Voters of the Comilla-1 constituency are analyzing the past polling statistics of political parties and development activities by the incumbent lawmaker from the ruling Awami League, Major General (Retd) Mohammad Shubid Ali Bhuiyan, who is running for his third term in office.
Ahead of the 12th national election, voters assume that the results will be completely different from the past. One of the reasons behind it is the re-arrangement of constituencies.
The Comilla-1 now consists of Daudkandi and Titas upazilas, as per the new arrangements made on June 4 of this year. Previously, till the 11th national election of 2018, it was regarded as Comilla-1 (Daudkandi-Meghna).
The Meghna upazila has now been attached to the Homna upazila, which is known as Comilla-2. Before delimitation, the Comilla-1 constituency had 342,965 voters in the 11th parliamentary election, and the other had 290,026 voters.
The AL could not make significant gains in the seat in all the competitive elections, especially before 2008 because of the followers of Khandakar Mushtaque Ahmed, regarded as a traitor for his involvement with the August 15 coup plotters. His followers have always worked together with the anti-AL circle and caused trouble for the party.
However, after the retired defence officer joined the AL and won the seat in 2008, a solid organizational foundation has been developed. Currently, even at the grassroots level, the ruling party has strong committees.
In addition, in the past 14 years, the party's popularity has increased due to the extensive development in the infrastructure sector, including the construction of roads, educational institutions and upazila model mosques. Therefore, MP Shubid Ali and the party supporters believe that the “boat” symbol will win easily in the next election as well.
On the other hand, BNP leaders and supporters believe that, if the BNP participates in the election, the nomination of former minister Dr Khandkar Mosharraf Hossain, a member of the party's Standing Committee, is almost certain.
A geologist by profession, Dr Mosharraf contested the 2018 election from both Comilla-1 and Comilla-2 seats but conceded defeat. He was earlier elected four times from the Comilla-2 constituency from 1991-2001.
Potential candidates from other parties, including Jatiya Party (JaPa), Jamaat-e-Islami, Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB), and Zaker Party, are not sitting idle. They are also meeting the voters with various promises.
In the 11th general election in 2018, Shubid Ali secured 135,813 votes (55.5%) to win the seat for the third time in a row; the BNP's Mosharraf got 95,542 votes (39%) while the IAB's Bashir Ahmed bagged the third-highest vote of 4,769 (8%). Some 71.3% of the voters exercised their franchise.
The retired defence official was elected in the 2014 election, boycotted by the BNP, by defeating the AL's rebel candidate, Barrister Naeem Hasan.
In the 2008 election, Shubid Ali again defeated Dr Mosharraf by a small margin, as he got 114,818 votes (53.2%) against 96,378 (44.7%). The election saw a staggering turnout of 83.1%.
Controversies damaging reputation
Critics, however, allege that MP Shubid Ali could not maintain his clean image after coming to power. He has irked dedicated party leaders by making his son, Major (Retd) Mohammad Ali Bhuiyan, the chairman of Daudkandi Upazila Parishad twice, and calling the BNP founder and former military dictator, General Ziaur Rahman, the first president of the country.
On the other hand, the current MP is also facing controversy for not being able to take prompt measures to solve several political murders, including the killing of Titas Upazila Jubo League leader and businessman Jamal Hossain.
Apart from this, the bad condition of several important roads including the road from Shahidnagar in Daudkandi Sadar to his home Juranpur via Bhagalpur, Sholpara, Daspara and Sundalpur has also drawn severe criticisms.
Due to these reasons, some leaders and activists have expressed concern about whether Shubid Ali will get the nomination in the next election. Complaining against the nepotism of the MP, several leaders said they will seek the party ticket this time.
One of the aspirants is Engineer Abdus Sabur, the central science and technology affairs secretary of the ruling party. For the past few years, he has also been running extensive campaigns in the constituency and has managed to create a close circle among the leaders and activists.
In several local government elections, including the last UP election, a significant number of his aides have won. He told Dhaka Tribune that he is 100% optimistic about getting the nomination.
Barrister Naeem Hasan, the son of late AL leader Hasan Jamil Sattar, came second as an independent candidate in the 2014 election. Naeem said he regularly participates in all programs of the party. His father was also a devoted soul.
He alleged that there has been no development in Daudkandi as per the rate of development in the country in the last few years.
However, Naeem vowed to work for the boat symbol even if he does not get the nomination this time.
What the MP says
Dhaka Tribune talked with MP Shubid Ali about the whole issue when he claimed that there has been remarkable development in his constituency more than at any time in the past.
Countless educational institutions, roads, playgrounds, three amusement parks, construction of model mosques, elimination of waterlogging in Gouripur market, and establishment of a training centre for expatriates in Ichhapur are to name a few, he added.
Ensuring 100% electrification of every village, provision of laptops in schools, construction of the Upazila Muktijoddha Complex and indescribable development in the infrastructure sector have been carried out in the last few years.
In the meantime, the four-lane road from Daudkandi's Balda Canal to Chandpur's Matlab via Sirarchar has been completed.
However, he said that the dilapidated roads have already been renovated several times. Even so, he confirmed that these roads will be repaired again on an urgent basis.
The statement about Gen Zia was misrepresented, he claimed. He said that some murder cases are going on as per the law.
Denying the allegations of nepotism, he said that the field-level leaders and activists want him again in the next election. Therefore, he is 100% optimistic about getting the nomination.