Three leading election monitoring groups have come out with their observations on voter turnout, which are closer to the EC figures than to the opposition’s claims. Observers Janipop and the EWG have placed the figures at 30% and Brotee at 37%.
The Election Commission had earlier claimed that 40.69% voters had cast their votes, whereas the BNP claimed that the turnout was in the range of 8-10%.
Janipop (national election observation council), the Election Working Group, and Brotee emphasised that they were obstructed by training staff prior to elections and were also unable to survey extensively because of risks of violence.
The Fair Election Monitoring Alliance (FEMA), another leading poll observer, is yet to release its findings but has made some observations.
Even as the observers released figures close to the EC’s, they did not go so far as to claim that the elections were entirely free and fair; they all noted that the turnout was far lower than historic standards.
Commenting on the gap between Janipop’s estimate and that of the EC, Nazmul Ahsan Kalimullah, chairman of Janipop, said: “Elections were held in 147 seats and we monitored in 75 seats. The calculation of the Election Commission was based on 139 seats. The difference does not seem unexplainable. We were unable to officially observe [elections in] villages where turnout was reportedly much higher than in towns. So, because of the commission’s extensive database, its number is within credible limits.”
On the day of the election though, quoting FEMA, some media claimed that the turnout was 10%. But, FEMA President Munira Khan said she had been misquoted.
“FEMA officials monitored polls in three seats, partially in Dhaka, until 2pm. Based on that observation, the voter turnout appeared little.” Munira Khan said FEMA had not yet received all the reports from its local correspondents.
Brotee estimates that the voter turnout on January 5 stood at 37% although in Dhaka it was 26%. Speaking at a press conference on January 10, Sharmin Murshid, chief executive of Brotee, said a 5% deviation was quite normal.
Sultana Kamal, executive director of Ain O Salish Kendra and a former caretaker adviser, said: “The main reason behind the low turnout was fear. Many of my colleagues informed me about the threats conveyed by the opposition to the voters, especially the Hindus. There were several incidents of arson and threats were made the night before the election, about which I was informed later.
“In some districts such as Dinajpur and Joypurhat, opposition supporters checked people’s fingers to find out if they cast votes. I was saddened to learn that an aged person in Joypurhat died of heart attack after thugs had attacked his house accusing the inhabitants of voting.”
Criticising the EC’s management, Joint Secretary General of Bikalpadhara Bangladesh Mahi B Chowdhury said: “The information provided by the Election Commission is not acceptable by any means. But, the survey of Janipop and Brotee seems to be acceptable. I think the Election Commission would be in a serious awkward situation if they had to cover 300 seats instead of 147.”
Salimullah Khan, who teaches at a private university and keeps track of political developments, said: “Turnout this time was definitely much lower than usual. A big part of it can be attributed to the boycott by the main opposition, and the consequent lack of competition in many seats. But the opposition’s active role in trying to disrupt the election process and the risk of violence were also big concerns.
“To know the accuracy of any observation, one needs to know their sample size and method. But since several organisations with credible past records are reporting over 30% turnout, it seems that despite many discouragement a lot of people still wanted to come out to vote.”
Monjurul Ahsan Bulbul, CEO of a private TV channel and a leader of a faction of a journalists union, said: “Compared to the 87% turnout in 2008, even the Election Commission’s figures show that it was half this time. But turnout is not the only factor in deciding the validity of an election. The commission failed to prevent ballot-stuffing and other irregularities in many places.”
Bulbul’s concerns were echoed by several election observers. Sharmin Murshid of Brotee pointed out that while lack of competition in constituencies and the risk of violence were the main contributors to a low turnout, the EC needed to do a more convincing job of ensuring that no fake ballots were cast. “Even a single instance of such activity can reduce people’s confidence in a poll.”
