A nationwide survey has showed BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman leading the race for Bangladesh’s next prime minister, with public confidence in the fairness and safety of the upcoming February 12 election also on the rise.
The People’s Election Pulse Survey (Round 3), conducted by Innovision Consulting between January 16 and 27, interviewed 5,147 respondents across all eight divisions via phone (CATI). It found that 47.6% of voters favored Tarique Rahman for prime minister, followed by Shafiqur Rahman of the Jamaat–NCP alliance at 22.5%, while 22.2% remained undecided.
Voter confidence in the electoral process has strengthened significantly. About 72.3% trust the interim government to hold impartial polls, 74.4% believe police and local administration will act neutrally, and 82.3% feel safe casting their ballots. Reflecting this optimism, 93.3% of respondents intend to vote.
In parliamentary seat preferences, the BNP-led alliance leads with 52.8% support among decided voters, while the Jamaat–NCP alliance holds 31.0%. About 13.2% declined to reveal their choice, representing a potentially decisive “floating” bloc.
The survey also highlights notable voter shifts since 2024. Around 32.9% of former Awami League supporters now back the BNP, while 13.2% have moved toward the Jamaat–NCP camp. Gen Z voters (18–28) show strong awareness of the election, though slightly lower voting intent at 91.6%.
Despite these trends, Innovision analysts caution that the election remains “anybody’s game.” Roughly 30% of respondents across all survey rounds did not disclose a preference, and high voter volatility within the Jamaat–NCP camp could influence outcomes, especially in competitive constituencies.
Key survey data at a glance
- Voter turnout intent: Will vote 93.3%, Will not vote 4.8%, Undecided 1.9%
- Election confidence: Govt impartial 72.3%, Police/admin impartial 74.4%, Feel safe 82.3%
- Party preference: BNP & alliance 52.8%, Jamaat–NCP 31.0%, Independents 1.5%, Islami Andolan 1.0%, Undecided 13.2%
- Most suitable to form govt: BNP & alliance 51.7%, Jamaat–NCP 30.4%, No opinion 15.6%
- Prime Minister preference: Tarique Rahman 47.6%, Shafiqur Rahman 22.5%, Nahid Islam 2.7%, Cannot say 22.2%
- Referendum intent: Yes 59.5%, No 6.8%, Undecided 33.7%
