Iran’s release from sanctions testifies to its new relationship with the United States as it moves from pariah state to regional power, a status that could come at the cost of Saudi Arabia, Washington’s chief Arab ally.
Enemies and allies alike must adjust to Iran becoming an uninhibited power broker in the Middle East after its nuclear deal with world powers and Saturday’s lifting of sanctions that bring it to the top table of international politics.
The swift release last week of US Navy sailors after they drifted into Iranian waters marked the new era in relations following decades of hostility with the West.
All this left deep scars and incited hostility towards Iran as an outlaw, in the region and the world. Yet last week’s naval incident contrasted to 2007 when Iran captured British sailors in similar circumstances, but accused of them of spying and held them for two weeks.
The hiccup over the American sailors was easily contained by the new rapprochement and “summarises the emergence of a new relationship between Washington and Tehran”, said Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East expert at the London School of Economics.
No longer a spoiler?
Washington remains far from enamoured of the mullahs ruling in Tehran, and is formally committed to Iran’s arch-rival, Saudi Arabia. But Iran’s attractions are both political and economic: a country that is “a potential regional superpower, and an emerging market with huge potential along similar lines to Turkey,” said Gerges.
Saudi Arabia, however, remains implacably at loggerheads with Iran. Its rigid Wahhabi Sunni Muslim clerical leaders treat Shias as heretics, not far short of how Dae’sh jihadis regard Shias as idolaters to be exterminated.
The Saudis have been badly rattled by Iran’s success in forging a Shia axis stretching from Iraq through Syria to Lebanon, where Tehran’s paramilitary ally Hezbollah is also the strongest political force.
The execution this month of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a dissident Saudi Shia cleric, has further poisoned relations with Iran.
On the defensive
While Iranian confidence grows, Riyadh appears defensive - and unpredictable since last year’s succession of the elderly King Salman, who has vested vast power in his young son, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi watchers say.
“There is a widespread perception that Saudi Arabia is pursuing chaotic, counter-productive policies,” said Gerges, and that Wahhabism lies behind the rise of al Qaeda and Dae’sh, with the Saudi leadership lacking experience and wisdom.
“The Saudis are really behaving with a sense of siege, reacting to events as if each was the end of the world,” Gerges said, “lashing out angrily and recklessly, with no long-term perspective.”
Iran, by contrast “believes it is a rising power, that the world needs it.” Tehran also appears to have grasped that the huge increase in US shale oil production has freed America from its dependence on Saudi crude.
New dilemmas
Rivalry between Sunni and Shia Islam goes back many centuries. In modern times, this often translated into a strategic contest between Saudi Arabia’s Wahhabi version of Sunni orthodoxy and the Shia theocracy of Iran.
Iran successes in countries such as Lebanon, Iraq and Syria have come as these states were cracked open by war or invasion, leading to de facto partition. Tehran has advanced its interests by bypassing state institutions with unstable alternatives such as militias, its principal weapon of influence.
Above all, Tehran needs to win acceptance in the Middle East as a legitimate and constructive regional power.
However, The Iranians have really shown sophistication, cleverness, bargaining ability and gamesmanship ... Iran has established itself as a major player in its own environment and has the capacity to be major player in the world economy.
