Nearly 10 months after the political transition of August 5, 2024, Bangladesh’s economy is increasingly feeling the fallout from the collapse of a business class closely tied to the ousted Awami League government, with dozens of top industrialists now in prison, in hiding or abroad -- triggering a growing debate over whether accountability or economic recovery should take priority.
Business leaders, economists and political figures remain sharply divided over whether fugitive and jailed businessmen accused of corruption, money laundering and political patronage should be allowed back into normal economic activity to help revive slowing industries and investment.
The debate comes as Bangladesh’s economy struggles through falling private investment, stagnant industrial expansion, declining credit flow and weakening consumer demand during the first 100 days of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party government led by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman.
Following the post-August 5 crackdown and multiple legal cases linked to financial corruption and alleged political favoritism under the previous regime, several of the country’s most influential business figures have either been arrested, fled abroad or disappeared from public view.
Those currently in prison include Salman F Rahman of Beximco Group, former textile minister Golam Dastagir Gazi of Gazi Group, former Dhaka North mayor Atiqul Islam and several other prominent business figures.
Meanwhile, owners linked to major corporate groups including S Alam Group and Summit Group are reportedly staying abroad, while others are allegedly running businesses from hiding.
Industry insiders say the sudden disappearance of many politically connected business leaders has disrupted supply chains, slowed factory operations and deepened uncertainty across the commercial sector.
Several factories outside Dhaka have reportedly reduced production or shut down entirely, while new industrial investment has nearly stalled amid policy uncertainty, high inflation, energy shortages and elevated borrowing costs.
Private sector credit growth has already fallen to one of its lowest levels in recent years, with commercial lending rates now hovering between 14% and 16%, discouraging fresh investment and expansion.
Stakeholders say the slowdown is now affecting employment generation, production, imports and government revenue collection simultaneously.
Political analyst Saiful Haque said businessmen facing allegations of corruption and money laundering must undergo proper legal proceedings, but argued that mechanisms should also be explored to keep productive industries functioning.
“While legal processes continue, ways should also be explored to allow them to contribute to the economy,” he said, adding that the government could take initiatives to ensure economic continuity while maintaining accountability.
Others strongly oppose any move that could appear to politically rehabilitate controversial business figures.
Saif Mostafiz of the National Citizen Party alleged that several business groups benefited from state-backed corruption under the previous government and should face trial before any discussion of reintegration.
“Stolen money must be recovered, and fugitives must be brought back,” he said.
“Instead of relying on corrupt businessmen, the state should support new entrepreneurs.”
Hamidur Rahman Azad of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami also argued there could be no sustainable economic recovery without accountability.
Political observers say the BNP government now faces a delicate balancing act, reviving investor confidence and stabilizing the economy while maintaining its anti-corruption position against figures associated with the previous regime.
The debate intensified further during a recent webinar organized by the Power and Participation Research Centre, where economists and business leaders warned that declining exports, weak private credit growth and persistent investment uncertainty are pushing the economy into a prolonged slowdown.
Former Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association president Fazlul Hoque said both domestic political uncertainty and global instability were placing growing pressure on the economy.
Analysts warn that unless investor confidence returns soon, Bangladesh risks deeper industrial stagnation and rising unemployment -- regardless of who controls the country’s largest business empires.
