Nine years after the mass Rohingya exodus into Bangladesh, hopes of returning home have faded into deepening uncertainty, with repatriation stalled, violence continuing in Myanmar’s Rakhine State and a worsening humanitarian crisis pushing growing numbers of refugees towards dangerous sea journeys.
More than 1.2 million Rohingya are now living in 32 camps in Ukhiya and Teknaf, nine years after hundreds of thousands fled Myanmar following the military crackdown that began on August 25, 2017.
The population has continued to grow, with 154,690 new arrivals registered between December 2024 and July this year.
For many refugees, the overriding wish remains unchanged: to return safely and with dignity to their homes in Rakhine.
But fighting between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army, which now controls much of Rakhine, has made prospects for repatriation even more remote.
The prolonged uncertainty is increasingly taking a human toll.
UN data cited by Save the Children shows the number of Rohingya attempting to flee Bangladesh and Myanmar by boat has risen 90% from last year.
At least 530 Rohingya who left for Malaysia in July aboard a smugglers’ vessel have remained missing for nearly three weeks.
The trend follows the deadliest year on record for Rohingya sea crossings.
Nearly 900 died or went missing in the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal in 2025, while more than 6,500 attempted the journey.
More than 2,800 had already taken to the sea between January and April 13 this year.
Repatriation stuck on paper
Bangladesh and Myanmar first signed a repatriation agreement in November 2017, followed by arrangements intended to complete returns within two years.
Yet not a single large-scale voluntary repatriation has materialised.
Attempts in 2018 and 2019 collapsed as refugees refused to return without guarantees over citizenship and security.
Myanmar says it has now verified 426,545 of the 828,824 names submitted by Bangladesh, identifying 388,797 as former residents of Rakhine. But verification has produced no timetable for their return.
The diplomatic dispute has meanwhile sharpened.
Myanmar recently rejected accounts of more than one million Rohingya being displaced into Bangladesh and again referred to them as “Bengalis”.
Dhaka formally rejected the terminology and disputed Myanmar’s statistics.
Dhaka looks beyond failed bilateral efforts
With bilateral repatriation effectively stalled, Bangladesh is increasingly seeking a broader political solution involving Asean, China, Turkey, Malaysia, Norway and other international partners, while pushing for guarantees of citizenship, security and dignified return.
UNHCR spokesperson Shari Yasmin Nijman said conditions inside Myanmar remain unsuitable for voluntary, safe and sustainable repatriation.
“Ultimately, the solution to this crisis lies with Myanmar,” she said, stressing that any return must be voluntary, informed, safe and dignified.
State Minister for Foreign Affairs Shama Obaid Islam echoed that position, saying refugee camps could never become a permanent substitute for a homeland.
“The Rohingya crisis originated in Myanmar, and its sustainable solution must ultimately be found in Myanmar,” she said, calling safe, voluntary and dignified return “the only sustainable path”.
Former ambassador M Humayun Kabir said there was no way to predict how much longer the crisis would continue.
“It will depend on political will,” he said. “If there is political will, it is possible in a shorter time.”
Nine years after the exodus, that political will remains elusive.
For more than a million Rohingya living in Bangladesh, the question is no longer how many repatriation agreements are signed or names verified, but whether any of them will finally open a road home.
