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What next for Hasina in India?

  • It has been 3 weeks since Hasina landed in India
  • Reports suggest India is exploring options to send her to a third country
Update : 27 Aug 2024, 03:12 PM

Three weeks ago, on the evening of August 5, in a highly dramatic turn of events, Bangladesh's former prime minister Sheikh Hasina landed at Hindon airbase near Delhi, India. Accompanying her on the Bangladesh Air Force aircraft was her younger sister, Sheikh Rehana.

The next day, the Indian government officially announced her arrival in the country's parliament. However, despite three weeks passing since her landing, there has been no formal communication from Delhi regarding Sheikh Hasina's stay in India.

The spokesperson for the Indian Ministry of External Affairs has been avoiding all questions related to Hasina, and no official statement has been issued at the government level.

Moreover, there has been no indication from Delhi about whether she will be granted political asylum.

This lack of official information has led to widespread speculation and rumours regarding Hasina's stay there.

Relocated by helicopter

After landing in India, Hasina spent her first night at the VIP lounge of Hindon airbase in Ghaziabad. Hindon, primarily a military airbase, has provisions for senior military officials to stay. The following day, she was reportedly relocated to a safe house or guest house of the paramilitary forces in Ghaziabad, which is in the state of Uttar Pradesh.

However, it has been learned that she was moved from there to a secret location in Delhi under the cover of darkness late one night, possibly by helicopter. Around 10-12 days ago, residents of South Delhi were surprised to see a helicopter flying overhead late at night. It is unusual for helicopters to fly over Delhi at such hours. Several locals observed this phenomenon from various parts of East and South Delhi, and some even posted pictures on social media.

Upon analyzing subsequent events, experts are fairly certain that Hasina and Rehana were brought to Delhi by helicopter that night. There are several military helipads within Delhi, and the helicopter likely landed at one of them, from where they were transported by car to a nearby secret location.

Meeting with daughter?

Sheikh Hasina’s daughter, Saima Wazed, also known as Putul, has primarily been living in Delhi since last year due to her role as South East Asian regional director for the World Health Organization (WHO). She resides in a highly secure environment in an upscale area of South Delhi. However, when Hasina arrived in India on August 5, Saima was on a WHO mission in Thailand but quickly returned to Delhi.

Two and a half days after Hasina’s arrival, Saima tweeted on the morning of August 8 that she was heartbroken that she could not visit or hug her mother “during this difficult time.”

This indicated that despite being in the same city, the mother and daughter had not yet met.

Saima might not have been permitted to meet Hasina, who was temporarily taking refuge in India, as an officer of a United Nations agency. Although Hasina is her mother, Saima’s official position made such a meeting diplomatically sensitive.

However, within 24 hours, Saima deleted the tweet. She has not made any further comments on social media regarding her mother since then.

Several senior officials in Delhi hinted that the mother and daughter had met in person several times in the city, but these meetings had not been made public for different reasons. India preferred to keep the situation out of the public eye, they said.

One source even suggested that mother and daughter were staying together or under the same roof in Delhi, although this claim could not be independently verified.

Saima Wazed left for East Timor on WHO business a few days ago, so any meeting with her mother likely occurred before her departure.

Debriefing sessions

Given the circumstances under which Hasina arrived in India, it is customary for India’s security agencies to debrief such guests. The former prime minister of Bangladesh is no exception.

The purpose of this debriefing is to gather as much information as possible about the situation that led her to leave her country, the roles of various individuals or organizations during that time and the actions or statements made by those involved. It is also intended to inform her about what India expects from her during her stay.

These debriefing sessions are usually conducted over several days. It is reported that Hasina has already undergone several such sessions.

Notably, when the Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama fled the region in 1959 and entered India, he also underwent extensive debriefing sessions.

The Dalai Lama entered India on March 31 of that year through the Tawang border in Arunachal Pradesh and then descended to the plains town of Tezpur. India’s security agencies debriefed him there for three weeks before he was brought to Delhi to meet then-prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru. The Dalai Lama, however, had been assured of political asylum by Delhi before his arrival, a promise that was honoured.

Similarly, when Indian Air Force fighter jet pilot Abhinandan Varthaman was captured in Pakistan in 2019 while pursuing a Pakistani warplane, he too underwent debriefing by the Indian military after Pakistan gave him back to India. Such procedures are standard in such situations.

What is exceptional in Hasina’s case is that her debriefing sessions are being conducted personally by India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. Considering the former prime minister’s honour, importance and dignity, Doval has apparently taken on this responsibility himself.

Doval also personally welcomed Hasina when she arrived at Hindon airbase on August 5. It has also been confirmed that Sheikh Hasina has been in contact with India’s top officials several times over the past few days, although the exact identities of these individuals remain undisclosed.

Attempts to send Hasina to a third country

There is increasing speculation that Sheikh Hasina’s stay in India may be extended, but at the same time, India is also exploring the possibility of sending her to a third “friendly” country.

India's official stance remains that Sheikh Hasina is in India “temporarily,” meaning that India is not her final destination and that she is merely transiting through India en route to another country. But the Indian government has not provided any timeline for how long she might stay in India, nor has it commented on whether she will be granted political asylum.

When Sheikh Hasina first landed in India, there was an expectation in Delhi that she might be able to leave for the United Kingdom within a few hours. When that did not materialize, Delhi began reaching out to other countries.

It has been learned that the countries initially approached included Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and a couple of European countries (likely Finland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia).

However, it is important to note that Hasina did not apply for asylum in any of these countries; all discussions were conducted by India.

The factors considered were Hasina’s security and safety in the third country, the track record of that country in granting political asylum, the strength of the Bangladeshi diaspora there and their political orientation.

For whatever reason, none of the countries initially approached ticked all the boxes. India could not be assured that Hasina’s asylum in any of these countries would be the right decision.

Subsequently, discussions progressed significantly with another country, which is not known to be a close friend of India – Qatar, a highly influential economic power in the Middle East.

While there has been no breakthrough in the “informal” discussions with Qatar regarding granting political asylum to Hasina, the talks have not completely fallen through either. These complex negotiations are still ongoing.

However, if the attempt to send Hasina to a suitable third country ultimately fails, India is mentally preparing to grant her political asylum and allow her to stay in the country. After three weeks of Sheikh Hasina’s arrival in Delhi, this is the essence of India’s stance.

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