The world is facing an unprecedented outbreak of the Ebola virus, with more than 3,400 deaths so far and an estimated five new cases being reported every hour in Sierra Leone.
Infections and potential cases have now been reported as far afield as the Australia, Spain and the US – which this week also suffered its first death.
Philip Hammond, the Foreign Secretary, has warned that the virus will become “much more widespread” and claim “many, many more victims” if more is not done to bring it under control, and experts say we need to address the possibility of cases arriving in the UK, The Independent reported.
But as the British government resists calls for major national airports to follow the American lead and start screening incoming passengers for the disease, just what are the risks to Britain, West Africa and the rest of the world?
Just how deadly is the Ebola virus?
The strain of the Ebola virus involved in the current outbreak in West Africa has a mortality rate of 50% – though rates for the outbreaks since 1976 have varied from 20 to 90%.
The disease was at its deadliest when it was first discovered – in part at least because no one knew the best way to deal with it.
Since then, we have developed strategies of barrier nursing, quarantine, protective equipment and contact tracing – and we know that these are enough to contain outbreaks if they are employed early enough.
That’s because of the way Ebola is spread. Though highly contagious if it is given the chance to enter the body, it can only do so through the direct transferral of bodily fluids such as vomit, sweat or blood – making it much easier to contain than air-borne viruses like avian flu.
The reason the current outbreak has become so vast is simple – it was left unchecked for at least three months before being reported to the World Health Organisation.
The fact that it has been allowed to get a major foothold in West Africa – sprouting up in countries without the medical infrastructure to deal with it – is the reason it has become such a deadly prospect there.
But there is no risk of something similar happening in the UK, Europe, the US or anywhere where systems of isolation and treatment are more established and – now – alert to the danger.
Where will it spread to next?
While we know how to stop Ebola from killing more than a handful of people if it is caught early, now that there have been more than 7,000 cases reported in West Africa it is inevitable that some cases will be carried further afield.
Dr Edward Wright, a senior lecturer in Medical Microbiology at the University of Westminster who has been working to develop harmless versions of viruses like Ebola for the past 10 years, admits that “we have no experience of dealing with anything like this before.”
He says that it is “likely” Ebola will arrive in the UK, but that it is almost impossible to predict a precise timeframe – or even a particular point of entry.
“A US university said that based on global travel patterns and London being a hub for international flights, there is a 15 to 50% chance of a UK Ebola case by the end of this month.
“But that same report said on 23 September that there was a 10% chance of a case in the US – and on 24 September Thomas Duncan arrived from Liberia carrying the disease.
“I think it is likely there will be a UK case – but it’s very difficult to predict when or even where.”
Dr Wright says that, now that cases have been confirmed in the US and Spain, outside Africa the UK is the next country after France in terms of the most likely places the disease will spread to next.
