An impending humanitarian crisis: What lies ahead for Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover?

On November 30, a roundtable discussion on regional and international implications of the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan was jointly arranged by Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) and Dhaka Tribune.

Held at The Westin, Dhaka, the event titled Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan: Regional and International Implications was moderated by the President of BIPSS, Major General ANM Muniruzzaman, ndc psc (Retd) and Editor, Dhaka Tribune, Zafar Sobhan. The session was attended by many distinguished dignitaries, ambassadors, foreign diplomats, government officials, editors, and scholars.

Geostrategic and geo-economic issues regarding Afghanistan, the role and regional players -- such as India, Pakistan, China -- along with regional and international spillovers were discussed at the event. This event is a part of the ongoing series of discussions being held on these emerging security issues.

Former chairman of Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS), Major General Muhammad Firdaus Mian (Retd); Professor of International Relations,  Dhaka University, Dr Lailufar Yasmin; and Assistant Professor at East West University, Parvez Karim Abbasi, participated in the event as the designated panelists.

After years of bloody conflicts with the government and US-led NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) forces, the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, seizing Kabul on August 15 this year.

Against the backdrop of Taliban takeover, the discussants at the roundtable placed great emphasis on a stable Afghanistan, and stressed the need for a holistic approach from the international community, in order to save the Afghan people from a humanitarian disaster looming on the horizon.

The failure of the international community to act at the right time will make Afghanistan vulnerable to food security issues, violent extremism, poverty, as well as financial crises. 

The situation in Afghanistan is still very fluid, and therefore, South Asia needs to understand the complexities of the problem arising in Kabul, along with its impacts.

The discussion also encompassed the implications for Bangladesh, in terms of violent extremism.

Major General ANM Muniruzzaman (Retd), President, Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS)

Afghanistan is a major humanitarian disaster waiting to happen. Big powers are rushing in to cash in on Afghanistan’s mineral resources. The country is also a source of three other unwanted commodities: One is the instability of Afghanistan, which can reach other countries; second, the violent extremism that will reach other countries -- not only in the region, but beyond South Asia as well; and the third is drugs. The international drug landscape is going to experience a tremendous spike in the coming years because of increased poppy production in the country. 

Therefore, whatever happens in Afghanistan internally will not just have regional but international implications as well. We have talked about the failure of the last 20 years in Afghanistan, about the international occupation of Afghanistan. But what we have overlooked is the internal successes which the Afghan people have constructed in the past two decades. In the last 20 years, we also saw the rise of a vibrant Afghan civil society, revival of women’s education, women empowerment, and a fair degree of press freedom -- both in terms of print and electronic media. We saw the culture of Afghanistan coming back up to the forefront. These are the strengths of Afghanistan, which must be caught and consolidated; we cannot let them go to waste. 

A failed Afghanistan will be a source of instability for the region with far-reaching geostrategic and geo-economic implications. Afghanistan is already experiencing the dire effects of a financial meltdown -- an ideal environment for radicalization and terrorism to thrive. Furthermore, neighbouring states have already engaged in a regional competition, which will only compound the negative impacts on stability. Pakistan, Iran, Central Asian countries, and India are already engaging in the situation, with the emerging role of China also being a significant factor. 

The role of major powers, namely China and Russia, will be of great importance. Afghanistan should not become the battleground for major powers, as it previously was. Rather, it is the responsibility of these powers and regional players to ensure a stable Kabul emerges in the interest of the security of the wider region. The battle should be for the Afghan people, and that is our hope. 

Zafar Sobhan, Editor, Dhaka Tribune

We recognize the fact that at this particular juncture, we cannot abandon Afghanistan and the Afghan people, and leave them to their own devices. We certainly need to consider the potential for instability, which can actually extend from Afghanistan as an epicenter. 

It’s very strange that such a remote, mountainous, and land-locked region should actually have such influence over geopolitical affairs. We are moving into an increasingly volatile time. We see various players on the international stage, moving away from cooperation towards a more confrontational stance. It seems that Afghanistan, because of its geographical location, is very much going to be caught up in this. So when we take Kabul into consideration, we cannot just talk about Afghanistan and the Afghan people only. We actually have to look at it in the context of geopolitics. I think, however complacent we might wish to get, Afghanistan has a way of impacting all of us, whether we know it or not; whether we like it or not. 

Major General Muhammad Firdaus Mian (Retd), Former Chairman, Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS) 

The pullout of US-led NATO forces from Afghanistan created a huge vacuum in its security, economic situation, financial management, social understanding, and many other discourses. But there was no preparation as to how this vacuum is going to be filled; how is this population of about 40 million people -- which is one of the most complex societies comprising of Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras, and Nuristanis -- going to be governed, and by whom?

