Bangladesh could suffer annual economic losses of 2% of the annual gross domestic product by 2050, and over 9% by 2100, due to climate change, according to a new study.
However, if the global mitigation actions, including reductions in human emissions of greenhouse gases, are successfully implemented, those losses could be limited to just over 2% by 2100, it says.
The Maldives and Nepal would be the hardest hit, losing up to 12.6% and 9.9% of their economies, respectively, annually, by 2100. India would lose 8.7%, Bhutan 6.6%, and Sri Lanka 6.5%.
The study titled “Assessing the Costs of Climate Change and Adaptation in South Asia” conducted by the Asian Development Bank was released yesterday at a press conference in the capital.
The study assessed impacts of climate change and economic costs and benefits of climate change covering Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
The report predicts that the six countries would see an average economic loss of around 1.8% of their collective GDP by 2050, rising sharply to 8.8% by 2100 if the world continues on its current fossil fuel-intensive path.
Without changes to current global behaviour, Bangladesh would see annual economic costs equivalent to 2% of its GDP by 2050, increasing to 9.4% by 2100, it says.
“The human and financial toll can be even higher if the damage from floods, droughts, and other extreme weather events is included,” said Bindu Lohani, ADB vice-president for knowledge management and sustainable development.
While the needs and investments required for adaptation would depend on global mitigation efforts, early investment could help mitigate large economic damages in later decades, he said.
He said the expected rise in frequency and severity of extreme climate events “calls for wide-ranging action including stepped up safety net programs for the poor who are most at risk.”
By 2050, more than 64% of urban residents in Asia live in low-lying coastal zones of flood plains, including cities like Dhaka, the report states.
“Rapid urban growth has also caused other environmental problems due to industrial activity and waste generation, which must be tackled,” said Lohani.
A one-meter-level rise would cause permanent inundation of nearly 1% of the land area in Bangladesh, while it would affect as much as 36%.
The temperature is projected to rise from 0.9°C to 1.9°C by 2030, from 1.6°C to 2.5°C by 2050 and from 2.9°C to 4.2°C by 2080 in the country.
A temperature increase of 4°C would cause significant decrease in production – some 28% for rice and 68% for wheat.
The division with the largest area permanently affected by a one-meter sea level rise would be Khulna, while Dhaka could see up to 14% of its territory temporarily inundated with its large population facing the greatest risks.
More extreme weather events would also damage forests, wetlands and the world’s largest mangrove forest, the Sundarbans, which provides income and nutrition to millions of people and a cushion against rural poverty.
The report projected that the coastal population in Bangladesh could grow to about 4.39 crore in 2015 and 6.08 crore in 2050.
South Asia will need to spend at least $73bn, or an average of 0.86% of its GDP, every year between now and 2100 to adapt to the negative impacts.
On the other hand, if countries act together to keep the rise in global temperatures below 2.5°C, the cost of the region shielding itself from the worst of the impacts would be nearly halved to around 40.6bn, or 0.48% of GDP.
The report does not provide detailed adaptation cost projections on a country or sector basis, although in the energy sector it notes that a rising gap between demand and supply could see Bangladesh face an annual adaptation bill of over $89m in the 2030s, rising to over $363m in the 2050s.
The study details adaptive measures that the country could take to protect its sensitive agriculture sector, including the introduction of drought-, flood- and saline-tolerant crops and crop and aquaculture diversification.
Annual rice production could increase by as much as 16% in Nepal’s hills and mountains by 2080, but drop as much as 23% in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Sri Lanka by that time.
Environment and Forests Minister Anwar Hossain Manju said climate change poses an urgent need for increased investment and multinational capacity, and stronger government and private sector policies, to manage the impending impacts and consequences of climate change.
He said currently about $1bn of climate funds were operational in the country, including $350m from its own resources.
Over the last 35 years, the government invested over $10m to make Bangladesh less vulnerable to natural disasters, he added.
ADB Country Director Kazuhiko Higuchi and Principle Climate Change Specialist of ADB Mafuzuddin Ahmed were present at the report launching ceremony.
