Bangladesh’s urban transport system is at a breaking point, and the capital, Dhaka, is at the epicenter. The deteriorating air pollution, heavy fossil-fuel dependency, and intense resistance from transport syndicates to any reform attempts have pushed the city into a cycle of chaos. The Belém Package from COP30 offers a strategic opportunity for Bangladesh to reset the trajectory. Yet, the question remains if we can seize this narrow but critical momentum to realize a just transition.
The urgency to act is undeniable, considering our current scenario. Dhaka ranked repeatedly among the most polluted capitals in recent years (according to the IQAir Global Summary 2024, Dhaka’s annual average PM2.5 concentrations were 78 µg/m³, while the WHO guideline is 5 µg/m³). While multiple sectors contribute to Dhaka’s air quality crisis, transport is one of them. Diesel buses, many older than 20 years, dominate the public transport, making the situation worse. Recent attempts to phase out these aged vehicles faced resistance as owners have no viable route to asset replacement, and transport workers fear income losses under any new system. For a country like Bangladesh, with limited resources to retrain workers or compensate owners, these are real constraints.
Transport is also the sector with the highest potential for creating green jobs and improving health outcomes if the transition is undertaken strategically. Bangladesh already has several policies relevant to climate and urban mobility, such as the National Adaptation Plan (NAP 2022–2050), Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0), National Integrated Multimodal Transport Policy 2013, and the SDGs. Several policies emphasize a reduction of fossil-fuel reliance and promoting environmentally friendly vehicles (i.e, electric vehicles) and mass transport to reduce emissions and pollution in urban areas. But, as Bangladesh’s energy mix remains heavily fossil-fuel dependent, electrification alone will not reduce carbon emissions unless the electricity supply is progressively decarbonized. These targets are largely aspirational and can be operationalized by three operational pillars.
This is where the Belém Package matters. The Belém Package, approved by 195 Parties at COP30, emphasized a just transition mechanism that puts people and equity at the center of the fight against climate change. For countries like Bangladesh, it provides legitimacy to integrate livelihood protection into climate finance requests, a pathway for sector-wide proposals to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and other climate financing entities. Bangladesh can align the national goals with COP30’s just transitions commitments. A very recent initiative is the World Bank-backed Public Transport Fund (PTF) under the Dhaka Transport Coordination Authority (DTCA). This is under the Bangladesh Clean Air Project Phase-1 and initially established with approximately Tk671 crore to end “bus wars” and support modernized public transport. The fund facilitates the deployment of 400 electric buses, introduces fixed payments to operators to reduce revenue risk, and includes BDT 85 crore for scrappage compensation for old diesel buses.
Building on this, Bangladesh can develop a blended climate finance model that will offer:
- A structured phasing out mechanism for fossil-fuel dependency (allowing operators to surrender fossil-fueled old buses in return for subsidized access to electric fleets, combining grants, concessional loans, and technical support)
- Just Transition Support Scheme (grants for short-cycle reskilling programs in EV maintenance, depot management, and digital ticketing or introduction of Cooperative ownership models, etc.)
- Coordinated roadmap for energy and infrastructure readiness (combining grants, concessional loans, and technical support for grid capacity, renewable energy alignment, and citywide EV-charging infrastructure, etc.)
Bangladesh has policies, there are international frameworks, and climate finance mechanisms that legitimize climate-friendly actions. Now, we need strategic planning, early stakeholder engagement, and policy alignment with global commitments. If we can seize the opportunity, Bangladesh could become a model example of just transitions in the Global South. The Belém Package provides the momentum. The question is whether Bangladesh can convert ambition into action before another decade of old diesel vehicles and unregulated informal practices, such as “Bangla Tesla,” lock the city into further environmental and social costs.