Bangladesh’s private sector economy returned to expansion territory in October following two consecutive months of contraction, driven by robust gains in agriculture and marginal recoveries across manufacturing, construction, and services.
The headline Bangladesh Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose by 3.2 points from September to reach 51.8 in October, moving past the neutral 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction.
The index is jointly published by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), Dhaka, and Policy Exchange Bangladesh (PEB), with support from the UK Government and technical assistance from the Singapore Institute of Purchasing & Materials Management (SIPMM).
All four major economic sectors registered expansion readings in October, though at varying paces:
- Agriculture (61.2): Led the economy with its 14th consecutive month of expansion, gaining 6.0 points from September. Growth was underpinned by increases in new business, activity, employment, and a return to expansion in order backlogs.
- Manufacturing (50.9): Gained 6.1 points to re-enter expansion. Improvements were recorded in input stocks, finished goods, imports, and employment. However, underlying demand remained soft, with new orders, export orders, and factory output continuing to contract amid elevated input costs.
- Construction (51.0): Advanced by 2.5 points as employment returned to growth and order backlogs expanded. Overall construction activity and new business remained in contraction, while input costs rose significantly.
- Services (50.3): Crept into growth territory with a 1.3-point increase, helped by a return to hiring, even as new business and overall business activity continued to shrink.
Bangladesh PMI Performance (Oct 2026)
Sector | October 2026 PMI | MoM Change (Points) | Status | Key Drivers & Stress Points |
Composite PMI | 51.8 | +3.2 | Expansion | Rebounded after two months of contraction |
Agriculture | 61.2 | +6.0 | Strong Expansion | Strong new business, employment, and backlog growth |
Manufacturing | 50.9 | +6.1 | Expansion | Stock replenishment up; new orders & output still shrinking |
Construction | 51.0 | +2.5 | Expansion | Employment recovered; activity and new business contracting |
Services | 50.3 | +1.3 | Mild Expansion | Hiring picked up; activity and new business lagging |
Despite the positive headline figures, business leaders warned that the recovery remains fragile.
High input costs and persistent weakness in new orders across non-agricultural sectors point to sluggish demand.
The October PMI reading marks a small but positive development... supported particularly by stronger agricultural and export performance. However, the recovery remains fragile: new orders and business activity are still shrinking across manufacturing, construction and services, while input costs remain elevated, said M Masrur Reaz, chairman and CEO, Policy Exchange Bangladesh.
He also highlighted that ensuring reliable energy supplies, easing working-capital constraints, and stabilizing operating costs will be critical to sustaining recovery and converting positive business expectations into concrete long-term investment.
