Though the country’s economy did not get back the real momentum in the outgoing year, it showed the signs of stability and its sustainability largely depends on socio-political stability in the coming days, said economists and business leaders.
“Though we haven’t seen a big jump from the previous year but a possibility has emerged this year. I see a brighter growth prospect in the coming year,” Director General of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) Dr Mustafa K Mujeri told the news agency.
He, however, said it will be difficult to maintain what has been achieved in the outgoing year if there is no political and social stability in the country. “If we can maintain the current trend, we’ ll be able to march towards our economic targets in a faster pace.”
Former Finance Adviser Dr AB Mirza Azizul Islam said in Bangladesh economic date is calculated on fiscal-year basis but not on calendar year.
Mirza Aziz, however, said he does not see any big momentum in the country’s economy, and cited a number of reasons in favour of his understanding.
He said the revenue collection target of Tk 149,720 crore for fiscal 2014-15 is unlikely to be achieved, while the overall situation in the country’s financial sector is worrisome.
“The capital deficit of banks, especially state-owned ones, and the number of classified loans are on the rise,” he said adding that it indicates that bad days are still there in doing business and borrowers are unable to payback loans.
The renowned economist also said though the private sector credit flow witnessed a little bit of rise, it is still not satisfactory and is far behind the central bank’s target of private sector credit growth.
He said export growth almost hit the zero level though remittance inflow has increased a bit but it is not sure whether it will be sustainable or not.
“Considering all these factors, the GDP growth will be close to 6% in the current fiscal year,” Mirza Aziz said.
BIDS DG Dr Mujeri, however, thinks the economy is getting back its usual pace though all the economic indicators were depressed and standstill in the previous year due to political instability.
“I find the pace of economic activities in this year almost satisfactory. But we need to maintain the pace,” he added.
Both Mirza Aziz and Dr Mujeri think that inflation will come down in the coming days.
FBCCI President Kazi Akram Uddin Ahmed thinks the country’s economy is now on a stronger base following the joint efforts of the public and private sectors.
He said the FBCCI will continue to put in its efforts to bring down bank interest rate to single digit for expediting industrialisation and contributing to the economy more.
Dhaka Chamber of Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) thinks boosting investment for higher economic growth still remains a big challenge for the current fiscal year.
“The government needs to take all necessary steps to attract more domestic and foreign investment in the country,” said DCCI President Hossain Khaled.
The DCCI observed that banks are charging excessive interest on credit that discourages the private sector borrowers to go for fresh investment.