After 100 days of the Taliban takeover, the Afghan government is now facing the issue of legitimacy and acceptance, and is yet to be recognized by any international community. The financial assistance has been stopped. As a consequence, the Afghan people are suffering from hunger, poverty, and violence, along with a society that is becoming unstable and restless. In such an environment, terrorism thrives. Violent extremism may rise, as Afghanistan can become a potential ground for militancy. So the question remains: Is Afghanistan again becoming a sanctuary for regional terrorism? There are some other factors which may play an important role here:  The Khorasan Province, Haqqani Network, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, Northern Alliance, and some other, smaller groups. 

The regional associations and international community must act quickly in providing them with financial support, releasing their assets, giving humanitarian aid, and help them institute a government with a parliament, an electoral system, governance, and the capacity of fighting terrorism and insurgency in the country. If that doesn't happen, it is going to be a failed state, which will, by extension, affect its neighbouring regions.

Dr Lailufar Yasmin, Professor, Department of International Relations, Dhaka University 

A number of diplomatic activities have been taking place in terms of regional powers trying to settle with the Taliban led government, in order to establish some semblance of normalcy within Afghanistan. 

The neighbouring region is concerned about the stability and creation of an inclusive government in Afghanistan. It is being argued that it should include representatives from different ethnic and religious groups. And that's how Afghanistan’s stability can be provided. While talking about an inclusive government, whether it is going to be on the basis of democratic nodes or representation -- that is yet to be seen. Interestingly, it is the external factors and their ideas that are being carried here. 

China has been trying to mobilize this internal crowd, as well as the external crowd, so that the Taliban-led government could receive international recognition. China is driven by two particular reasons for its engagement in Afghanistan: The Uighur Muslims, and threats from Islamic terrorist groups that China may have to face.

Afghanistan has provided an area for China and Russia to come closer. So we need to be mindful of this, and its short and long-term interests. 

Parvez Karim Abbasi, Assistant Professor, East West University 

Afghanistan’s economy is a rentier economy in the classical sense -- always driven by aid extortion, resource extraction, and corruption. Since the Taliban takeover, there’s skyrocketing inflation; cash is almost out, foreign currencies have been confiscated, the economy is bankrupt, and there’s massive capital flight. 

In this situation, it’s almost ridiculous to talk about the three trillion dollars’ worth of mineral reserves. 

It is not economically feasible to extract much of the mineral resources, which are on paper. It’s a mountainous region. So you need railways, power, and improved connectivity. It requires, at least, seven to ten years (if the conditions are right) to extract these resources. What is not feasible now might become feasible later, but that is for the future. 

Rare metals like lithium, uranium, and Neodymium are found in substantial quantities in Afghanistan. For any kind of green energy transition, Asia will require Afghanistan. Moreover, China and America are fighting for the supply chain control of lithium. 

There is no political stability in Afghanistan. In 2019, The Chinese had invested over $400 million, whereas, the US FDI  was only $18 million -- which means the Chinese already have a strategic footprint in Afghanistan. 

China also knows that there is a possibility it can be bled dry in Afghanistan. They are going to require either the Pakistani security establishment, or groups which are allied with them, to deliver the security umbrella before investing in a big way, or before extending the $62 billion CPEC up north.

If Afghanistan unravels, it is bad news for the entire region. Afghanistan has a way of affecting every country in the subcontinent and beyond. If we ignore this reality, we do so at our own peril.

It is not economically feasible to extract much of the mineral resources, which are on paper. Rare metals like lithium, uranium, and neodymium are found in substantial quantities in Afghanistan. For any kind of green energy transition, Asia will require Afghanistan. Moreover, China and America are fighting for the supply chain control of lithium. 

In 2019, The Chinese had invested over $400 million, whereas, the US FDI was only $18 million. China also knows that there is a possibility it can be bled dry in Afghanistan. They are going to require either the Pakistani security establishment, or groups which are allied with them, to deliver the security umbrella before investing in a big way, or before extending the $62 billion CPEC up north.

Afghanistan has a way of affecting every country in the subcontinent and beyond. If we ignore this reality, we do so at our own peril.

HE Yousef SY Ramadan, Ambassador, Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Embassy of the State of Palestine, Bangladesh

In the history of Afghanistan, no one was able to rule the country. The culture of the Afghan people is such that they reject someone who dictates them. We also misunderstand one thing -- we think it is because of the Taliban that Afghanistan treats women the way we see. It is not the Taliban; it is the culture of Afghanistan. It is only the Americans who wanted to present the model of the West and inject it into the Afghan culture when they were in Afghanistan. 

Shamim Ahmed, Former Ambassador

The int
ernational community should take it as a responsibility, to help Afghanistan and the government in Kabul to tide over the situation -- which will be further accentuated as winter sets in. And I hope that the American government will play a particular role in this, because they facilitated the Doha agreement. As soon as the Doha accord was signed, one could foresee what's going to happen, which is the Taliban takeover of Kabul. Everything happened as per the Doha playbook. 

