The Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami–led 11-party alliance is narrowly ahead of the BNP-led alliance in the race for the 13th Parliamentary Election, according to a pre-election survey released by the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD).
The survey projected that the Jamaat-led alliance is leading in 105 parliamentary constituencies, while the BNP-led alliance is ahead in 101. A tight contest is expected in 75 constituencies, and other political parties are likely to secure 19 seats, the survey found.
The findings were unveiled Monday morning at a program held at the Fars Hotel in Purana Paltan, Dhaka.
Overall, the vote difference between the two major alliances stood at 0.2 percentage points. The BNP-led alliance enjoyed the support of 44.1% of voters, while 43.9% back the Jamaat-led alliance. Support for the Jatiya Party–led alliance stood at 1.7%, and around 6.5% of respondents remain undecided.
The nationwide survey covered all 300 parliamentary constituencies and included responses from 63,115 voters, of whom 57.59% were male and 42.41% female. Voter turnout intentions appear high, with 92% saying they plan to cast ballots. Four percent said they would not vote, while 2.5% were undecided.
For analytical purposes, constituencies with a vote margin exceeding 10% were categorized as “safe seats,” while those with a margin under 10% were considered highly competitive.
The survey found gender and demographic patterns in voter preference. Male voters leaned toward the BNP-led alliance, while female voters slightly favored the Jamaat-led alliance. Urban voters tended to support the BNP-led alliance, whereas the Jamaat-led alliance held a slight advantage in rural areas.
Religious demographics revealed that the Jamaat-led alliance enjoyed stronger support among Muslim and Christian voters, while Hindu and Buddhist voters were more inclined toward the BNP-led alliance.
Among young voters aged 18–29, 51% backed the Jamaat-led alliance compared with 38% for the BNP-led alliance. The BNP-led alliance led among voters aged 30–59, while voters aged 60 and above showed near-equal support for both alliances.
Educational background also influenced preferences. Support for the Jamaat-led alliance increased with higher educational attainment, particularly among graduate and postgraduate voters, whereas the BNP-led alliance performed better among those with little or no formal education.
Regarding key factors influencing their vote, 71% of respondents cited candidate competence as the primary consideration, followed by party ideology (47%). When asked about expectations from the next government, 67% prioritized controlling commodity prices, 53% cited improvements in law and order, 52% emphasized anti-corruption measures, 48% highlighted job creation, and 37% mentioned curbing extortion.
The survey also found that 74.9% of respondents were aware of the upcoming referendum. Among them, 89.6% said they would vote “Yes,” while 9.1% indicated they would vote “No.”
IILD said the survey aimed to provide an overall picture of public sentiment, identify key factors influencing voter decisions, and offer projections on electoral outcomes ahead of the 2026 national election.
