Nine years after more than 700,000 Rohingya fled a brutal military crackdown in Myanmar and crossed into Bangladesh, not a single large-scale repatriation has taken place, leaving around a million refugees trapped in an increasingly desperate existence with no clear path home.
August 25 marks nine years since the 2017 influx transformed Ukhia and Teknaf in Cox’s Bazar into the world’s largest refugee settlement.
Since then, repeated negotiations, verification exercises and attempted repatriations have failed to produce a sustainable return.
The latest development initially offered another glimmer of hope.
Of the information on 828,824 Rohingya submitted by Bangladesh in phases, Myanmar has verified 426,545 and recognised 308,797 as former residents of Rakhine.
But Myanmar has provided no timetable for their return, saying repatriation cannot begin until the security situation in conflict-torn Rakhine improves.
For refugees who have heard similar assurances for years, another verified list means little without a date and guarantees of safety.
Mohammad Yunus, 48, said: “I have heard many times that the list has been made, it has been verified. But till date, no one has been able to return to their village safely. They are only raising our hopes with the list and then disappointing us again.”
Noor Begum, 36, said: “I am not even sure whether my family's name is on the list. If there is a name but no return date, then this list is of little value to us. We want to return to our country with dignity.”
Nine years, little change
For the Rohingya, nine years have brought little improvement to the fundamental conditions of their lives.
Families remain crowded into fragile bamboo-and-tarpaulin shelters, with limited opportunities for education and employment.
Healthcare remains constrained, while declining international assistance has increased pressure on food and other essential support.
Insecurity has added another dimension to the crisis, with crime, drug trafficking and human trafficking posing growing concerns inside and around the camps.
Mohammad Salam, 55, said: “We have been waiting for nine years. Now we are hearing about the list of 309,000 people. But if there is no security in Rakhine, a paper list will not change our lives.”
The Rohingya say their conditions for returning have remained largely unchanged: security, recognition of citizenship, freedom of movement and the ability to return to their original communities.
Without those guarantees, they fear repatriation could simply expose them to renewed persecution and displacement.
Bangladesh carries mounting burden
The prolonged crisis has also placed Bangladesh under mounting economic, environmental and security pressure.
Hosting such a large refugee population for almost a decade has affected forests and biodiversity in Cox’s Bazar, while adding pressure on public services, infrastructure and the local labour market.
At the same time, declining international funding has made sustaining the humanitarian response increasingly difficult.
The United Nations and other international organisations have consistently maintained that Rohingya repatriation must be voluntary, safe, dignified and sustainable.
Yet continuing conflict in Rakhine, political instability and unresolved questions over citizenship have kept those conditions out of reach.
As August 25 returns for the ninth time since the exodus, verification of nearly 309,000 Rohingya provides another administrative milestone, but still no road home.
Nine years, multiple lists and repeated promises later, the central question remains unanswered: when will the first meaningful repatriation actually begin?
