A European Union draft deal with Turkey to stop migrants reaching Greece introduces a harder edge of coercion to what critics have derided as a hitherto feeble EU response to a crisis tearing it apart.
Just last week, some saw European Council President Donald Tusk running short on ideas when he urged would-be migrants: “Do not come to Europe.” UKIP, a party campaigning to take Britain out of the EU at a June referendum, said his “weak plea” was “too little too late to stop the vast migrant flow into Europe”.
Yet what Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu called a “game-changing” plan for Turkey to forcibly take back not only economic migrants who make it to Greek islands off its coast but even refugees from Syria, who will then suffer disadvantages, is the strongest move yet to change the calculus of migration.
If the plan is agreed, and if it works, taking to a boat from a Turkish beach at the cost of life savings to a smuggler - and possibly of life itself - would no longer be a ticket to a better life in Germany but a rapid round trip to Turkey. There, those returned would be, in the words of EU officials, “at the back of the line” for legal asylum and resettlement in Europe.
Many are concerned about a quickfire process of deporting everyone back to Turkey with little regard for individuals.
But 1.2m people reached the EU last year to claim asylum amid chaotic scenes on beaches and on the long trek north from Greece through the Balkans. It has set EU states at odds, shut long-uncontrolled borders and fuelled nationalist sentiment among voters across the bloc. Leaders’ patience is thin.
Deterrence
An earlier EU plan foresaw deportation back to Turkey reserved for those, such as Pakistanis or North Africans, with little likelihood of winning refugee status in the EU - though in practice making such distinctions has proven problematic.
The new plan would see even Syrians and others with stronger asylum claims being shipped with little ceremony back across straits, now being demonstratively patrolled by Nato warships.
To force back crowds that last year numbered up to 20,000 a day seems impracticable. But EU officials said the key was to dissuade people from travelling in the first place.
For every Syrian sent back from a Greek island in future, another Syrian would be entitled to a legal, safe trip to Europe. That could be a rather small number if deterrence works, so EU leaders agreed to consider also resettling larger numbers.
For Europeans, the deal could help end a crisis that has jeopardised their cherished Schengen passport-free zone.
Dirty deal?
Turkey is seeking in return some €6bn to help improve the lives of refugees over the next three years - twice as much as a two-year deal with the EU struck in November, as well as the opening of new “chapters” in its long-stalled negotiation to join the European Union.
Several European governments have strong reservations about the Turkish proposals. Cyprus is wary about lifting its veto on parts of the accession process as long as Ankara does not end a refusal to recognise or trade with Cyprus, diplomats said. France, sceptical of Turkey ever joining the EU, is resistant to a rapid easing of visa requirements for Turkey. . Britain, too, where Prime Minister David Cameron is campaigning to persuade voters to back continued EU membership on June 23, is wary of newspaper headlines suggesting 75m Turks may soon be travelling more easily around Europe.
