Those who monitor what’s going on between the key parties involved in the truce and exchange talks don’t know exactly what’s going on. Everything they know comes from leaks that do not reflect the truth as much as they reflect the need of negotiators. Sometimes, what is leaked is overly optimistic not because it is, but because of the need of the parties and mediators to spread this atmosphere as a pressure factor on those who take hardline positions.
This is how things have gone since the first attempt to make a truce and exchange a success, which produced a permanent failure and a move away from completing a deal, even of a small size.
Perhaps one of the reasons why the attempts of the past have failed and the conversations of the present may fail is the imbalance between the four parties that play the role. Each has a special place in the game.
On the Arab side, Hamas is fighting on the ground and Egypt has geography. Qatar has influence on Hamas; the presence of its leadership in Doha is not a hotel accommodation, but according to a political agenda.
These three "Arab" parties face two partners in the war directly, and they are in fact one party. The Americans are fighting and mediating, and here lies the root of the imbalance between the parties of the game.
The Americans, for example, who are the owners of the last initiative announced by President Biden, and he said that it is derived from all Israeli approvals, welcomed the Arab approvals of it, but they gave the Israelis the right of interpretation of their provisions, and this put the Israelis in a double situation that they knew how to benefit from it, they are the owners of the initiative and they are the objectors to it, relying on that the American partner will automatically take responsibility for Hamas even without evidence and Netanyahu savies the charge of disability and this is what happened during the past months.
The Americans, for example, who are the owners of the latest initiative announced by President Biden, said that it was derived from all Israeli approvals. They welcomed the Arab approvals of the initiative but allowed the Israelis the right to interpret its provisions. This placed the Israelis in a dual position from which they knew how to benefit. They are both the proponents of the initiative and its objectors, relying on the American partner to automatically take responsibility for Hamas, even without evidence. This strategy allowed Netanyahu to save the charge of disability, which is what happened in the past months.
If the game continues in this way, there is no hope for a successful deal, either partially or completely. However, if the American position changes and its influence on Israel is restored, some balance may be achieved. But will America do so in the election season and the terrible break for the Democratic candidate in it?
Yousef Ramadan is the Ambassador of Palestine to Bangladesh