Global food and energy prices are set to rise sharply this year and stay under pressure in 2027, which could add to inflationary pressures in import-dependent economies such as Bangladesh.
The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook, released on October 28, projects global commodity prices to rise 23% in 2026.
The main drivers are a 32% jump in energy prices amid the Middle East conflict, disrupted grain shipments, and weather risks linked to a strong El Niño.
Food commodity prices are expected to rise about 10% in 2026 and a further 7% in 2027, a cumulative increase of about 18%.
The bank warned that the combined shocks could worsen inflation and food insecurity in vulnerable economies.
The report does not give a Bangladesh-specific forecast for food inflation or domestic prices.
Bangladesh’s exposure will depend on international prices, import costs, exchange rates, and how much is passed on to consumers.
Food inflation in the region
Year-on-year food inflation in South Asia rose to 5.8% in the third quarter of 2026, above the region’s 2010–19 average of 5.6%.
The bank said projected increases in grain and vegetable oil prices are likely to intensify these pressures.
Rice prices were 24% higher than a year earlier in the third quarter of the year, from July to September 2026, amid El Niño-related weather concerns in South and Southeast Asia.
The bank forecasts rice to rise 10% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, as global production is expected to fall for the first time in a decade.
Wheat prices are projected to jump 28% in 2026 and 14% in 2027.
In the third quarter of the year, grain prices rose 9% and stood 25% higher than a year earlier, while wheat rose 13% and was 40% higher.
The bank’s overall food price index remained 12% above its year-earlier level in October.
Fuel, fertilizer, and metal
Energy prices are projected to rise 32% in 2026, reversing three years of declines.
Brent crude is forecast to average $91 a barrel this year, against $69 in 2025, before easing to $79 in 2027.
Global oil supply is projected to fall 5.2% in 2026, the largest drop in more than four decades outside 2020.
Asian LNG prices were almost three times their pre-conflict levels in mid-October, as Gulf supply remained constrained.
Fertilizer prices are expected to rise 14% in 2026 after an early-year surge in urea, then fall 12% in 2027.
Higher fuel and fertilizer costs can raise farming and transport expenses, which is why these movements matter for a country that relies on imported energy and agricultural inputs.
Metal prices are set to reach a new high in 2026, rising 25% as prices of aluminum, copper, and tin all hit record highs.
These gains reflect strong demand from investments in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and data centers, together with supply disruptions this year.
Prices are expected to decline by 3% in 2027.
Precious metals prices are forecast to increase by 40% in 2026 as demand for safe-haven assets remains elevated amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
They are expected to moderate somewhat in 2027 but remain more than three times their 2015–19 average.
El Niño and Bangladesh tea
The report names Bangladesh in its discussion of tea. It says El Niño could reduce tea production and quality in South Asia, particularly in Bangladesh and parts of India.
All South Asian countries are highly or moderately exposed to El Niño, according to the report.
The market picture is more balanced.
The global tea market remains well supplied, helped by rising production in northern India and Bangladesh.
The report does not forecast a specific decline in Bangladesh’s output.
Tea prices at the Colombo and Kolkata auctions fell 1% in the third quarter as weak demand outweighed weather-related output losses.
The bank expects tea prices to rise 4% in 2027 and 2% in 2028 as demand recovers, particularly in the Middle East.
Risks ahead
Overall commodity prices are forecast to fall 7% in 2027, but the outlook is vulnerable to geopolitical and weather shocks.
If higher energy prices, attacks on Black Sea grain shipments, and a very strong El Niño combine, Brent could average $105 in 2027.
Food prices could be 12% above the baseline, and grain prices could be 20% higher, exceeding 2022 levels for food.
The bank said such a scenario could push more people into extreme poverty.
The World Bank Group has made $50–60 billion available through existing instruments, including $25 billion in pre-arranged financing, to support safety nets for vulnerable people, fiscal capacity, and working capital for firms and farms.
“Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once,” said Ayhan Kose, World Bank’s deputy chief economist and director of the Prospects Group.
“Higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad range of commodities, threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity, and economic growth. The priority must be to protect the poorest people and support low-income countries already struggling with heavy debt burdens.” Ayhan added.
