A new research reveals growing public support for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina ahead of the general elections but says “dissatisfaction” over Bangladesh's direction grows due to the price hike.
The survey by the US-based International Republican Institute (IRI) also shows the opposition’s popularity is growing. There is also a demand for a caretaker government for election oversight. But a majority of the respondents believe that the opposition parties should join the polls even in the absence of the caretaker government.
Bangladeshis are interested in voting in the next national election “if electoral transparency and fairness are improved,” according to the survey, results of which are available on the IRI’s website.
Some 70% of Bangladeshis think that PM Hasina is doing a "good job", a 4% increase from the survey conducted by the IRI four years back. But approval of the opposition has risen from 36% in September 2019 to 63% in this poll.
The IRI is an American nonprofit organization funded and supported by the United States federal government. Most of its board is drawn from the Republican Party.
The survey results come ahead of the national elections to be held by January next year. The ruling Awami League and the BNP are at loggerheads over the election-time government. The Awami League says it will follow the constitution while the oppositions demand an election-time interim government.
The survey was conducted on behalf of IRI’s Center for Insights in Survey Research under the supervision of Redstone Scientific between March 1 and April 6.
Data was collected using a multi-stage stratified probability sample through in-person, in-home interviews. The sample consists of 5,000 respondents aged 18 and older and is representative of voting-age adults nationally. The sample was distributed into 500 primary sampling units (PSU) from all 64 districts of all eight divisions. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 1.4% for the full sample, and the response rate was 47%.
Key findings
IRI says for the first time since 2014, their survey shows that a majority of Bangladeshis believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Only 44% say Bangladesh is headed in the right direction, down from 76% in September 2019.
Rising prices are the primary reason for this rise in pessimism. A focus group participant said, “My husband’s salary did not increase, but the price of daily commodities is increasing daily.”
Among the pessimists, 50% cited price hikes as the reason, followed by 13% for corruption. Only 4% cited lack of democracy as the reason while 3% say they cannot express opinions, and 3% consider poor law and order situation.
Among the optimists, 19% were because of the overall development, 14% for improved living standards, 12% for Digital Bangladesh, 11% think the economy is better and 7% because of the construction of Padma Bridge.
Around 92% of respondents said they are likely to vote in the next national election (57% answered “very likely”) if electoral transparency and fairness are improved.
Those who do not intend to vote cite election fraud and voter registration issues as key barriers to voting.
A plurality of 44% support the return of Bangladesh’s caretaker government election system, but a majority, 55%, also believe the opposition should join the election regardless of election administration.
“It is encouraging to see public support for free, fair, and competitive elections,” said IRI’s South Asia Director Steve Cima.
“These findings underscore the fundamental desire of Bangladeshis to have a real choice at the ballot box this winter.”
Analysts believe the rise in the approval rate of the Prime Minister in a span of five years validates her "successful" Covid management, a raft of infrastructure projects, and the rolling out of a number of safety net schemes.
On the government’s performance in different sectors, the endorsement for Awami League also stood “high”.
A staggering 87% (strongly and somewhat) approve of the role of the government in the development of roads, highways and bridges, while 86% approve of the work of the government in ensuring the availability of drinking water.
On ensuring the availability of electricity, 84% endorsed the role of the government. Furthermore, 77% approved of the efforts put in by the government in driving quality healthcare.
A total of 81% endorsed the performance of the government in improving education, while 54% contended that the government’s fight against violent extremism was a success and 60% approved of the initiatives by the government in keeping the peace.
The role of the government in strengthening democracy in the country was approved by 54% of the respondents, and 52% approved of the role of the government in preventing enforced disappearances.
Moreover, 59% “expressed satisfaction” with the current choices on the emergence of new political parties.
Over the work of civil society organizations, defined as a local, national, or international groups of people who organize to support a particular interest group or issue, as many as 62% of respondents observed “for the most part they represent the interest of the elites”, in contrast to 35% who believed “they represent the interests of the ordinary people”.
On the corruption issue, 58% of the respondents observed that their lives have been impacted “not at all” by corruption in the past 12 months, with corruption defined as having to do a favour, give a gift or pay a bribe because someone misuses their positions for political gains. However, 9% said they are impacted on a monthly basis.
