maintaining the next election's integrity is contingent upon the EC's proficient management of interruptions. They must not only uphold democratic norms, but also cultivate a politically active atmosphere, thereby safeguarding the fundamental values of democracy.
The nation commences on its electoral journey through the declaration of the official election schedule. The people of Bangladesh await an upcoming election that is expected to be distinguished by ideals of freedom, fairness, and credibility.
Dr Pranab Kumar Panday is a Professor in the Department of Public Administration at the University of Rajshahi.
