Bangladesh could save an estimated Tk753.75 crore over 20 years by installing solar power systems at public universities, National University-affiliated colleges and selected urban areas, according to an assessment presented in Dhaka on Thursday.
The proposed installations would have a combined capacity of 132.61 megawatt-peak (MWp) and require an estimated initial investment of Tk731 crore. They would cover 31 public universities, 150 colleges affiliated with the National University, Shailkupa municipality and Rajshahi city.
The assessment was presented at a citizen dialogue organized by the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB) at the Dhaka Reporters Unity auditorium on October 15.
The proposed systems are estimated to generate 192.7 million units of electricity in the first year and around 3.7 billion units over 20 years. The assessment estimates that electricity could be generated at around Tk4 per unit, depending on the project and installation type.
Universities and colleges offer significant solar potential
The assessment identifies 52.50MWp of potential solar capacity across 31 public universities, requiring an estimated investment of Tk288 crore.
For 150 National University-affiliated colleges, it identifies a further 51.12MWp of capacity, with projected annual generation exceeding 71.4 million units of electricity.
The estimated levelized cost of electricity is Tk4.04 per unit for the university projects and Tk4.15 per unit for the college projects.
The assessment also examines installations in Shailkupa municipality and Rajshahi city. Shailkupa has an estimated potential of 4.36MWp through rooftop, ground-mounted and floating solar installations, while the potential identified for Rajshahi is 24.63MWp.
The estimated cost of electricity is Tk4 per unit for Shailkupa and Tk4.04 per unit for Rajshahi. Electricity generated through floating solar installations in Shailkupa is estimated to cost Tk4.75 per unit.
Together, the proposed installations across the universities, colleges and the two urban areas would bring the estimated capacity to 132.61MWp.
The estimates are based on site assessments, electricity-generation simulations and financial calculations. Actual generation and costs could vary depending on operating conditions, maintenance, financing arrangements and grid connectivity.
Projects could generate Tk2,777 crore in electricity sales
The assessment estimates that the proposed projects could generate Tk2,777 crore in electricity sales over 20 years, assuming a benchmark selling price of Tk7.50 per unit.
The projected sales revenue should not be treated as net profit, as operating expenses, financing costs, taxes, insurance and equipment replacement would have to be deducted.
The estimated savings of Tk753.75 crore are based on a comparison between an assumed alternative electricity-generation cost of Tk10 per unit and a solar electricity purchase price of Tk7.50 per unit. This produces an estimated difference of Tk2.50 per unit.
The assessment's savings estimate depends on the projected generation and the assumptions used in the financial calculations. Actual savings would depend on which sources of electricity solar power replaces and which costs can be avoided.
Government considers further solar expansion
Power Division Secretary Mirana Mahrook, the chief guest at the dialogue, said the government was expanding solar power initiatives and had considered proposals from stakeholders.
She said the government had taken initiatives, including measures to reduce import duties, and would consider further proposals to support solar power development.
On the benchmark price for merchant power, Mahrook said Tk7.50 per unit was reasonable under current conditions. She added that the price could decline as incentives and facilities improved.
The proposed projects would allow institutions and urban areas to generate electricity through solar installations, but their financial viability would depend on the cost of equipment, long-term maintenance and arrangements for purchasing the electricity produced.
Investors raise payment, security and maintenance concerns
CAB energy adviser M Shamsul Alam said rooftop solar electricity could cost around Tk4.50 per unit. He said solar power could reduce dependence on fuel purchases and protect consumers from volatility in international fuel markets.
Alam also emphasized the importance of energy conservation. However, he questioned whether government agencies had sufficient capacity to maintain solar installations under the capital expenditure (capex) model.
Omera LPG Chief Executive Officer Masudur Rahim identified maintenance, equipment security and payment guarantees as barriers to investment.
He raised concerns about investor security when solar installations are placed on buildings owned by others. The theft of electrical transformers and cables was another concern, while delayed payments or unpaid electricity bills could undermine investors' ability to recover their costs.
Other entrepreneurs at the dialogue also stressed the need for reliable payment arrangements, transparent contracts and clearly defined maintenance responsibilities.
These concerns highlight the importance of establishing clear agreements among investors, electricity purchasers and the institutions hosting solar installations before projects begin operating.
The assessment indicates that technical potential and projected costs alone will not determine whether the installations succeed. Financing, secure equipment, dependable payments and clearly assigned operational responsibilities will also affect long-term performance.
Solar projects could reduce carbon emissions
The proposed installations are estimated to avoid around 2.3 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions over 20 years, based on an emissions factor of 0.62 tons per megawatt-hour.
The actual reduction would depend on the sources of electricity displaced by solar generation and the composition of the electricity grid's generation mix over the projects' operating lives.
Long-term performance would also depend on maintenance, grid connections, transparent procurement processes and independent monitoring, according to the assessment's implementation considerations.
CAB Secretary General Advocate Humayun Kabir Bhuiyan chaired the dialogue, while CAB research coordinator Shuvo Kibria moderated it.
