The Pakistani military and its associates among the Urdu-speaking Biharis and Bengali community were baffled by heavy fighting in the first week of December 1971 as the guerrillas gained control of half of the country with the help of Indian troops.
“The Paks continue to bitterly contest Indian gains in East Pakistan, but the consensus among veteran military observers and reporters is that the end of the Pak Army's effective resistance may come sooner than expected,” read a memorandum sent to US President Richard Nixon by Assistant for National Security Affairs Henry Kissinger on December 8.
“CIA estimates that the Indians and guerrillas now probably control about half of the province and are progressively isolating the Pak Army as they gain control of strategic points. Our Consul General in Dacca [later renamed as Dhaka] comments that the ‘noose is obviously getting tighter'," Kissinger wrote.
Washington was worried about the fate of some 100 Americans since the UN's efforts to arrange the evacuation of foreign nationals seemed futile.
“The UN has been attempting for several days to make arrangements for the evacuation of foreign nationals in Dacca, but has failed because of Indian military operations in the area.
“At this point, the Dacca airfield is ‘unusable' and will probably require repairs during a cease-fire period before it can handle evacuation flights. The UN is gearing up for another airlift attempt, which would include some 100 Americans, but it may well turn out that evacuation by helicopters operating off an aircraft carrier is the only answer.”
On the political front, Kissinger stated that Gen Yahya had moved ahead on December 7 with his plan to establish a civilian coalition government.
The military ruler announced that his Bengali friend Nurul Amin would be the prime minister while Bhutto was chosen as deputy prime minister and foreign minister.
UN debate
At the end of a long session on December 7, the UN General Assembly approved a resolution on the Indo-Pak war, essentially the same as that vetoed in the Security Council by the Soviets. The vote was 104 in favor (including the US), 11 against (Soviet bloc minus Romania, plus Bhutan and India) and 10 abstentions, most notable of which were the UK, France and Denmark.
The resolution specifically called for a cease-fire, withdrawal of troops, and creation of necessary conditions for a voluntary return of refugees and urged the protection of civilians in the area.
Despite the impressive margin of the UN vote, it was unlikely to deter the Indians, who had already indicated that they would ignore this kind of resolution, Kissinger said.
According to a CIA report, Indian premier Indira Gandhi told her cabinet on December 6 that India would not accept such a resolution until Bangladesh is "liberated”, the southern part of Pak-held Kashmir is incorporated into India and Pakistan's military striking power is destroyed.
Fighting in the West had intensified, although the Indians still seemed to be essentially on the defensive and had not yet launched a major counter-offensive, Kissinger said.
“The Paks have mounted two substantial drives into Kashmir and seem to have made some progress. There is fighting also to the south on the Punjab plain, but the results so far are inconclusive. The Indians have, however, penetrated at least 15 miles into West Pakistan in the direction of Karachi. Both sides continue to make air strikes on the western front, but neither has yet gained the upper hand.”
At that time, China mobilized troops along the Indian border at the request of the US.
The CIA reviewed China's military position and concluded that the Chinese were not militarily prepared for a major and sustained involvement in the Indo-Pak war.
Kissinger said: “It seems clear that involvement on the scale of the 1962 invasion of India is probably beyond China's present capabilities. China does, however, retain the option of a smaller scale effort, ranging from overt troop movements and publicized preparations to aggressive patrolling and harassment of Indian border outposts on a limited diversionary attack.”
Gandhi recently told her cabinet that if the Chinese "rattled the sword", the Soviets have promised to "counter-balance" any such action, he mentioned in the memorandum.
