Results of the first phase of the upazila polls are likely to have an impact on the next phases, as the Awami League will face challenges to perform better while the BNP could face the need to rein in the influence of Jamaat-e-Islami to ensure future victories.
Awami League leaders predict that they could face further setbacks if the trends of the first phase are repeated in the next phases, which would also give archrival the BNP a chance to strengthen support for future movements.
On the other hand, despite their recent successes, the BNP is finding it difficult to compete with the popularity of Jamaat, after leaders of the Islamist party bagged 12 chairman posts by defeating BNP-backed contenders in various areas.
Several BNP leaders expressed concerns that Jamaat might be aggressive in seat sharing with the BNP, putting the party in trouble in many areas and creating the potential for poor performance in the upcoming phases.
In the first phase of the polls, BNP-backed candidates won 43 upazila chair posts, Jamaat bagged 12, and the Awami League secured 34 seats out of 96.
The strengths and weaknesses of both the major parties, especially regarding rebel candidates, were exposed during the poll, allowing them to rethink their strategies for the future rounds of voting.
Around one and half months after the January 5 national polls, the disappointing performance of the ruling Awami League could be morally damaging for grassroots supporters, leaders said.
“We could not do well in the first phase of elections and the impact of this result could be visible in the upcoming phases,” said Advocate Sajedur Rahman Khan, general secretary of Natore district Awami League.
Nuh-ul-Alam Lenin, a presidium member of the Awami League, told the Dhaka Tribune: “We were behind in the results as we did not ensure a single candidate in every upazila. If our leaders realise this and can take the initiative, the result might be different. It is also tough to draw any conclusions after seeing the result of just one phase.”
The first phase of the polls also exposed strained relations between the BNP and Jamaat in many areas, as Jamaat was disinclined to extend support to the BNP-backed candidates.
In Sylhet, the BNP-Jamaat relation worsened when Jamaat wanted two upazilas for themselves for the next phase, while the BNP wanted to give them only one out of six upazilas.
BNP Vice-Chairman Shomser Mobin Chowdhury held an emergency meeting with the alliance leaders yesterday evening to finalise alliance candidates in six upazilas.
Abdul Gaffar, district BNP general secretary, said: “Nothing was finalized regarding candidate selection but there is a problem going on with Jamaat regarding seat sharing. We hope we will reach a consensus soon.”
Jainal Abedin Chan, general secretary of Bogra BNP, said the party would not team up with Jamaat for the campaigning in the rest of the
upazilas, as the Islamist party did not keep its word in the first phase of elections.
In the second phase, elections will be held in four upazilas where both BNP and Jamaat have contenders.
Bogra district Jamaat Nayeb-e-Ameer Alamgir Hossain told the Dhaka Tribune: “There is hardly any possibility to forge an understanding with the BNP under the prevailing situation. We will set our candidates.
“It will not create trouble in the internal understanding of the [19-party] alliance,” he claimed.
