BNP is sure of winning 261 of the 300 seats in the next parliamentary elections if it is held free and fair, according to three surveys conducted at the instruction of BNP Senior Vice-Chairman Tarique Rahman.
The remaining 39 constituencies will see candidates of the ruling Awami League-led alliance winning, according to the surveys. However, there will be neck and neck fight between candidates of the two alliances.
A BNP leader who is also a close aide of Tarique told the Dhaka Tribune the surveys found there were conflicts among the leaders of the BNP in over 50 constituencies and if the conflicts could be resolved, the party could win a few more seats.
The main opposition party is now preparing its list of candidates for 255 seats, leaving 45 seats for its alliance partners, he said.
Based on the surveys, the opposition party is also preparing a list of probable candidates of the ruling Awami League-led alliance and trying to finalise its candidates to make sure who would do better against the probable ruling alliance candidate, said party insiders who are aware of the surveys.
The result of one of the surveys says the opposition alliance will do well in Rangpur region, which is known as the stronghold of Jatiya Party and where BNP fared poorly in recent elections.
Tarique Rahman gave instructions for conducting three surveys and the party is now gathering the results of the surveys and working to finalise a list of candidates on the basis of the findings.
Candidates who were found winner in all the three surveys would be given the party’s nomination for the next general elections, a highly placed source close to Tarique said.
According to the survey results, the BNP may not win in 39 seats, which are Nilphamari 1, 2, 3; Rangpur 1, 2, 3, 5; Kurigram 3; Lalmonirhat 1, 2; Gaibandha 2, 3, 5; Naogaon 6; Sirajganj 1; Pabna 4; Jessore 6; Magura 1; Narail 2; Bagerhat 1; Khulna 1; Barguna 1; Patuakhali 3; Pirojpur 2; Tangail 1, 8; Jamalpur 5; Sherpur 1; Mymensingh 1; Kishoreganj 1; Faridpur 4; Gopalganj 1, 2, 3; Madaripur 1, 2, 3; Shariatpur 1; and Khagrachhari.
The BNP is finalising names of three candidates for each seat on the basis of the results of the three surveys. It has selected one candidate each for 150 constituencies, but it has also kept two alternative names as backup.
If the first nominated candidate fails to participate in the polls, the second one will get party nomination, and by chance the second one fails, the third candidate will get the party ticket.
The evaluation of the survey says for finalising nominations the party will consider the constituencies of the candidates: for example, if there are two upazilas in one constituency, the candidate will be picked considering the size of his/her area and the number of voters.
Tarique Rahman had the surveys conducted by private firms with the help of some of his close aides. His personal assistant Mia Nuruddin Opu coordinated the survey. However, the names of the private firms could not be confirmed.
BNP Standing Committee member Goyeshwar Chandra Roy on Saturday told the Dhaka Tribune that Tarique had conducted surveys in the past, too, and the party had benefited from those surveys.