Jehanzeb Khan, Counselor, High Commission for Pakistan 

Pakistan has long standing, deep-rooted, historical, cultural, religious, and ethnic ties with Afghanistan. And apart from Afghanistan, the only country which has suffered immensely would be Pakistan. This is the first time in over four decades that Afghanistan is not in a state of active conflict. So, there is finally an opportunity to end this conflict in Afghanistan, root out terrorism from the Afghan soil, and enable the Afghan people to rebuild their country -- which will usher in a period of peace and prosperity for the whole region, and beyond. And this is the starting point from which Pakistan is proceeding. A peaceful and stable Afghanistan will be a win-win for the country, and all regional states. 

Ayesha Kabir, Consulting Editor, Prothom Alo

During the Soviet rule, or even when the US was in Afghanistan, the women weren’t that suppressed or repressed -- they had very vibrant journalists and parliamentarians, and girls were going to school. Now, with this Taliban takeover, I can't help but be cynical about the position of women there. Girls have stopped going to school. Many of the female journalists whom I know have had to flee from Afghanistan, including some parliamentarians. So, I think, perhaps we shouldn't be so complacent about the women's situation there. 

Forrest E Cookson, Economist, Research and Development Center

Afghanistan's economy is very simple: It produces drugs and relies on foreign aid, and it has a pretty good agricultural system. I think that's what will continue, but the amount of foreign aid will probably become much less now. However, the other two driving forces -- the ability of Afghans to do well in agriculture, and produce heroin -- that's what we will see in the future.

Subham Barua, Research Intern, BIPSS

The previous rhetoric that a militant has to have battle experience to consolidate a high ranking is no longer the case. Someone who can navigate through social media -- which, by the way, is the main source of sustenance for militant groups in the country -- can become a prominent leader. This can have various devastating effects on the youth and, in turn, the transnational movement of aspiring militants. 

Shafqat Munir, Research Fellow, BIPSS, Head of Bangladesh Centre for Terrorism Research (BCTR) 

There are serious concerns for Bangladesh, as we speak. It is a testament to our CVE approach in Bangladesh that so far, we have not had any problems; but we have to be very careful that Afghanistan does not, once again, become a safe haven for international militant groups. We should be observing the situation in Afghanistan very closely, because it has significant national security ramifications for us.  

Mariam M Ragaei, Deputy Head of Mission, Embassy of the Arab Republic of Egypt 

What will be the regional response, when it comes to the regional organizations, to deal with the security threats, which the Kabul situation might pose at the moment? Bangladesh is a member of BIMSTEC and SAARC; what will be the initiatives in the future, so that we can deal with the security situation in Afghanistan? When it comes to Pakistan, China, Russia, and the rest of the group, what is the vision to deal with Afghanistan, and prevent the repercussions on other countries?

Dr Nazia Manzoor, Senior Lecturer, North South University

A conversation on Afghanistan must consider how international foreign policy is now geared towards feminist foreign policy. Immediately after 9/11, when the invasion of Afghanistan was becoming a reality, probably for the first time in modern contemporary political history, did we see instances where feminism was trotted out as one of the reasons why an invasion of a sovereign nation might be justified.

So when we talk about the role of women in Afghanistan, we must really put the conversation in the context of how women and women’s bodies have always been a part of warmongering missions, and we must really consider how Afghan women’s lives have, for years, been controlled, surveilled, and managed.

Some key points of the discussion:

●    We need to monitor the situation in Afghanistan very carefully, because whatever happens there has direct implications and bearings on South Asia, South East Asia, Central Asia, and beyond. The fluidity of the situation makes it difficult to assess from outside. But, it is important for us in South Asia, in particular, to understand the complexities of development.

●    The international community must engage in Afghanistan to save its people from the looming humanitarian disaster and the country’s successful survival.

●    Historically, many have tried to venture into Afghanistan to rule; however, none of them could last -- perhaps due to their failure to understand the Afghan people’s psyche, expectations, humility, social understanding, and religious beliefs. 

●    Some key actors -- notably the United States and its allies, Beijing, and Pakistan -- will have influence on what is going to happen in the future. Other actors such as India and Iran, and many of the Central Asian Republics are trying to chalk out their positions.

●    The regional organizations have a bigger role to play for a stable and peaceful Afghanistan. 

●    Afghanistan should not be in the hyphenated relationship of the India-Pakistan rivalry, and conflict like that will not be conducive for Afghans or the South Asians. 

●    It is not economically feasible to extract much of the mineral resources.

●    It has implications on the use of geo-energy and geo-economics, along with social implications. 

●    As Afghanistan currently is in a situation that favours violent extremism, Bangladesh needs to remain vigilant to protect itself from this menace. Afghanistan needs to pursue an independent foreign policy posture, where it is not aligned or dependent on any single regional or extra regional power.