Bangladesh’s inflation rate has risen again in July after a continued decline since April earlier this year. But economists and insiders hope that it may ease further due to global commodity prices, domestic demand environment, and Bangladesh Bank's continuation of a tight monetary policy.
The general point-to-point inflation rate in the country in July 2025 reached 8.55%. In July 2024 it was said to be a 12-year high at 11.66%.
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) data on Thursday said before the latest uptick since April 2025, point-to-point inflation was 9.17% in April, 9.05% in May, and 8.48% in June.
In June earlier, it hit the bottom over the past 35 months since 2022, when it was 7.48%.
Earlier in January, point-to-point inflation was 9.94%; in February, 9.32%; and in March, 9.35%, respectively.
However, FY25 ended with average inflation at 10.03%, which was the highest in the past 14 years.
July trends
BBS data analysis shows that food inflation in July rose to 7.56% from 7.39% in June, reversing a seven-month downtrend, while non-food inflation slightly rose to 9.38% from 9.37%.
The point-to-point inflation rate increased in both the rural and urban areas last month.
In rural areas inflation rose by 0.09 percentage points in July, reaching 8.55% from 8.46% in June.
Rural food inflation grew from 7.14% in June to 7.36% in July, and non-food items grew to 9.73% in July from 9.72% in June.
On the other hand, in urban areas, overall inflation rose by 0.01 percentage points in July, reaching 8.95%, up from 8.94% in June.
Within this, food inflation in urban areas stood at 8.04% in July, compared with 7.99% in June. Non-food inflation rose 9.55% in July from 9.53% in June.
Regarding the inflation trend, Dr Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute (PRI), told Dhaka Tribune: “General inflation in July registered a moderate uptick to 8.55%, driven by a slight inward adjustment in both food and non-food inflation components.
“However, this movement does not indicate a major reversal in the broader disinflationary trend. Inflationary pressures are still expected to ease further over the next four to five months, aided by stabilizing global commodity prices and a relatively restrained domestic demand environment.”
“In this context, it is prudent that the Bangladesh Bank has opted to maintain the policy rate at 10%, as reaffirmed in its recently released monetary policy statement. This decision signals continuity in its cautious stance to anchor inflation expectations while allowing room for macroeconomic stability to take root,” he explained.
The central bank has set a target of containing inflation within the 6.5% ceiling for FY26.
