Early voting has reached unprecedented levels and garnered intense national interest, with turnout skyrocketing nationwide and key battlegrounds like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin reporting record participation in many cases, outpacing even 2020's figures.
Early voting could end up playing the determining role in the election outcome, as indeed all these states would become pivotal to a path of victory for either candidate. Unlike in the 2020 election, where early voting was more a function of Covid-related absentee ballots, this year's turnout is representative of intentional voter mobilization and heightened public interest, along with deeply polarized bases.
With polls showing a very close race, this year’s robust early voting underlines how every vote is fiercely engaged and how strategically important it is going to be in what promises to be one of the most hard-fought elections in recent US history.
Key reasons for the record surge in early voting
- Heightened voter mobilization
Early voting has been prioritized by both Republican and Democratic presidential campaigns on the belief that the earlier the vote is cast, the more it is most likely to be locked away from any late development that might affect how people would vote on election day.
Campaigns have invested in targeted outreach-reminding core constituencies that early voting is the best way to make sure to turn out. Democrats have targeted cities and more youthful, diverse populations, encouraging participation through texts, calls, and in-person canvassing.
Republicans, in turn, have worked on early voting in rural areas and with the older demographic in hopes of offsetting traditional Democratic advantages in mail-in ballots.
- Balancing in-person and absentee voting
The fact that this year's early vote is mostly in-person, compared to the largely absentee vote of 2020, suggests this may be a return to more traditional forms of voting, now that pandemic fears have waned.
Still, absentee ballots are significant in states that have made access to them easier. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, for example, have relaxed rules on in-person early voting to help drive this year's surge in early turnout among voters who in the past did not vote early but warmed up to the flexibility.
- Demographics with motivation
It also reflects the changing voter demographics, with younger voters, Latino voters, and suburban women saying they are voting early driven by economic concerns, social justice, and political mobilization. In a few critical states, the early votes cast by young people so far this year outpace those at the same point in 2020.
Per a new report from Tufts University, early turnout among younger demographics is strong in some states. Some of the major takeaways show that Georgia and Pennsylvania-states where Biden has a solid lead among young people-are leading the charge, while rural areas of Michigan and Arizona show upticks in early voting across older, more conservative voters.
- Strategic early vote messaging
Former President Donald Trump has sought to make amends with any past skepticism about absentee ballots by actively encouraging early voting among Republicans. The action by Trump now in claiming to be "winning among early voters" galvanizes his base and maybe sets up a narrative frame on the legitimacy of the election -- should it go against him. This "early victory" narrative, not yet supported in any final tallies, puts further pressure on voters to participate early, especially those concerned about potential challenges to election outcomes.
Overview of polling data and key issues in battleground states
The following table shows the results of recent polling from a series of battleground states, illustrating major issues that are driving voters to one candidate versus another.
Position | Topping candidate | Polling agents | Hot issues |
|---|---|---|---|
Michigan | Tipping Democrat | FiveThirtyEight, NYT/Siena | Economic security, foreign policy, feelings of Arab-American and Muslim voters |
Wisconsin | Lean Toss-up | Marquette University | Healthcare, economic growth, rural interests in manufacturing jobs |
Pennsylvania | LEAN DEMOCRAT | Emerson College/Trafalgar | Union support, energy policy, healthcare and education access |
Georgia | Leaning Republican | University of Georgia, Quinnipiac | Crime rates, suburban growth, economic revitalization |
Arizona | Toss-up | CBS News, TargetSmart | Immigration, healthcare, latino voter engagement |
Nevada | Likely Democratic | Nevada Independent | Economic recovery, costs of housing, assistance to small business |
Early voting could end up playing the determining role in the election outcome, as indeed all these states would become pivotal to a path of victory for either candidate
Michigan and the disgruntlement amongst its Muslim voters
This year, Michigan's Arab-American and South Asian Muslim communities -- in particular, Detroit and Dearborn -- are becoming key constituencies.
Traditionally a Democratic stronghold, this year disgruntlement over the Biden Administration's Middle Eastern policies -- particularly those involving Gaza -- has prompted many to reconsider their loyalty. An Arab American Institute poll revealed that Muslim voters were cooling toward Kamala Harris, with some vowing to sit out the election or go third party.
It could jeopardize Democratic hold in Michigan, which Biden narrowly took in 2020. This is especially true, as Trump has emphasized economic support to appeal to minority-owned businesses in those places.
As Dawud Walid, executive director of CAIR Michigan, said, "Our community feels politically orphaned; we're looking for leadership which resonates with our values on humanitarian issues." That's a comment that could presage a defection, or at least a turnout decline, among Muslim voters in a state where Democratic margins are usually narrow.
Implications of early voting patterns in key battleground states
- Pennsylvania and Wisconsin: Turnout trends in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin seem to indicate a strong urban-rural divide. Democratic early voting is high in urban areas, but early participation is also up in typically Republican rural areas. Union support is critical; Democrats use endorsements from labour unions, while Republicans concentrate on energy policies that appeal to rural constituents.
- Georgia and Arizona: Younger voters are turning out in high numbers in Georgia, while Latino voters are doing the same in Arizona. Those demographics skew Democratic but also show more interest in early voting. Candidates' stances on social justice and immigration reform have resonated with these groups, driving early participation. Such issues might tip the scale in Harris's favour, provided her campaign can keep the youth and Latino populations engaged through election day.
- Nevada for economic recovery: In Nevada, the drag from the Covid-19 pandemic lingered so that economic recovery is a central issue. Early voting rates among service industry workers and small business owners, who may prioritize job security and tax reforms, indicate a high interest in the economic policies of each candidate. While Trump's tax policies appeal to small business owners, Harris's union alliances and healthcare initiatives target Las Vegas workers. Tight polling is a Nevada hallmark underlining centrality of economic messaging to each candidate's strategy.
Trump's early victory claims
Trump's early victory claims create an overseas post-election framing challenge. An early "win" narrative may fire up his base and question the legitimacy of the final results favouring Harris, which election experts warn can lead to long litigation or disputes. "Early voting patterns are instructive but not outcomes," says Costas Panagopoulos, a Northeastern University political scientist, cautioning against interpretations of early turnout trends.
With high stakes and "victory" claims by Trump adding tension, the FBI has been out in front trying to assure election security. In this vein, transparency efforts by the Bureau have aimed at a situation in which public trust will make times of increased scrutiny-less early voting trends might shift on election day and disputes arise. The FBI position underlines a joint effort to reassure voters and guarantee electoral integrity.
The final days of campaigning in key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia will be very important. If the pace keeps up, early voting could give Democrats an advantage in urban areas, while Republican efforts in the countryside mark how each state has its demographic fabric.
The 2024 election will be a testament to mobilized voters, strategic narratives, and critical battles over the role and identity of America's future leadership.
Dr Serajul I Bhuiyan is a professor and former chair of the Department of Journalism and Mass Communications at Savannah State University, Savannah, Georgia, USA.