A betting man would have demanded long odds a year ago on Sri Lanka completing a peaceful transition of power after years of international isolation under the authoritarian leader who brought a bloody end to the country’s civil war.
But in last week’s parliamentary elections, the bespectacled Maithripala Sirisena, who came from nowhere to win the presidency in January, confounded the doubters, thwarting a comeback by predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa, a civil war hero to many Sri Lankans but war criminal to others.
Rajapaksa, who changed the constitution in a bid to retain power in the Indian Ocean island of 21m, had set his sights on becoming premier of a government led by his Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP).
But the unassuming Sirisena, who started out as a “positive fluke” selected by the broad-based civic movement that campaigned to end the Rajapaksa era, has surprised even close aides with a Machiavellian ability to win with a weak hand.
It was only on election day that Sirisena, who had succeeded Rajapaksa as SLFP leader, purged Rajapaksa loyalists who controlled the party’s executive and for months had refused to bend to his will.
Armed with a strong mandate for a coalition headed by Ranil Wickremesinghe and his United National Party (UNP), Sirisena should now be able to push through reforms to open up government and simplify Sri Lanka’s complex election rules.
Minority Tamils and Muslims have rallied behind the coalition.
Defeat for Rajapaksa will keep Sri Lanka on a non-aligned foreign policy course and loosen its ties with China, which during his rule pumped in billions of dollars to turn the island into a maritime outpost.
As recently as last month, warning lights were flashing that Sirisena lacked the nerve to stop Rajapaksa capitalising on the parliamentary vote, which the 63-year-old president had called early to seek a stronger mandate for reform.
But, in a July 14 speech, Sirisena vowed not to name Rajapaksa prime minister, even if the SLFP won.
Although Wickremesinghe’s UNP won by a margin of only 3%, Sirisena’s rejection of Rajapaksa may have been enough to sway the result.
“If the president is saying he is not going to name your guy prime minister, why would you go out and vote?” said one Western diplomat.
Sirisena’s presidency began inauspiciously; having walked out of Rajapaksa’s government to run against him, he was forced into ‘cohabiting’ with a UNP minority government that controlled just a third of seats in parliament.
Sirisena’s political machinations may, however, test the SLFP to breaking point. Rajapaksa, 69, has ruled out retirement, increasing the risk of a more abrupt political realignment, or even a party split.
