Shutting down schools is neither justified nor prudent. Once again, the government is solving the wrong problem
File photo of some students with new books in school premises Dhaka Tribune
Zafar Sobhan
Publish : 21 Jan 2022, 07:21 PMUpdate : 22 Jan 2022, 11:11 AM
Contrary to popular perception, I think that the government has in fact handled the Covid crisis tolerably well over the past two years.
There have been some serious missteps such as the mishandling of procurement which left us without sufficient vaccines for months and the fiasco of inter-district travel during various festivals throughout the pandemic.
But, for the most part, given the challenges of our population density and rudimentary health care services coupled with the famed Bangladeshi disinclination to follow instructions, things have turned out much better than almost anyone anticipated.
Notably, the government made a correct tough call early on about re-opening the garment industry (a call I and many others opposed at the time) and has in general struck a decent balance between safeguarding the health of the nation and keeping the economy going.
It is for this reason that the most recent decision to shut schools again for two weeks comes as such a disappointment.
The government's biggest misstep, in my estimation, over the two years of the pandemic has been the closure of schools for the majority of this time.
When the dust settles and accounts are drawn up, we will find that the negative impact on millions of schoolchildren far outweigh any benefit that accrued from these closures. Indeed, the negative impact will be felt by an entire generation for their entire lives.
It would have been one thing had the entire nation been locked down as it was for 2 months at the start of the pandemic, but for the factories, offices, marketplaces, malls and the like to remain open and only schools to be shut was the height of folly.
Basically, it has been the children who have borne the brunt of our Covid policy, and, as has been covered within these pages over the last two years, the burden has fallen disproportionately on children of lesser means and their parents.
Countless children have dropped out of school never to return, it is poor and rural children who have not been able to avail of alternative educational arrangements, child marriage is up, child labour is up, and working women have dropped out of their jobs in droves as a result of this misguided policy. The full impact is only just now starting to be understood and it may take years before we can measure it accurately. But there can be no doubt of the cost.
It is for this reason that the government’s decision to reopen schools last September, while belated, was so salutary.
The recent decision to close them again for two weeks is precipitous and ill thought out in equal measure.
Let’s look at the numbers.
The seven-day moving average for deaths is still in single digits. It is lower than it has been at any time since May 2020 at the start of the pandemic to the middle of last October.
There was a one-month period from July to August last year where in excess of 200 people died each day.
In fact, the number of deaths the day schools reopened last September was 51. On January 20, this number was 4.
Given these numbers, it beggars belief that we are now shutting schools down again.
The authorities point to the fact that Covid infections are high and climbing, but this ignores the fact that the proportion of these infections which are serious is very low.
The health minister claims that one-third of hospital beds in Dhaka are currently occupied. By what measure does one-third constitute a crisis? The same is true for Covid ICU units which are below 20% occupancy.
The current rise in Covid infections coinciding with the arrival of the Omicron strain on our shores is not something to be taken lightly, but it should not be cause for panic, either.
We need to factor in the understanding that while many people may be getting infected, relatively few are falling seriously ill, and far fewer dying, when compared to any time in the 18 months from May 2020 to October 2021.
We should also factor in that of the roughly 28,000 Covid deaths that Bangladesh has suffered, fewer than 1% have been under the age of 18 and fewer than 0.20% have been under the age of 10.
Even in the US with almost 850,000 Covid deaths, the number of those under the age of 18 who have died of Covid is fewer than 750.
Given these numbers, the fact that we are asking our children to bear the burden of fighting this pandemic by shutting down schools is ill advised and unconscionable.
Don’t make children pay the price
Shutting down schools is neither justified nor prudent. Once again, the government is solving the wrong problem
Contrary to popular perception, I think that the government has in fact handled the Covid crisis tolerably well over the past two years.
There have been some serious missteps such as the mishandling of procurement which left us without sufficient vaccines for months and the fiasco of inter-district travel during various festivals throughout the pandemic.
But, for the most part, given the challenges of our population density and rudimentary health care services coupled with the famed Bangladeshi disinclination to follow instructions, things have turned out much better than almost anyone anticipated.
Notably, the government made a correct tough call early on about re-opening the garment industry (a call I and many others opposed at the time) and has in general struck a decent balance between safeguarding the health of the nation and keeping the economy going.
Also Read - Educational institutions closed for two weeks amid Covid surge
It is for this reason that the most recent decision to shut schools again for two weeks comes as such a disappointment.
The government's biggest misstep, in my estimation, over the two years of the pandemic has been the closure of schools for the majority of this time.
When the dust settles and accounts are drawn up, we will find that the negative impact on millions of schoolchildren far outweigh any benefit that accrued from these closures. Indeed, the negative impact will be felt by an entire generation for their entire lives.
It would have been one thing had the entire nation been locked down as it was for 2 months at the start of the pandemic, but for the factories, offices, marketplaces, malls and the like to remain open and only schools to be shut was the height of folly.
Basically, it has been the children who have borne the brunt of our Covid policy, and, as has been covered within these pages over the last two years, the burden has fallen disproportionately on children of lesser means and their parents.
Countless children have dropped out of school never to return, it is poor and rural children who have not been able to avail of alternative educational arrangements, child marriage is up, child labour is up, and working women have dropped out of their jobs in droves as a result of this misguided policy. The full impact is only just now starting to be understood and it may take years before we can measure it accurately. But there can be no doubt of the cost.
Also Read - Experts concerned over educational institution closure
It is for this reason that the government’s decision to reopen schools last September, while belated, was so salutary.
The recent decision to close them again for two weeks is precipitous and ill thought out in equal measure.
Let’s look at the numbers.
The seven-day moving average for deaths is still in single digits. It is lower than it has been at any time since May 2020 at the start of the pandemic to the middle of last October.
There was a one-month period from July to August last year where in excess of 200 people died each day.
In fact, the number of deaths the day schools reopened last September was 51. On January 20, this number was 4.
Given these numbers, it beggars belief that we are now shutting schools down again.
The authorities point to the fact that Covid infections are high and climbing, but this ignores the fact that the proportion of these infections which are serious is very low.
The health minister claims that one-third of hospital beds in Dhaka are currently occupied. By what measure does one-third constitute a crisis? The same is true for Covid ICU units which are below 20% occupancy.
The current rise in Covid infections coinciding with the arrival of the Omicron strain on our shores is not something to be taken lightly, but it should not be cause for panic, either.
We need to factor in the understanding that while many people may be getting infected, relatively few are falling seriously ill, and far fewer dying, when compared to any time in the 18 months from May 2020 to October 2021.
We should also factor in that of the roughly 28,000 Covid deaths that Bangladesh has suffered, fewer than 1% have been under the age of 18 and fewer than 0.20% have been under the age of 10.
Even in the US with almost 850,000 Covid deaths, the number of those under the age of 18 who have died of Covid is fewer than 750.
Given these numbers, the fact that we are asking our children to bear the burden of fighting this pandemic by shutting down schools is ill advised and unconscionable.
Zafar Sobhan is Editor, Dhaka Tribune.
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