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Dhaka Tribune

Elections too close to call

Update : 08 Feb 2016, 08:46 PM

If elections were held tomorrow, survey responses suggest that it would be a tight affair, with a likely winner impossible to predict with any level of certainty, according to the just released Bangla Tribune poll.

Among those who were decided, the results favoured the Awami League with 28.3% support, with the BNP five points behind at 23.1% support.

However, a whopping 41.6% said they were undecided about who they would vote for or declined to state a voting preference, meaning that the overall electoral picture remains unclear.

According to an opinion poll conducted by the Dhaka Tribune one year ago on the completion of the current government’s first year in office, the ruling party would have got 41.3% votes and BNP 33.7% if an election were to be held at that time, with 8.5 declining to state a voting preference.

The gap between the two major parties thus appears to have diminished marginally.

More significantly, perhaps, almost five times as many respondents were disinclined to proffer a response compared to last year’s poll.

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In the seven divisional headquarters where respondents were polled, the AL and BNP ran neck and neck at roughly 25% of the vote each, with almost 43% again declining to state their preference.

Breaking down the survey results by division, the nationwide pattern of a slight AL advantage over the BNP, with over 40% declining to respond held steady in every division, with the exception of Sylhet, where the BNP outnumbered the AL by two to one, or 48% to 24%, with only 22% declining to respond.

In response to another survey question, some three-fifths of all respondents said elections held under the AL government would not be fair.

It should be noted that politics remains a key issue on people’s minds. 

Half of all respondents nationwide identified politics, in one form or another, as the most important theme for concern. 

Almost 30% identified political stability as the key issue, with another 20% saying parliamentary elections were the most important issue facing the country. 

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