Soon after the Narendra Modi-led BJP government took office in 2014, BNP, known for playing an anti-India card in the Bangladeshi political landscape, began initiatives to mend its relations with the ruling party in India.
Back then, some leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its ideological mentor the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) had some sympathy for the BNP.
But the scenario has now changed.
India has made it clear that it will not stand by BNP ahead of the general election—scheduled to be held in the last week of December.
The sole reason for this is that it has not cut ties with it long-time ally Jamaat-e-Islami.
“We found it very positive when the BNP shunned its anti-India stance and initiated to open relations with Delhi,” said a BJP leader, who keeps tabs on Bangladesh issues.
“But the problem is whatever they may say, it is clear to us now that they are not ready to cut ties with Jamaat,” said the Cabinet member before adding that intel also suggested the same.
But what exactly was the intel?
Tarique’s Jamaat links in London
BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia’s son, and presumed political heir, Tarique Rahman has been in a self-imposed exile, in London, for the last 10 years.
According to Indian intelligence sources, he maintains close relations with Jamaat leaders.
He has not been seen with Jamaat leaders in public recently, but has maintained links.
Tarique, the senior vice-chairman for BNP, now acts as party chief after Khaleda was sentenced to five years in jail in the Zia Orphanage Trust graft case.
He was also sentenced to 10 years in jail in the same case. He had been sentenced to seven years in prison in a prior money-laundering case.
He has been in London since he went there for treatment after being released on bail during the 2007-08 caretaker government.
Jamaat’s hub in the British capital is the East London mosque London Muslim Centre. Bangladeshi-origin Jamaat leaders dominate its trustee board.
Tarique has not been seen at the mosque in recent times, but has close contacts with the centre’s leadership.
Jamaat Spokesperson in the UK Abu Bakar Molla is responsible for maintaining contact while the BNP’s UK unit Chief MA Malek is the liaison for Tarique.
Khaleda adamant about Jamaat’s 5-7% vote bank
Citing reputed confidential sources, Indian intelligence agencies say jailed Khaleda is adamant over securing the “committed votes” of Jamaat.
According to them, Khaleda believes that the Jamaat’s vote bank will boost BNP’s possibilities of winning.
“We came to know that Khaleda has instructed party leaders, from jail, that Jamaat’s vote has to be secured. Especially, if Jamaat cannot contest using its polls symbol, then the votes will be diverted to BNP, this is what she believes and that is why she does not want to cut ties with Jammat,” said the source at Indian intelligence.
In 1991, Jamaat secured over 12% of votes. As part of the BNP-led coalition, it secured four percent of the vote in the 2001 and 2008 polls.
HT Imam’s brief to Delhi
During his recent India visit, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Political Affairs Adviser HT Imam, made it clear to New Delhi that BNP has no strength of its own; whatever it is doing now is by riding on Jamaat’s success.
“Dhaka has made it clear to us that the BNP supporters seen on the streets are actually activists of Jamaat and [its student wing] Islami Chhatra Shibir,” said an Indian foreign ministry official, who attended the meeting with Imam.
“Jamaat is funding, as well as providing people for, BNP’s movement. So, it is totally untrue that the parties have no relation,” added the official.
As New Delhi is certain that BNP is not ready to leave Jamaat, it has decided not to stand by the party in any way.
Yet, several BJP leaders have maintained that India should not put all of its eggs in one basket by betting on the Awami League.
BJP has decided on its stance because Jamaat remains BNP’s trusted ally.
